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I posted this last November but most of it still stands...

Now that the Republicans have a tenuous hold on the U.S. Senate, what are their chances for keeping it in 2004? First, you need to know who's seats are up for re-election. The Democrats will likely be holding 19 seats that will need defending. Republicans will be holding 15.

That's 34 of the 100 seats and, barring resignations, deaths or ousters from the party, those will likely be the stakes although one or two other races may crop up, which will be explained further below.

These are the seats presently in Democrat hands that will be up in the presidential election year of 2004. I have posted my very early line on the likelihood of retaining the seats in parentheses:

AR - Blanche Lincoln (55%)
CA - Barbara Boxer (60%)
CT - Christopher Dodd (75%)
FL - Bob Graham (55%)
GA - Zell Miller (60%)
HI - Daniel Inouye (80%)
IN - Evan Bayh (60%)
LA - John Breaux (70%)
MD - Barbara Mikulski (75%)
NC - John Edwards (55%)
ND - Byron Dorgan (60%)
NV - Harry Reid (55%)
NY - Charles Schumer (60%)
OR - Ron Widen (65%)
SC - Ernest Hollings (55%)
SD - Tom Daschle (60%)
VT - Patrick Leahy (70%)
WA - Patty Murray (65%)
WI - Russell Feingold (55%)

These are the seats presently held in Republican hands that will be up for re-election in 2004:

AK - (open) - will be appointed by new Gov. Frank Murkowski to replace the retiring Sen. Frank Murkowski (60%)
AL - Richard Shelby (70%)
AZ - John McCain (55%)
CO - Ben Campbell (60%)
IA - Charles Grassley (70%)
ID - Michael Craig (75%)
IL - Peter Fitzgerald (55%)
KS - Sam Brownback (75%)
KY - Jim Bunning (55%)
MO - Christopher Bond (60%)
NH - Judd Gregg (60%)
OH - George Voinovich (65%)
OK - Don Nickles (70%)
PA - Arlen Specter (65%)
UT - Robert Bennett (80%)

I've started with the premise that every incumbent has a better than 50-50 chance of winning but which seats might be the most vulnerable for a turnover?

ALASKA - Republicans are usually pretty safe up there but one can't discount the wild card factor of an appointed senator who turns out not to be up to the challenge.

ARIZONA - Who knows with McCain? He may be writing the perscription for his own defeat back home. Then again, he might be a Democrat by then.

ARKANSAS - Blanche Lincoln is a first-term senator in a state that's been very flaky the past few cycles, going Democrat in some races and Republican in others. With a Republican governor, a solid candidate may be found.

FLORIDA - Given Republican gains in 2002 and the president's brother in Tallahassee, this has to be a danger zone for Democrats even though Graham is generally well-liked.

GEORGIA - Given this week's bombshells, Zell Miller may find it easier to switch parties before 2004. Or he may decide it's time to retire which could open the door even wider for a Republican pick-up.

ILLINOIS - I'd rate this the most likely to change hands. As long as Carol Mosely-Braun isn't the opponent, it could be an easy ride for the Democrat challenger.

INDIANA - Generally a conservative hotbed but the Bayh name has endured well there. This might get interesting with a popular Republican president on the ballot.

KENTUCKY - Bunning got a huge break when his most likely Democrat challenger was caught in a Clintonesque sex scandal. But Bunning is still a hanging curveball if they can find the opponent to swat him out of the park.

NORTH CAROLINA - Although Edwards has presidential ambitions, this is a state no Democrat can take for granted, except perhaps Michael Jordan.

NEW YORK - If Pataki or Giuliani decides to run, Chuckie will have to scramble to keep his seat.

NEVADA - A state with a growing population with Republican leanings means Reid could face a serious threat.

PENNSYLVANIA - Can somebody explain how Arlen Specter keeps his job? As the state drifts more towards the Democrats, the GOP is waiting to see if there's another magic bullet in Arlen's future.

SOUTH CAROLINA - Is it time for Fritz Hollings to retire or for South Carolina to retire Fritz?

WISCONSIN - You'd think a Democrat would be fairly safe here but recent election trends makes this in play. Would be interesting to see if "Senator CFR" gets stung by his own law.

Ok, so those are the seats (nine Democrat, five Republican) that seem the most vulnerable. Now what about the wild cards?

John McCain and Zell Miller are both in the rumor mill as party-switchers. John Breaux was a rumored switcher after 2000 and still might leave that door open. Newly-elected Frank Lautenberg is at least a 50-50 bet to retire and open New Jersey back up to another election (meaning a 20th Democrat seat up for grabs). Besides, who's crystal ball is clear enough to forecast who else might cash in their chips and go home rather than run again?

And don't think Tom Daschle's seat is entirely safe either. He might be just another senator by the time George W. Bush cleans up his state in 2004.

Since then we've learned that Zell Miller and Peter Fitzgerald are retiring, Thune plans to take on Daschle, Spector has a serious primary challenger, Murkowski picked his own daughter to replace him in the Senate which might backfire, Graham and Edwards are running for president so that may hurt their chances of keeping their Senate seats, and Patty Murray has said some incredibly stupid things that make her more vulnerable if only for Washingtonians to keep the rest of the country from laughing at them.

I don't have time to recalculate the odds but I see a best-case scenario of four-to-six Senate seats gained by the GOP. Still not enough to overcome a filibuster but enough to solidify the majority and keep some of the RINOs from having as great an impact.