Hurricane Isabel - Confirmed Category 5 by Aircraft

NWS ^

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 27 Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 12, 2003 ...Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunters confirm that Isabel is a category five hurricane... at 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 58.6 west or about 350 miles...565 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Report from Air Force reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunters is 920 mb...27.17 inches. Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are likely over portions of the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico over the next several days. Repeating the 5 PM AST position...21.8 N... 58.6 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST. Forecaster Beven

[Phantom Lord]

Cary = Contained Away from Redneck Yokels!

[VMI70]

I have a place in Wrightsville. Looks like I'll be heading there next week.

[lainie]

I was around the same age, living in Richmond at the time. I grew up with the impression that all hurricanes were that deadly & awful. I thought all hurricanes knocked out power and water services for more than two weeks. My family went on about it for my entire childhood.

[Rain-maker]

[nwctwx]

very pretty picture, thanks

[general_re]

The problem is that it's still 7-10 days out yet, and that's too far for anything other than the most general forecasts. If it's 5 days out, and they say it'll hit the coast in your neck of the woods, it's wise to pack a bag and have it handy. If it's three days out, and they say it'll hit the coast in your neck of the woods, it's wise to take your bag and hit the road...

[oceanview]

where does this model come from?

[RightWhale]

It's still aimed for a point midway between Havana and Miami. Should be interesting. I guess it will turn early and miss the mainland for the most part.

[oceanview]

i think the idea of a strike on florida is almost out of the question now. anything is possible of course, but I think the spin from the meteorologists is pretty clear going into tonight.

[aristeides]

So the most recent models are GFDL and GFS? Encouragingly, those are the two models that could have the storm tracking out to sea and missing the continent altogether.

[uglybiker]

Just wonderin' if you're gonna have a hurricane party. ;-)

[Ditter]

Yes Galveston storm of 1900 is the worst natural disaster to strike the US. 6,000 to 10,000 deaths most of them within the short period of time when the storm surge came ashore. There was a program on the History Channel (I think, correct me if I am wrong). My grandfather survived that storm & we all grew up on his storm stories. The book, Issacks Storm was very factual & was like listening to my grandfather again.

[winodog]

Bump for new lurker Pam

[general_re]

There is a wonderful anecdote about the Galveston hurricane that I heard once - probably apocryphal, but what the hey. Anyway, it seems that one of the local residents had ordered a shiny new barometer from the Sears catalog, which had finally arrived in early September 1900. But upon taking it out of the box, he discovered that it was firmly stuck on the lowest level, no matter how he poked or prodded the thing. So he wrote a nasty letter to Sears about the piece of junk they had sent him, and marched off to the post office to send it back.

By the time he was able to make it back home, his house was gone ;)

[RightWinger]

...FINALLY blow away the OLD Cooper River bridge...

It will be gone soon anyway, the new bridge is being built over it as we speak.

New Cooper River Bridge

[kayak]

If it's three days out, and they say it'll hit the coast in your neck of the woods, it's wise to take your bag and hit the road...

Actually, it's best not to evacuate unless the authorities say you need to .... and that will involve primarily coastal areas only.

My elderly m-i-l was in Wilmington as Floyd approached so we were watching the storm closely. She doesn't live on the beach but, as the crow flies, it's probably only 3 miles or so. Nevertheless, we felt that she was ok to stay in Wilmington. A sister-in-law lives less than a mile from her and the family pow-wow-ed and decided that Mom would stay with s-i-l.

When Floyd strengthened so dramatically at the last moment and seemed to be taking a bead on Wilmington, the family all got on the phones and changed our decision. A nephew who lived in the Chapel Hill area went to get Mom and take her there and I drove down there to bring her to our home in Gastonia.

The total trip ended up taking over 12 hours ..... normally we can do it in about 5 1/2 going that route.

As I headed east on I-85/I-40, I had no problems ..... but as far west as Greensboro, the interstate was a parking lot with cars headed inland. People were going as far west as Knoxville, TN to avoid the storm. It created a very dangerous situation ..... if thousands and thousands of cars had been stranded on the highway during the full brunt of the storm, the effects would have been a tragedy of monstrous proportions.

The same sort of thing happened in SC but it was even worse. We heard tales of it taking people nearly 24 hours to get from Charleston to Charlotte! Cars were running out of gas as they sat idling on the highway. Those fleeing from the storm had no way to get food or water if they hadn't carried any in their car. They were having to answer nature's call in the woods along the roadway.

The vast majority of those people did not need to leave their homes. Ironically, many in eastern NC who fled wold have been ok had they stayed home ..... but because of the widespread flooding, they couldn't get back home for days. It was 5 days before I could take my m-i-l back home because all the roads to Wilmington were closed. Mom's house weathered the storm just fine ..... but the s-i-l with whom she was going to stay was flooded out. By the time we got to Gastonia that night, we had a phone message that s-i-l had had to leave her home as 3 feet of water had come pouring in. They were lucky .... they got back in the house right after Christmas ..... many people a little farther north in the state had to demolish their homes because the damage was so great.

The vast majority of those people took it upon themselves to leave the area. Emergency officials only issued mandatory evacuation orders for the immediate coast ..... the beaches and sounds. Floyd seemed to have the strength of Andrew and the size of Hugo and people fled by the thousands .... into a potentially much more dangerous scenario.

x42 contributed to the panic by declaring areas along the east coast disaster areas long before Floyd even made his mind up where he was going to make landfall. That spooked people even more than usual.

Unless you have unusual circumstances (health concerns ... live in a low-lying though inland area prone to flooding ... some other such such special consideration) listen to your local emergency officials. They know what areas are most at risk ..... they've been there, done that before.

[general_re]

Mostly I meant that if you were right on the coast where a storm surge would be a real risk for you, you should consider going whether the authorities say so or not. But generally speaking, for everyone else, it's wise to wait and see, as you say.

[Ditter]

I have heard that the Galveston Library has interviews with storm survivors in their archives. That story may have come from there. If you have not read Issacks Storm I can recommend it as an interesting book.

[Lion in Winter]

Yeah! September, 1993!! HUGO!! What a storm!! Knocked the daylights out of a swathe of S.C and N.C. Then, it sailed right on up to the Appalachian mountains!!

My sister had a house in Winston-Salem back then.... A MASSIVE one hundred year old oak tree fell, in the 90 mile per hour winds and took the deck and side of her house right off.

What a mess!!

[My Favorite Headache]

How Are Ya' Doin My Friend?

LOL...Dave Schwartz does the overnights on TWC. Priceless weather comedy.