12 Under-Rated (But Critical) International Trends

The Atlantic ^ | July 2003 | various

[katman]

The winds of change are not always obvious. Analysts at the RAND Corporation lay out 10 international-security developments that aren't getting the attention they deserve in this month's issue of The Atlantic magazine:

1. The West Bank Wall
2. A Shrinking Russia
3. The Hindu-Muslim Divide
4. AIDS and African Armies
5. The Tehran-New Delhi Axis
6. Anti-Satellite Attack
7. Defense-Industry Goliaths
8. The Aircraft Carrier Shortage
9. The Indus Water Fight
10. Urban Warfare

...to which we add:
11. China's Race Into the Oil Market; and
12. Europe's looming pension crisis

That's an even dozen via our blog post. Winds of Change.NET is about quickly and conveniently briefing you on key events around our world. That's important. So is looking ahead and understanding the trends that will help write future headlines. Settle in and enjoy some interesting reads.

[RippleFire]

Interesting - I don't know that I agree that all are of equal importance though.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for posting this!

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[narby]

8. The Aircraft Carrier Shortage

Well, there's an aircraft carrier for sale on e-bay. (a couple of weeks ago, no joke)

[RussianConservative]

2. A Shrinking Russia

How so? Pure fantasy. Russian economy up 4th year in row at 7% this year so far. Births up 18% over last 4 years. Abortion down 22%. Where this myth from? Wishful thinking by western socialists in media and government? Well, Russia free and captialist, in decade western immigrants will flock for new "promised" land.

[ericthecurdog]

Does that mean no more Russian mail order brides?

[Constitutionalist Conservative]

How so? Pure fantasy. Russian economy up 4th year in row at 7% this year so far. Births up 18% over last 4 years. Abortion down 22%. Where this myth from? Wishful thinking by western socialists in media and government? Well, Russia free and captialist, in decade western immigrants will flock for new "promised" land.

Hello, RC. It is true that the Russian birthrate is up, but it is still far below replacement level. The overall population is shrinking, and many demographers predict that it will continue to shrink in the near future.

This isn't just a Russian trend. It's also occurring in many other Western countries (especially in non-Muslim Europe).

[balrog666]

(especially in non-Muslim Europe).

Isn't that everybody but Bosnia and France?

[varon]

4. AIDS and African Armies

"......international-security developments...."
I'm straining my imagination but fail to grasp first, the significance of any African army (thugs) in international security and second, the significance of these insignificant armed thugs being infected with AIDS.

[Lee'sGhost]

I was thinking that maybe it means they'll be less internal conflict because there won't be any able-bodied men,

OR

More external conflict because on weaker armies for defense.

OR

Both

But that's the problem with this post, no detail.

[Stultis]

Posted the full article here:

Headlines Over the Horizon (RAND Corp, 10 under appreciated international-security developments)
The Atlantic Monthly ^ | July/August 2003 | Eugene C. Gritton & Philip S. Antón

[RussianConservative]

Time getting short best hurry. :0) Or marry and come to Russia...much opportunity for self starters.

[RussianConservative]

True, up from 1.2 to 1.7 child per woman. But if trend continue, over next 5 years, will be over 2.1 for replacement and census show that population drop not 5 million but 2.5 million with maybe 3-5 million illegals living.

[Cacique]

ping

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

maybe 3-5 million illegals living

We are ahead of you, just in California!

[Herodotus]

The AIDS-decimated ranks of many African armies is (or has already) led to a decline in manpower available for international peacekeeping across the continent. Further increases in AIDS infection rates will lead to declines in military budgets to augment strained domestic medical budgets. The decline (or collapse) of state-controlled militaries might well lead to further deterioration of central control of multi-ethnic states.

The result? Westerners and Asians will have to go in to carry out peacekeeping duties that have traditionally been taken up by the Africans themselves, at a time when the decline in organized military control might well lead to a rise in internal disorder (a la Liberia) in some parts of Africa. We can turn our back on it, but that's what we did with Afghanistan....

To put it most simply, it's not so much that AIDS infected armies will themselves be a threat to international security. Rather, its that the longterm danger of AIDS will weaken the security of the region by making the existing armies less effective in what they can do.

[RightWhale]

11. China's Race Into the Oil Market;

Believe it or not, our security forces are in the ME to protect future oil development for Asia, including China. This is far preferable to forcing China to move to protect their future oil supply themselves.

[Stultis]

Ooops. Cut 'n paste failed me due to local page reference. Corrected link to the full article:

Headlines Over the Horizon (RAND Corp, 10 under appreciated international-security developments)
The Atlantic Monthly ^ | July/August 2003 | Eugene C. Gritton & Philip S. Antón