Posted on 06/30/2003 5:26:13 AM PDT by Phlap
ov. George E. Pataki and the Republican machinery he controls are determined to rally a huge voter turnout for President Bush next year, in a bid meant to bring New York Republicans the sort of national stature that has eluded them since the days of Nelson A. Rockefeller.
But in an intriguing subplot, Mr. Pataki and his advisers appear to have all but abandoned plans to seriously challenge Senator Charles E. Schumer, a popular Democrat, mindful that it would mobilize the opposition and thus undermine Mr. Bush's prospects in New York.
Publicly, Republicans are still talking about waging a tough fight against Mr. Schumer in 2004. But privately, people in Mr. Pataki's inner circle say the party has begun shifting its priorities, determined to make Mr. Bush's campaign competitive in New York, even if that means writing off the Senate race.
"Schumer is going to get a pass," said one high-ranking Pataki official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "I'm not saying the party won't find a candidate to run against Schumer. But they're really not serious."
A senior Pataki adviser said, "For New York to be competitive in the presidential contest, it's important not to rile up the core Democratic base, effectively giving Schumer a pass on a race we probably can't win anyway."
These and other Republicans say the sudden shift in the party's priorities reflects the surprising level of support that Mr. Bush has picked up in New York, a heavily Democratic state that no Republican presidential candidate has won since Ronald Reagan swept it in 1984.
A poll recently released by Marist College, for example, showed that 58 percent of voters who were surveyed in New York rated Mr. Bush's job performance as good or excellent.
But as much as anything else, the strategy also underscores another hard political reality that New York Republicans have been forced to reckon with: the early electoral strength of Mr. Schumer, who has already amassed nearly $15 million in his war chest and whose job-approval rating is at an impressive 58 percent in recent polls.
At the same time, Republican Party officials in New York have had a difficult time recruiting strong candidates to run against the senator.
Not only has Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York and a titan of the state party, apparently decided not to enter the 2004 Senate race. But also, Republican officials say that one other rising star in the party — Randy A. Daniels, the secretary of state in the Pataki administration — has rebuffed repeated invitations from the party to try unseating Mr. Schumer.
Mr. Daniels declined to comment last week. But people close to him said his decision to stay out of the race stemmed partly from his belief that the party had no interest in spending the money and campaign resources it would take to beat Mr. Schumer. Mr. Daniels has also made it clear that he would prefer to run for governor in 2006, according to leading party officials.
"I think it's safe to say that we've thrown in the towel on the Schumer race," said one senior Republican strategist with close ties to the New York party leadership.
The Schumer camp, for its part, is playing down any suggestion that Republicans plan to mount only a nominal challenge, perhaps out of concern that that would lead to complacency among his own supporters.
At the same time, Democrats close to Mr. Schumer are arguing — it is difficult to tell how seriously — that a wealthy candidate may emerge from the shadows at any point and use his or her own money to bankroll a campaign against the senator.
Indeed, Georgette Mosbacher, a prominent Republican fund-raiser and the former wife of Robert Mosbacher, the secretary of commerce under George H. W. Bush, has approached state party officials expressing an interest in running against Mr. Schumer, according to a high-ranking state Republican official. A guest who answered the phone at Ms. Mosbacher's home yesterday said that she was not at home and could not be reached for comment.
Phil Singer, a spokesman for Mr. Schumer, would not comment on the matter beyond saying: "Chuck is doing what he always does, working hard for the people of New York. Chuck always says, `Work hard and everything works out all right.' "
As for helping Mr. Bush win New York in 2004, state Republicans acknowledge that the odds are against them in a state where registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans. But if nothing else, these Republicans say, the party wants to begin an all-out drive to make Mr. Bush appear competitive in the state.
That alone would be a major victory for New York Republicans, potentially unnerving national Democrats and forcing them to spend money and time in a state that Democratic presidential candidates usually win with ease.
"The test of the Republican Party in New York is how well we are able to organize ourselves and make New York competitive in the presidential race next year," said State Senator Nicholas A. Spano, an influential Republican from Westchester County.
One major factor working in the state party's favor is that President Bush's advisers have put together a re-election strategy built around holding the national party's nominating convention in New York City, just in time for the third anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.
"If the convention goes well, it could give Bush a big bump in New York," one Republican official said.
Republicans say the best way to bolster Mr. Bush's prospects in New York is to rally support in the heavily Republican precincts of upstate New York and in the suburbs of New York City, while trying not to rile the city's predominantly Democratic voters.
Republican leaders in New York are in no way discounting the likelihood that no matter what they do, Democrats will turn out in large numbers in 2004 because it is, after all, a presidential election year.
But the strategic thrust of the Republican effort boils down to this: Why pick a fight with Mr. Schumer, a tough and well-financed political brawler? Republicans are concerned that Mr. Schumer could, in turn, rally his supporters, particularly labor unions and minority voters, with an aggressive campaign of his own.
"What you don't want to do is stir up their base," said the Pataki adviser, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The high-ranking Pataki official acknowledged that the strategy did have a drawback. "You would think this would give Democrats less reason to ramp up," the official said. "But the theory may not hold, because turnout automatically goes up in a presidential election year."
He might win it anyway, but the senate race has nothing to do with it.
Not that I trust the source at all, but if true that would be one incredibly foolish strategy.
I hope Georgette Mosbacher runs. She is filthy rich from her divorce settlement from a Texas oilman.
Oh yeah, and The Yankees Suck. :)
2) Schumer has far greater Jewish support than she does, and that matters a lot in this state. Going to back to Point #1, she's more vulnerable on that.
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