The Law of Accelerating Returns

KurzweilAI.net ^ | March 7, 2001 | Ray Kurzweil

[AZLiberty]

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

[AZLiberty]

This is old, but I searched for it. If a technogeek like me hasn't seen this article before, then many others probably haven't. Within this article are many interesting conclusions. For example, economic growth is happening far faster than the numbers indicate (because the numbers don't properly capture increases in quality and capability). Economic potential is far higher than the government's permitted growth rate of 3.5%. The Social Security problem will dissolve in the face of unanticipated economic growth. And some red meat for you Depression junkies -- the stock market is WAY undervalued.

[AngrySpud]

"The stock market is WAY undervalued."

Compared to what it's value may-be in 2050 ... maybe.

[bcoffey]

I'm not convinced we can extrapolate exponential growth the way the article says. 500 years of history seems to make the cyclic pattern more probable. See The Fourth Turning for an example.

[Wonder Warthog]

Great article--too much food for thought to digest at one take.

[eno_]

I think the missing piece is where exponentially more energy is going to come from. We can't exploit the oceans or lift a significant quantity of stuff into space without a LOT more energy. We need something like a steam revolution - something that makes our current machinery look like donkey carts.

[fourdeuce82d]

If a technogeek like me hasn't seen this article before, then many others probably haven't didn't read the article, but you might want to google vernor vinge + singularity, book title "the spike" book title "marooned in real time" a compilation whose title I forget, but includes the words "hard SF 90s", check out "Engines of Creation" by Drexler (it's online) author BIll Joy "the future doesn't need us"... Also anything by Ken Macleod

This is a HUGE trope in speculative fiction. lot's of stuff out there. I suspect we have been born about 20-30 years to soon (I'm 41)to see the really neat stuff...but it's coming.

[Cicero]

Maybe yes, maybe no. For instance, continued technological growth assumes a healthy economy that can support a lot of scientists and technicians. You can't afford to support lots of original thinkers without lots of money and leisure.

The history of scientific progress tends to move in spurts. Also, golden ages are usually followed by decay. It's just as conceivable that, if the world economy goes into the tank and terrorism grows more common, technological development could grind to a halt.

[Cicero]

I would certainly recommend Vernor Vinge's two large SF novels, A Fire Upon the Deep and A Deepness in the Sky. But another lesson Vinge teaches is that nothing lasts forever.

[Consort]

A singularity thread from yesterday.

[gonzo]

Theng-cue, Consort...............FRegards

[FreeLibertarian]

Bump 4 later

[Colorado Doug]

Me too. Bump for later

[Physicist]

This results in a second level of exponential growth (i.e., the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially).

If the rate of change of the rate of change weren't an exponential, then the rate of change wouldn't be an exponential. It's an unavoidable characteristic of any exponential that its derivatives are exponential to all orders.

[Physicist]

Ping.

[RadioAstronomer]

Thanks for the ping! Am reading this tonight. :-)

[carl in alaska]

Bump for later read; gotta work on my taxes (already w/ extended due date.)