Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

NWS ^

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 27 Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 12, 2003 ...Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters confirm that Isabel is a category five hurricane... at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 58.6 west or about 350 miles...565 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Report from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 920 mb...27.17 inches. Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico over the next several days. Repeating the 5 PM AST position...21.8 N... 58.6 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST. Forecaster Beven

[NautiNurse]

Here's your 1993 Superstorm satellite view.

[AGreatPer]

Just watched the latest update. With the blocking high in the North East moving north, I see this thing hitting around Cape Hatteras.

This succer is beautifuly formed and on track.

[My Favorite Headache]

Yes! That caught me a bit off-guard...just watching Dave on his dab of coke right now.

[My Favorite Headache]

Dave could barely vocally keep it together there...it sounded like he was trying not to laugh before the commercial break.

[Donna Lee Nardo]

Is that black object the dreaded Senator from NY on its broomstick?

[NautiNurse]

LOL--in my dreams! It's a battered palm tree.

[najida]

The evacuation was hell from Savannah....
I was with 200+ severly disabled elderly...Most had to be carried onto the buses because they were wheelchair/bed bound.

On friggin SCHOOL buses no less.

We had 1 die before we even left the property, 3 die in transit, others had at least one, if not more die from the stress. And then you have all the home health-home bound that were dumped at the hospitals with out even a note so the (few) medical staff could tell what to do. Oh, yeah...the homeless and prisoners left town on AC'd transit buses. It was so barbaric....the most helpless, sick and fragile where the ones put under the greatest stress.

Yeah, we started loading at 10 am, left town at 5pm, got to our destination at 3am the next morning. Going 3 miles an with 100 thousand other folks trapped on the same highway. I had a friend calling me from Houston every hour on my cell phone to keep me sane. Being trapped in traffic, in the dark with strangers has become my greatest nightmare.

I don't work there anymore. I refuse to ever, EVER evacuate again. There can be a catagory 12 hurricane coming, I am sitting here in my home to die thankyouverymuch..... If I don't die, I have a gas, a well and grannies homemade wine in the closet.

[Donna Lee Nardo]

Hmmmm. Dave's eyes do look downright demonish tonight. Reddish and more squinty than usual. Cantore's eyes looked a bit wild also. Perhaps they had a toast together. Or a snoot.

[kayak]

What an experience! God bless you!

[11th_VA]

I had never heard about the landslides and flooding in Virginia until I moved there.

They still have 'historical' markers in spots along rivers that indicate how high the rivers were ...

[kayak]

LOL at your tag line!

[NautiNurse]

There can be a catagory 12 hurricane coming, I am sitting here in my home to die thankyouverymuch..... If I don't die, I have a gas, a well and grannies homemade wine in the closet.

That's a pretty good description for the Key West crowd. It's way too much trouble to evacuate. Folks made their decision when they moved there.

[Lion in Winter]

I think America doesn't "do" evacuations al that well as as rule.

Sorry about the recent unpleasantness.

[Hobsonphile]

I just had TWC on. Perhaps I'm dense, but they don't seem drunk to me. *g*

[Lion in Winter]

That IS the monster!!

Thank you for posting its picture.

We were in Greenville, S.C. visiting my brother and it was a disaster there as well. Cold!! Oh, my goodness.

[dixie sass]

If you mean ethnicity, no. It is a spanish name, as in Queen Isabel

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Isabel Discussion Number 28 Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2003 radar images transmitted from a NOAA/hurricane research division flight into Isabel late this afternoon showed the development of a second concentric eyewall about 20 nm outside of the inner eyewall. The aircraft crew also reported a stepped frequency microwave radiometer measurement of a 140 kt surface wind late in the afternoon. Concurrent with this re-development of an outer eyewall...the core convection is currently weakening as it did last night at this time. In addition...microwave imagery indicates that some dry air has been infiltrating the circulation. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers are down to 6.0...and the latest CIMSS advanced objective Dvorak 3-hr average T number is also 6.0...well below category five intensity. I very much doubt that Isabel still has winds of 140 kt...but since another aircraft will be in the hurricane in just three hours...we will wait for confirmation of this apparent weakening trend. It is virtually unheard of for a hurricane to remain at category five strength for more than 30 hours. However...Isabel is expected to remain a major hurricane throughout the forecast period. The initial motion is 275/8. Isabel remains south of a deep-layer anticyclone that is providing the westward steering current. This anticyclone continues westward in step with the hurricane...and model guidance is in excellent agreement on a west to west-northwest track for the next 72 hours. By 72 hours...the evolution of a mid- to upper-level low currently over the Carolinas could play a key role in what portion of the U.S. East coast would eventually be affected by Isabel. The GFS and NOGAPS models are very similar in holding this feature in place almost a day longer than the UKMET...with the result that the former two models turn Isabel much more sharply northward than the UKMET. The GFDL turns Isabel even more sharply than the GFS and NOGAPS models...and the european model also seems to favor an earlier turn north. The official forecast has been been shifted to the right of the previous advisory track...but is still closer to the UKMET than the other guidance. In part this is to maintain continuity with previous forecasts...but also because the UKMET has been presenting a more consistent solution over the past couple of days than have the other models. Forecaster Franklin

[My Favorite Headache]

11 O'Clock positions due in 1 minute...wanna bet that it is goin west north west now?

[My Favorite Headache]

Dave is on early tonight...late night's he is loaded.

[My Favorite Headache]

I take that bet back!