Trying to defeat Bush on the economy

Union Tribune ^ | June 6, 2003 | Joseph Perkins

[Jimbaugh]

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/op-ed/perkins/20030606-9999_mz1e7perkins.html

Joseph Perkins
THE SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE

June 6, 2003

	Trying to defeat Bush on the economy
Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor, the Democratic presidential hopeful, has given away his party's dirty little secret: They are praying for an economic downturn between now and November 2004. They reckon it's the only circumstance under which they can deny President Bush a second term in the Oval Office, given his favorable standing with the American people. So they are attacking the Republican's economic policies. "If we re-elect this president," warned Dean, testing out a Democrat campaign theme, "we'll be in a depression." Unfortunately, the economy is not cooperating with Dean and his fellow Democrats. Just this week, in fact, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees indications of a "fairly marked turnaround" in the nation's economy. Indeed, over the last month, the bulls have returned to Wall Street. The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average is at its highest level in nearly six months. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index is at its highest level in nine months. And the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite index is at its highest level in nearly a year. Investors have returned to the stock market because they see harbingers of better economic times to come. Like the stronger than expected growth for May in the U.S. service sector, which makes up 80 percent of the nation's economy. It was the second straight month of expansion, according to the Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing activity. There also was the strong May reading on regional manufacturing. The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said its monthly index rose to 52.2. When the Chicago PMI tops 50, it signals expansion in the manufacturing sector. The nation's housing market continues to expand, as sales of new homes rose 1.7 percent in April to a 1.03 million-unit annual rate. That annualized rate is at least the third-highest level ever recorded, according to the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, the American people are increasingly optimistic about the economy. In fact, the University of Michigan's closely watched consumer confidence index rose in May to its highest level in nearly a year. Of course, not all the leading economic indicators are positive. Most troubling, perhaps, is that the four-week moving average for first-time unemployment claims has remained above the 400,000 mark – the level that signals sluggish growth in the labor market – for the past three and one-half months. Dean must be absolutely delighted by that news. Because he claims that President Bush has so mismanaged the economy during his watch that 2.5 million jobs have been lost. He also suggests that if the Republican is returned to the White House, the American people should expect the economy to shed a total of "eight million jobs in eight years." Yet, there are signs that the longest post-World War II labor-market slump has just about bottomed out. Layoff announcements by U.S. companies fell last month to their lowest level in two and one-half years, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the Chicago job placement firm. And the American job machine is almost certain to get a boost from the latest tax cuts signed into law by President Bush, and stridently opposed by Dean and most of his fellow Democrats. The latest round of cuts will put an extra $160 billion into the pockets of working Americans between now and the end of next year. When combined with the two previous tax cuts President Bush got from Congress – which have yet to take full effect – the U.S. economy is ripe for robust growth. The party of Dean is hoping that 2004 will be a repeat of 1992: That a Republican president named Bush sees his war-time popularity wane as the national economy wallows in recession. And that a Democrat rides the bad economy into the White House. That's why Dean and his fellow Democrats really oppose the Bush tax cuts. Not because they are so concerned that they will increase the deficit. Not because they are so outraged that the rich supposedly will benefit most. But because they fear that the tax cuts truly will produce the strong economic growth President Bush promises. Perkins can be reached via e-mail at joseph.perkins@uniontrib.com.

[Willie Green]

Trying to defeat Bush on the economy

Not difficult to do when Robert Zoellick is working full time to help Dubya shoot himself in the foot.

[Cicero]

"If we re-elect this president," warned Dean, testing out a Democrat campaign theme, "we'll be in a depression."

Translation: "Fellow Democrats, let's do everything we can to bring on a recession so we can dump Bush and return to power."

[anniegetyourgun]

I'm guessing Willie Green is contributing to their efforts.

[Willie Green]

And the American job machine is almost certain to get a boost from the latest tax cuts signed into law by President Bush,

Nope. Zoellick has those funds earmarked for investment in Chile.

Trade to flow freely between Chile and the US

[BIGZ]

The only way that the Demos will elect a president in 04 is for them to have a Ross Perot run and take 20% of the vote from Bush. The Sickmiester should never have been president in the first place.

[Billthedrill]

Any politician who waits on events such as an economic downturn is doomed to failure. This is the very meaning of the word "reactionary" and it doesn't work for anyone, much less for those posing as "progressive."

[Willie Green]

I'm guessing Willie Green is contributing to their efforts.

No. Juanterm and Robert Zoellick are cooperating with the 'Rats all on their own.

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[Steven W.]

you must be quite disappointed that the job numbers were down to 16K from the 30K you and you're brethren had promised and were so hoping for! it never pays to bet against the American economy!

[only1percent]

Bush has >got< to something on jobs/stimulus -- if not, we're whistling past the graveyard.

The tax cut is in the bag, and now he's got to show how the big money going back to the top 5% will be reinvested in the economy. I believe that it will, but Bush has got to show that he >cares< that it will and is trying to do something about it.

And he's got to put a sock in Delay's mouth -- in the recent discussion regarding the child tax credit, Delay's barely-concealed contempt for families making $25,000 a year is not at all the message we need to be sending. $25,000 a year is an income of a hard-working, respectable family in many of the less well-off parts of the country, where there are many working class "traditional values" Republican-voters who can and will vote Democrat if they don't feel attended to by Bush.

[cbass]

It may have made for poor politics, but I admired Tom Delay's courage to state that a child tax credit to people that don't pay taxes in the first place is akin to a welfare program. That was blunt honesty, and I hardly find it worth stuffing a sock into.

[Willie Green]

you must be quite disappointed that the job numbers were down to 16K from the 30K you and you're brethren had promised and were so hoping for! it never pays to bet against the American economy!

Doesn't it embarrass you at all to outright lie about the current economy?
Or do you take some kind of arrogantly twisted pride in lying like Klintoon did?

U.S. sheds 17,000 jobs in May; jobless rate up to 6.1%

[kevkrom]

The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said its monthly index rose to 52.2. When the Chicago PMI tops 50, it signals expansion in the manufacturing sector.

...

Yet, there are signs that the longest post-World War II labor-market slump has just about bottomed out. Layoff announcements by U.S. companies fell last month to their lowest level in two and one-half years, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the Chicago job placement firm.

One would think, given your constant concern for the loss of American jobs, especially in manufacturing, that you'd be pleased about this... yet for some odd reason, you don't seem to be. Why is that?

[GraniteStateConservative]

The GOP has supported the EITC before with the notion that it keeps people just off welfare from giving up and returning to welfare. When you consider payroll taxes (EITC doesn't cover 100% of payroll tax liability) and state sales taxes, these voters do have tax burdens. This tax cut is just an extension of this.

In fact, it's the most unexplainable thing in politics that poor states like the Dakotas and the South support Republicans ("the party of the rich" as we're called) for president while places like New York-- which sends more tax dollars away than they get back than any other state-- votes Democrat (as do other high income-- and high-income tax states).

Bush has used Keynesian arguments plenty of times for his tax cuts. The last time rebates were sent out in 2001, only 20% were actually spent on consumption because the low income people who would actually spend all of their checks, didn't get those rebate checks. If Bush believes Keynes' notion that consumption can give a short-term stimulus to the economy, then he should give money to lower income voters.

[Princeliberty]

Only 60 billion of the tax cuts are for this
year. The state and local government
will raise taxes this year at least that much.
So help this year.

[only1percent]

I think that an even exchange of state and local tax liability for federal tax liability is a win for conservatives!

Pushing power down to the local level lets us have tax and spending decisions that reflect our values, both through having more responsive politicians making the decision, and allowing employers and consumers to "vote with their feet" if local government is taxing too much or taxing too little and hitting diminishing returns in terms of quality of services.

[only1percent]

Consumer-spending stimulus is not what we need. In my view, it's really more the >tone< of Delay's comments than their substance which is truly objectionable.

The stimulus we need is business/industrial investment stimulus, the kind that creates jobs. We need more manufacturing, more high value services, more durable goods, more high value IT, more dark fiber lit. The accelerated depreciation schedules in the tax cut bill were a decent start.

[Princeliberty]

The federal government continues to create
more and more unfunded federal mandates
on the States.
And the exchange probably won't be even
the States and locals before it is over
will raise taxes more than this minor
tax cut lowered them.

In any case no way anyone can say there
are going to be a bunch of jobs created
by lowered taxes, because overall
the tax burden on the economy is not getting
lighter.

[GraniteStateConservative]

That is long-term stimulus, not short-term.

[FITZ]

And the American job machine is almost certain to get a boost from the latest tax cuts signed into law by President Bush,

I believe in every tax cut there can be ---but I'm not sure how tax cuts will help American jobs since everyone will buy products made in China with their tax refunds. I'd buy American products if I could find any to buy.