Polls Apart: Schwarzenegger isn't as far behind as he seems

Opinion Journal ^ | 08/26/03 | John Fund

[Pokey78]

In a campaign as short as California's recall election, small events can have larger affects on the race. That seems to be happening with Los Angeles Times poll released on Sunday, which shows Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante with a 35% to 22% lead over Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. The internal polls of both candidates have the race much closer, but those haven't been publicly released.

[My2Cents]

Isn't it the PPIO poll, out today, which puts Arnold ahead of Cruz again? What I've noticed in the polls is that in most of them, the results are Arnold with about a 5% lead on Busty, Busty around 20%, and then McClintock still below 10%. There have been two polls -- the first Field, and then this LA Times poll -- that have been outside the pattern of all other polls. Even the Field Poll has corrected. The LA Times poll is now the only outlyer.

[tallhappy]

If it comes down to Cruz vs. Arnold, Arnold wins in a walk.

Don't be so sure.

This is the mistake the CA republicans have made over and over now for almost a decade -- assuming victories that never materialize.

[My2Cents]

It would serve the recall champions right to end up with Cruz Bustamante as governor at the end of this process for potentially the next 7 years.

[thoughtomator]

California's crisis is fiscal, so it's only appropriate to emphasize fiscal issues. On that matter McClintock has a demonstrably better understanding of how the problem came to be and how to fix it. With regards to cultural/moral issues, I'd be surprised if you had any difficulty determining his stance on any of the major issues in those categories.

[My2Cents]

I agree about McC's stance on the fiscal issues...There isn't anyone who understands the mess we're in than Tom McClintock. But I don't think he has the inherent leadership skills and qualities necessary to be Governor. This is why I've consistently said that Tom McClintock would make a great Director of Finance in anyone else's administration.

[Homer_J_Simpson]

The key paragraph, I think:

I'd go further down the article for the key paragraph:

With absentee ballots starting to go out as early as Sept. 8, Mr. McClintock will soon have a tough choice to make: Continue to wait for Mr. Schwarzenegger's candidacy to implode and stay in the race or demand assurances from him that he will govern as a conservative. Mr. McClintock could then leave the race as a hero.

I believe McC should stay in the race another month and see what happens in the polls. This will force Arnold to stay at least a little conservative on some issues. I think republican voters will be ready to jump to the top guy from their party at the last minute, who could conceiveably be McClintock.

[crasher]

What do you know about Eubereth? If he exited the race, where would most of his supporters go?

[crasher]

What do you know about Eubereth? If he exited the race, where would most of his supporters go?