Posted on 07/30/2003 2:03:53 PM PDT by leadpencil1
The anger felt by American workers about high-tech jobs going to India will fade away in a couple of years. Thats the prediction from research company Gartner. The reason that the company believes the anger will ebb is that by then the global economy will have improved and unemployment levels will have decreased. Offshore outsourcing is now a mega-trend that will cause up to 10 percent of IT professionals in the US to lose their jobs by 2004. Despite bills passed in the US houses of government aimed at slowing or even stopping offshore outsourcing, none have been passed into law yet as American authorities tend not to interfere with the right of businesses to operate in the most competitive manner possible.
Is Alqaida outsourcing now, too? Well, tell them that while the bomb doesn't work, it is hard to beat the price.
Ping to Exhibit Number One.
The dothead who's not a hothead! The host with the most! The one, the only, COOL GUY!
Obviously written by someone who's never lost a job. I myself am still pissed off over a layoff that happened 15 years ago.
Other Gartner predictions include:
1. Monkeys will soon learn to speak.
2. Peace will break out in the Middle East.
3. The next version of windows will have far fewer bugs.
Serious question: how do you effectively enforce it?
I'm not kidding. That guy visiting on a tourist visa with a CD player and a stack of CDs? He's just the courier, laundering the code by dropping it off at the "100% American programming" shop for final delivery to the customer.
Maybe he just sends it preloaded into one of those keychain fob USB RAM sticks.
Total time for me to conceptualize those two ways past the customs check: about sixty seconds.
When I say far far worse, honestly, I have no idea what "worse" might mean, except that the bubble and the irresponsibility are grander, a few numbers up the Richter scale.
We have some protections, I think -- during the fall. We'll see, there's naught else to do now but wait for the storm to be on top of us, hold on and then, as possible, get out and clean up.
What's your embedded background like?
I'm not kidding. That guy visiting on a tourist visa with a CD player and a stack of CDs? He's just the courier, laundering the code by dropping it off at the "100% American programming" shop for final delivery to the customer.
Maybe he just sends it preloaded into one of those keychain fob USB RAM sticks.
Total time for me to conceptualize those two ways past the customs check: about sixty seconds.
No, it's a good question. You enforce it the same way you enforce tax laws, which business could also flout, if they elected to try. Tariffs are, after all, nothing more than a tax: Money must be wired offshore, and that leaves big red glowing money trails.
Besides, never underestimate the Disgruntled Ex-Employee. More tax-fraud and software piracy has been exposed by that vector than any other.
More of them do than you would believe.
Tariffs are, after all, nothing more than a tax: Money must be wired offshore, and that leaves big red glowing money trails.
A smart and ruthless operator will get past that issue in about ten seconds.
Besides, never underestimate the Disgruntled Ex-Employee. More tax-fraud and software piracy has been exposed by that vector than any other.
Never underestimate how ruthless someone can be when he deliberately starts a criminal enterprise, as the "100% 'Murrican" code shop would be. That tends to discourage people from getting disgruntled...as it may soon be followed by being deceased.
this is not a problem for guvernmint.
Probably penned by a new Gartner hire who is feeling great about his or her new job. Problem is, turnover at Gartner is very high as well, so chances are they will soon be leaving Gartner. Boo hoo for them.
Offshore Outsourcing Bodes Poorly for Some Careers Part One
Diane Morello
V.P. and Research Director
Outsourcing deals lead to career opportunities for some employees, as Gartner analyst Lorrie Scardino pointed out earlier this week. But when it comes to offshore outsourcing, the opposite may be true. The movement of IT-related work from the United States, Western Europe, Australia and other developed countries to vendors and sites in emerging markets is an irreversible megatrend, and the workforce changes that accompany the movement are not fleeting or temporal.
Large vendors and service providers are aggressively pursuing offshore markets for IT delivery. If we consider changes in the United States to be harbingers of changes in other developed economies, then the technical workforce in developed economies is in tough shape. At the risk of being conservative, here's what we see unfolding in the United States alone in the next two years:
By year-end 2004, one out of every 10 jobs within U.S.-based IT vendors and service providers will move to emerging markets, as will one out of every 20 IT jobs within user enterprises (0.8 probability).
Although many CIOs and business leaders claim that offshore outsourcing permits them to reassign people to higher-value work, we've seen few instances of that. In general, the offshore movement of IT-related work displaces jobs. [Emphasis added]
Through 2005, fewer than 40 percent of people whose jobs are moved to emerging markets will be redeployed by their current employers (0.8 probability).
Without an investment boom, "white knight" industries, new IT-led innovation or new ways of competing globally, the scenario for the technical workforce in developed nations looks bleak. For example, if we apply the assumptions above to the IT Association of America's 2003 count of 10.3 million IT practitioners in the U.S., preliminary analysis indicates that another 500,000 IT jobs plausibly may disappear from the U.S. by year-end 2004. Developed countries take heed. Structural workforce changes are headed your way.
Or they'll just set the building on fire.
More of them do than you would believe.
Well, the only thing you do with those businesses is what we presently do: Investigate them with the FBI and put the decision makers in prison. Flouting tax laws is not a healthy way to run a business.
Nor should our decision to invoke tariffs be in any way influenced by the minority of businesses who choose to be scofflaws. That would be like revoking fraud law because a minority of individuals commit fraud.
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