Novak: California's runaway recall

Townhall.com ^ | 6-9-03 | Robert Novak

[cgk]

California's runaway recall
Robert Novak (archive)

June 9, 2003 | Print | Send

LOS ANGELES -- The movement to replace just re-elected Democrat Gray Davis as governor of California is beginning to look like a runaway train with nobody at the controls. The state's voters may go to the polls this fall to decide whether Gov. Davis shall be removed, would then probably vote him out and, on the same ballot, select his successor. Nobody can predict that successor, or even whether the winner would be a Republican or Democrat.

While bipartisan establishment politicians remain in denial, realists now are taking the recall movement seriously. Dave Galliard, a Sacramento-based political consultant seeking signatures for recall petitions, says 520,000 voters have signed. He is aiming for 1.2 million, providing insurance that the required 897,000 valid names are collected. If this is done by July 18, an election must be held in September or October. Gov. Davis, at 21 percent approval in a recent private labor union poll, cannot be expected to survive.

That is not what President Bush's strategists want to hear. They fear the recall could elect a popular Democrat to replace the weakened Davis, making it more difficult for Bush to carry the state that would ensure his re-election. They cannot stop the train at this point, however. The recall movement has characteristics of anti-establishment resentment that in 1978 passed the famous Proposition 13 tax cut.

Seven months after winning a second term against neophyte Republican candidate Bill Simon, Davis has lost support from everybody except organized labor. His campaign team, headed by Garry South, is reassembling to fight the recall. But this is the same team that won in 2002 by savaging Simon without defending Davis, who never prepared voters for his tax increases to solve the state budget crisis.

Similarly, Republican leaders have changed their attitude since a recent visit to the state capital in Sacramento by the conservative congressman who triggered the recall movement: Rep. Darrell Issa, a multi-millionaire entrepreneur. Issa called Republican Leader Jim Brulte off the Senate floor to detail his plans to fund the movement -- $700,000 contributed by him so far with more coming. Since then, Brulte's hostility to a recall has changed to neutrality.

As the recall originator, Issa must be considered a leader in the winner-take-all non-party election on the same ballot as the Davis removal question. But he is not the only Republican hopeful. State Sen. Tom McClintock, an anti-tax advocate, is running to Issa's right. Simon, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Secretary of State Bill Jones have been privately testing support.

All may be dwarfed by a liberal Republican: former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. After losing to conservative Simon in the 2002 GOP primary, Riordan has asked for White House help in clearing out the rest of the Republicans. Since that is patently impossible, Riordan may run as an independent.

Gerald Parsky, the investment banker who is Bush's main political agent here, has not joined the recall movement. "I understand why people in California would be upset by the financial crisis," Parsky told me, "but my first priority is the re-election of the president and getting the financing necessary to accomplish this."

Other Republican critics of the recall see a nightmare scenario where Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the state's most popular politician, enters the race and easily wins -- replacing a 21 percent favorable Democrat with a 62 percent favorable. But Feinstein is on record against Davis's recall and can hardly urge voters to vote for her on the same ballot.

The same conflict afflicts other Democrats who are more likely to run than Feinstein: Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Atty. Gen. Bill Lockyer, State Treasurer Phil Angelides and maybe San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown. It least affects State Senate President John Burton, who detests Davis and is ready to run. (One of Burton's supporters, a well-known Democrat, told me he is tempted to sign a Davis recall petition.)

Fear by leading Republicans that any one of these Democrats probably will replace Davis reflects the GOP establishment's defeatism, resulting from the state party's 2002 wipeout. The prospects for a recall, however, have lifted spirits of California grassroots Republicans, who hope a low-turnout autumn election will defeat the Democrats. Whether or not that appraisal is realistic, it is becoming too late to stop the runaway recall.

©2003 Creators Syndicate, Inc.

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[SteveH]

The Republican Party in California is not so much outnumbered as it is politically Balkanized into RINOs, conservatives, little-L libertarians, and various shades in between.

The RNC apparently does not want to get near California, for to embrace California is to embrace the central question facing Republicans: whether or not to ride the conservative wave.

Therefore, flyover California suffers from Republican benign neglect.

And amateur after amateur runs for state office, treating California as their own little sandlot.

Pity the state, and pity the country.

[FairOpinion]

Good news, bad news.

Good news that the recall seems to be moving forward decisively, but bad news with too many Republican candidates, which will split the vote.

This is a hard one. I think Riordan has the best chance, because he ran before and has some name recognition, has been a great Mayor of LA and moderate enough, that Democrats can vote for him.

I hope Republicans won't make the same mistake as they did the last time,-- which is the reason we need to have this recally effort,-- by nominating Simon, a wonderful Republican, but clearly not one who could beat Davis in liberal California.

Riordan is orders of magnitudes better than any Democrat. He ran LA like a business, not like a bureaucrat/politician.

I wouldn't mind Issa, McClintock, any of them is fine with me, but strategically two things are needed: only one Republican candidate, and one who can draw Democrat votes, which takes us back to Riordan.

[goldstategop]

If the Democrats run Gray Davis I'm for Tom McClintock. Under no circumstances will I ever vote for the likes of Dickie Pooh. We need a conservative Republican in the statehouse to block the liberal radicals here if California is to survive. My message to Gerald Parsky and the RINOs here is lead, follow, or get the hell out of our way cause no matter what we'll see to see to it Davis is histoire.

[FairOpinion]

The Democrats can run others, they don't have to support Davis. It looks like a free-for-all.

As I said before, if Republicans can't bring themselves to vote for Riordan, we may get another Democrat, who is just as bad as Davis.

Our choice is not between a conservative Republican and a liberal one, but between a fiscally conservative, socially liberal Republican and a leftist Democrat.

[FairOpinion]

"The Republican Party in California is not so much outnumbered as it is politically Balkanized into RINOs, conservatives, little-L libertarians, and various shades in between. "

---

I am afraid you are right. If Republicans pulled together and get a candidate who is moderate enough to be electable, i.e. have at least some Democrats vote for him, we could win, and start turning the liberal tide.

But, as you say, the Republicans are fractured, so the Democrats keep winning.

[goldstategop]

I hope McClintock runs. If he does I think he'll win. No one likes Davis. Basically for Republicans this is the best chance we'll have of regaining the governorship in our lifetime. I think he is the best man for the job. I hope our party unites behind him.

[John Lenin]

I agree, Riordan was a great mayor in LA and probably could run away with the election.

[FairOpinion]

If we don't get a Republican Mayor, we would have been better off to leave Davis, because if we get a Democrat Mayor now, he will run again and most likely get reelected in 2008.

And in order to get a Republican Mayor, we need to have ONE Republican candidate, not a dozen, and one who could get Democratic votes as well, and win.

Who was the Republican candidate who ran against Davis, when he ran the first time? I can't think of his name, but he was a great Republican and I couldn't believe he lost to Davis, but he did.

[Pro-Bush]

Pete Wilson

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Lundgren I believe ran against Davis the first time!

calgov2002:

calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. 

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. 

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[Lancey Howard]

It's getting very serious BUMP.

[John Lenin]

It was Lungren and he was smeared because of an insurance scandal that happened under his watch.

[goldstategop]

What felled Lungren was his unbridled enthusiasm for gun control.

[Lancey Howard]

You mean governor, right?
I think when that scumbag liberal Democrat, Riordan, lost to Simon in the Republican primary, the RINO establishment, led by Parsky, took a walk. Simon was left to flounder on his own, and flounder he did. He needed better handlers than Ed Rollins, who I personally don't trust.
And lookie here! Now it looks like Riordan wants to position himself to be the next governor of California!
Good grief!
I would prefer Davis.

[Pro-Bush]

I stand corrected...Lungren was the challenger. Thanks for keeping me honest.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Tricky Dick Riordan is horrible, he makes Davis look like a Conservative. Both he and Ah-nold can buy themselves a one-way ticket to Pyongyang.

Tom McClintock for Governor !

[dalereed]

"have at least some Democrats vote for him, we could win, and start turning the liberal tide"

Moderate or conservative democrats won't vote for a "moderate" republican, they will only vote republican if the candidate is a conservative.

It wasn't the lack of crossover democrat votes that cost Simon the election, it was the Republicans that stayed home.

If Bush and his snake Rove hadn't forced Parsky down our necks all the State houses would be held by Republicans including Simon as Governor.

[Beck_isright]

Actually this is a great development also. It will suck more oxygen from the 9 dwarfs, take the Klintoon brigade off the front pages, and, barring a major foreign policy development, give W a chance to enact some of his domestic agenda. The Demorats will be freaking out all over this country if Davis is recalled. This will be a fun fall to watch this fiasco unfold. I do hope Riordan wins though, California can not afford another RINO or flake.

[snopercod]

No mention of Schwartzenegger?