Posted on 08/30/2003 4:21:33 PM PDT by Republican Red
Georgia's U.S. Senate campaign, which shifts into high gear starting this week, will play a pivotal role in Republicans' attempt to expand their majority in the nation's most powerful legislative chamber.
The GOP thinks it can pick up seats in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and possibly Florida, increasing its one-vote advantage in the Senate and helping to advance President Bush's agenda.
Democrats concede they face tough battles in the Republican-trending South -- especially Georgia -- but dismiss the idea they will lose four seats to the GOP.
"We feel we'll be on equal footing in all of these races," said Brad Woodhouse, Washington-based spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "We believe they will be toss-ups."
The political season traditionally heats up after Labor Day as candidates begin a 15-month countdown to the 2004 general election.
Georgia's race will come into clearer focus by the end of September, when former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young is expected to make a decision on whether to join the race.
If Young does jump in, as some observers are expecting, he could energize Democrats in a state where they suffered historic losses in 2002. Republicans staged upset wins in the governor's race and the Senate campaign, in which U.S. Sen. Max Cleland (D-Ga.) lost to then-U.S. Rep. Saxby Chambliss.
A few months later, Democratic U.S. Sen. Zell Miller announced he was retiring, putting the state's other Senate seat in play. U.S. Rep. Johnny Isakson, a Cobb County Republican, quickly announced his candidacy, and the race was on.
U.S. Rep. Mac Collins of Jackson, former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain and businessman Al Bartell have since lined up to seek the GOP nomination. But for the Democrats, only state Sen. Mary Squires (D-Norcross) has stepped forward, and even her own party's leaders question her ability to raise the millions needed to run a competitive statewide campaign.
Only recently has Young -- a former U.N. ambassador and U.S. congressman absent from politics for 13 years -- expressed interest in the race. And that came only after the 71-year-old civil rights veteran was approached by members of Atlanta's business community.
"Georgia is a very interesting case," said Woodhouse. "The Republicans have a lot of candidates, but that also means they'll have a bloody primary."
Many Republicans say a tortured GOP primary isn't altogether certain. Isakson has already raised about $3 million for the contest, dwarfing the $400,000 that Collins claims. Cain, who is capable of self-financing his run if he chooses, has raised more than $100,000.
Another round of campaign finance disclosures in mid-September will give an indication of where the GOP race stands.
Meanwhile, a recent state Democratic fund-raising letter listed the contest as third on the party's list of priorities, behind regaining control of the state Senate and maintaining control of the state House of Representatives.
But Woodhouse predicted Young's candidacy, if it materializes, would focus national Democratic attention on the race.
Republicans like the fact the 2004 Senate race coincides with a presidential election headed by an incumbent Republican.
"Georgia provides us with an excellent opportunity," said Dan Allen, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "It performs well in presidential [election] years, and when you have a closely divided Senate, every opportunity is important."
But Woodhouse, the Democratic spokesman, noted that the president's poll numbers have slipped somewhat in recent weeks.
"I don't think Bush will be a shoo-in, and he will not have the coattails to help anyone else," Woodhouse said. "A lot of people feel they have been abandoned by Bush. And you have a lot of Republicans running as Bush clones."
Bush made five trips to Georgia on Chambliss' behalf last year.
The Democrats' biggest problem may come down to simple math. Nineteen of the party's Senate seats are up this election cycle, compared with only 15 for the GOP. And 10 of the Democratic seats are in states that Bush carried in 2000.
In two Southern states, Democratic U.S. senators are vying for their party's presidential nomination -- putting those jobs up for grabs. U.S. Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina and Bob Graham of Florida have put their re-election bids on hold to stump in Iowa and New Hampshire.
And in South Carolina, U.S. Sen. Ernest F. "Fritz" Hollings is retiring, giving Republicans a shot at that seat in a state where the GOP already controls the governor's office and state Legislature.- Staff writer Jim Galloway contributed to this article.
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