Reid downplays results of GOP survey

WASHINGTON -- A Republican poll shows Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., leading Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., 48 percent to 40 percent, in a potential matchup of the 2004 Senate race in Nevada.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee requested the poll, a telephone survey of 500 registered voters in Nevada, during the last three days of January, said Dan Allen, the committee's communications director.

The poll was conducted by Moore Information Inc., a public opinion research firm with offices in Portland, Ore., and Washington, D.C.

"The fact is this shows Gibbons is very strong and has a lot of upside considering he only represents one-third of the state and already is getting 40 percent of the vote," Allen said. "You can see Reid is in real trouble especially as a three-term incumbent who can't break 50 (percent)."

Reid, 63, dismissed the poll as a GOP tactic to persuade Gibbons to enter the race.

"The Republicans jigger the questions to come out like they want, just like the Democrats have done in the past," Reid said. "Jim Gibbons is a fine congressman and would be a worthy opponent. I can't say anything bad about him. But what this is all about is putting pressure on Gibbons to run against me."

Reid also said the Republican poll deliberately kept his rating below 50 percent. "They know I'm above 50 percent and about 12 to 15 points ahead," Reid said.

Gibbons, 58, was unavailable for comment Thursday. Gibbons' spokeswoman Amy Spanbauer said the congressman was preparing to address the Nevada Legislature.

"We are aware the NRSC has conducted some polling in Nevada and it is favorable to Congressman Gibbons, but we don't have specific information on the data," Spanbauer said.

Now in his fourth term in the House, Gibbons has said he plans to decide by the end of this summer whether he will challenge Reid next year.

Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington, D.C., political analyst, said the Republican committee's poll numbers "seem about right."

"Reid gets between 48 and 51 percent of the vote (in his elections) and the Republican base in the state is quite good," Rothenberg said. "What this suggests to me is that if Gibbons runs, it will be a very competitive race. The question is if Gibbons doesn't run -- I don't have six or eight candidates on my list of top tier challengers."

Allen declined to comment when asked if the poll pitted Reid against Republican candidates other than Gibbons.

Reid is likely to be among the top targets of Republicans in 2004, Rothenberg said.

I think it's impossible to say, because a lot of these races don't even have challengers yet. Will Guiliani run against Shumer? If so, I think we pick up that seat. If not, there's little chance.

Well, we do know about several races:

FL: Rep. Mark Foley & ex Rep. Bill McCollum, plus maybe Rep. Dave Weldon (hopefully Weldon will run, he's a pro-life doctor & veteran)

GA: Rep. Johnny Isakson, Rep. Mac Collins, and millionaire businessman Herman Cain (who is black) are running so far

SC: Rep. Jim DeMint, ex AG Charlie Condon, and others

NC: Rep. Richard Burr is running to popular acclaim. Wish we had a Richard Burr in every state!!!! He's plenty conservative and plenty electable.

WI: no one has announced yet, but ex Lt Gov Margaret Farrow and senate minority leader Bob Welch are probably running, among others

IL: investment banker turned high school teacher Jack Ryan is one of millions running

CA: US Treasurer Rosario Marin just resigned to run against Boxer

WA: Rep. George Nethercutt is probably running vs. Patty "Osama" Murray

IN: Professor Marvin Scott (who is black) is running, but that's a longshot race.

States still up in the air include New York (probably no Rudy), Arkansas (either Huckabee, Asa Hutchinson, or ex state rep. Gunner DeLay), Louisiana (will Breaux run again?), North Dakota (MAYBE ex Gov Ed Schafer), South Dakota (probably John Thune), and some races in which we have no chance (VT, OR, MD, CT).

And then, of course, Nevada, where Jim Gibbons is probably running.

I posted this last November but most of it still stands...

Now that the Republicans have a tenuous hold on the U.S. Senate, what are their chances for keeping it in 2004? First, you need to know who's seats are up for re-election. The Democrats will likely be holding 19 seats that will need defending. Republicans will be holding 15.

That's 34 of the 100 seats and, barring resignations, deaths or ousters from the party, those will likely be the stakes although one or two other races may crop up, which will be explained further below.

These are the seats presently in Democrat hands that will be up in the presidential election year of 2004. I have posted my very early line on the likelihood of retaining the seats in parentheses:

AR - Blanche Lincoln (55%)
CA - Barbara Boxer (60%)
CT - Christopher Dodd (75%)
FL - Bob Graham (55%)
GA - Zell Miller (60%)
HI - Daniel Inouye (80%)
IN - Evan Bayh (60%)
LA - John Breaux (70%)
MD - Barbara Mikulski (75%)
NC - John Edwards (55%)
ND - Byron Dorgan (60%)
NV - Harry Reid (55%)
NY - Charles Schumer (60%)
OR - Ron Widen (65%)
SC - Ernest Hollings (55%)
SD - Tom Daschle (60%)
VT - Patrick Leahy (70%)
WA - Patty Murray (65%)
WI - Russell Feingold (55%)

These are the seats presently held in Republican hands that will be up for re-election in 2004:

AK - (open) - will be appointed by new Gov. Frank Murkowski to replace the retiring Sen. Frank Murkowski (60%)
AL - Richard Shelby (70%)
AZ - John McCain (55%)
CO - Ben Campbell (60%)
IA - Charles Grassley (70%)
ID - Michael Craig (75%)
IL - Peter Fitzgerald (55%)
KS - Sam Brownback (75%)
KY - Jim Bunning (55%)
MO - Christopher Bond (60%)
NH - Judd Gregg (60%)
OH - George Voinovich (65%)
OK - Don Nickles (70%)
PA - Arlen Specter (65%)
UT - Robert Bennett (80%)

I've started with the premise that every incumbent has a better than 50-50 chance of winning but which seats might be the most vulnerable for a turnover?

ALASKA - Republicans are usually pretty safe up there but one can't discount the wild card factor of an appointed senator who turns out not to be up to the challenge.

ARIZONA - Who knows with McCain? He may be writing the perscription for his own defeat back home. Then again, he might be a Democrat by then.

ARKANSAS - Blanche Lincoln is a first-term senator in a state that's been very flaky the past few cycles, going Democrat in some races and Republican in others. With a Republican governor, a solid candidate may be found.

FLORIDA - Given Republican gains in 2002 and the president's brother in Tallahassee, this has to be a danger zone for Democrats even though Graham is generally well-liked.

GEORGIA - Given this week's bombshells, Zell Miller may find it easier to switch parties before 2004. Or he may decide it's time to retire which could open the door even wider for a Republican pick-up.

ILLINOIS - I'd rate this the most likely to change hands. As long as Carol Mosely-Braun isn't the opponent, it could be an easy ride for the Democrat challenger.

INDIANA - Generally a conservative hotbed but the Bayh name has endured well there. This might get interesting with a popular Republican president on the ballot.

KENTUCKY - Bunning got a huge break when his most likely Democrat challenger was caught in a Clintonesque sex scandal. But Bunning is still a hanging curveball if they can find the opponent to swat him out of the park.

NORTH CAROLINA - Although Edwards has presidential ambitions, this is a state no Democrat can take for granted, except perhaps Michael Jordan.

NEW YORK - If Pataki or Giuliani decides to run, Chuckie will have to scramble to keep his seat.

NEVADA - A state with a growing population with Republican leanings means Reid could face a serious threat.

PENNSYLVANIA - Can somebody explain how Arlen Specter keeps his job? As the state drifts more towards the Democrats, the GOP is waiting to see if there's another magic bullet in Arlen's future.

SOUTH CAROLINA - Is it time for Fritz Hollings to retire or for South Carolina to retire Fritz?

WISCONSIN - You'd think a Democrat would be fairly safe here but recent election trends makes this in play. Would be interesting to see if "Senator CFR" gets stung by his own law.

Ok, so those are the seats (nine Democrat, five Republican) that seem the most vulnerable. Now what about the wild cards?

John McCain and Zell Miller are both in the rumor mill as party-switchers. John Breaux was a rumored switcher after 2000 and still might leave that door open. Newly-elected Frank Lautenberg is at least a 50-50 bet to retire and open New Jersey back up to another election (meaning a 20th Democrat seat up for grabs). Besides, who's crystal ball is clear enough to forecast who else might cash in their chips and go home rather than run again?

And don't think Tom Daschle's seat is entirely safe either. He might be just another senator by the time George W. Bush cleans up his state in 2004.

Since then we've learned that Zell Miller and Peter Fitzgerald are retiring, Thune plans to take on Daschle, Spector has a serious primary challenger, Murkowski picked his own daughter to replace him in the Senate which might backfire, Graham and Edwards are running for president so that may hurt their chances of keeping their Senate seats, and Patty Murray has said some incredibly stupid things that make her more vulnerable if only for Washingtonians to keep the rest of the country from laughing at them.

I don't have time to recalculate the odds but I see a best-case scenario of four-to-six Senate seats gained by the GOP. Still not enough to overcome a filibuster but enough to solidify the majority and keep some of the RINOs from having as great an impact.

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