SARS DEATH RATE FOR OLDER PEOPLE MORE THAN 50%: WHO

Channel News Asia ^ | 08 May 2003

[11th_VA]

The World Health Organization has released new information about who SARS kills and how long it takes to develop, while US health officials say overall there is no evidence the virus is changing or becoming deadlier in any way.

The WHO said the death rate, previously estimated at between 6 percent and 10 percent, now ranged up to 50 percent depending on who fell ill.

"On the basis of more detailed and complete data, and more reliable methods, WHO now estimates that the case fatality ratio of SARS ranges from 0 percent to 50 percent depending on the age group affected, with an overall estimate of case fatality of 14 percent to 15 percent," WHO said on its website.

"Based on data received by WHO to date, the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1 percent in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6 percent in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15 percent in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50 percent in persons aged 65 years and older," it added.

"The likelihood that a person will die of SARS could be influenced by factors related to the SARS virus, the route of exposure and dose (amount) of virus, personal factors such as age or the presence of another disease, and access to prompt medical care," WHO added.

WHO said it still estimated the incubation period of SARS was 10 days, meaning it takes that long from the time a person is exposed to develop symptoms.

WHO's Dr David Heymann meanwhile told a US House of Representatives hearing in Washington that a major concern was what would happen if SARS hit people infected with the AIDS virus, which destroys immunity.

Dr Heymann and other health officials told the House hearing there was no evidence people transmit the virus before they develop the cough, fever and pneumonia that characterize SARS.

Dr Anthony Fauci, head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said there was also no evidence that some mutations seen in the virus made it any more deadly.

[11th_VA]

Looks like the Social Security fix is in ...

[mvonfr]

Well, this explains why the death rate is higher in developed countries: older population.

Vietnam with its low death rate has one of the young ones.

It should be possible to compute death rates for different countries now.

[11th_VA]

By Joe, I think you've got it ...

[Calpernia]

Ping.

[tubebender]

Can we beleive the WHO or are they trolling for more money ?

[blackdog]

I've been claiming that to be the solution to Social Security demographic issues for years. I thought they would roll it out in about 2012.

[DannyTN]

Tell me if I'm wrong here.... There have been 6903 cases of which 2885 have recovered and 495 have died, leaving 3523 active cases. New cases have been turning up at the rate of about 150 new cases a day. (it was 186 today). Dividing 150 into 3523 active cases indicates they have this stuff for about 23 days.

[mvonfr]

I've been claiming that to be the solution to Social Security demographic issues for years. I thought they would roll it out in about 2012.

It may be, if SARS is US-made.

However, a full-blown epidemic will hit the US and Europe much harder than (much younger) China... and may assure China's domination within a couple of years. If China is behind this, it was a really nice idea for a bio-weapon...

[Dog Gone]

Pregnant nurse dies of SARS
May 8, 2003

A NURSE who had worked at a Taiwan hospital that suffered a SARS outbreak has died of the disease, just weeks before she was to deliver her first baby, officials said today.

The woman, who died late yesterday, was the first pregnant woman to die of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Taiwan, health officials said. She contracted the illness while working at Jenchi Hospital before it was sealed off last month.

She was later transferred to Mackay Hospital for treatment.

Officials also said a 42-year-old taxi driver was suspected to have died of SARS late yesterday, only two days after he sought hospital care.

The man continued driving his cab for at least four days after he had a high fever but took medicine to keep it down, they said. Authorities were trying to track down people who rode in the taxi.

[hatfieldmccoy]

Okay, it is clear there is a pattern of discrimination here, paging Jesse Jackson, the NAGS, trial lawyers, Hollywood limosine libs and the New York Times et al.

[dead]

Can we beleive the WHO or are they trolling for more money ?

Well, since Townshend's bust for child porn, I'll bet The Who is not selling records like they used to.

[Joe Hadenuf]

The man continued driving his cab for at least four days after he had a high fever but took medicine to keep it down, they said. Authorities were trying to track down people who rode in the taxi.

That incident alone, could be in the neighborhood of sixty people exposed.....Not good.

[CobaltBlue]

>>That incident alone, could be in the neighborhood of sixty people exposed<<

Plus all their friends and relatives and coworkers and health care workers and all THEIR friends and relatives and coworkers and health care workers AND . . . .

[Dog Gone]

The disease is in the general population in only two countries right now, as best as I can tell. Taiwan and China. Everyone else has all known cases locked up, either in quarantine or in the hospital.

Unfortunately, those two countries comprise about 20% or more of the entire population of the planet, so it's not an insignificant problem.

[Joe Hadenuf]

I was just referring to those that took the cab ride. But you are correct, many times that could have been exposed by that one cab ride. And where do people generally take cabs to? Airports, train stations etc......

[Beck_isright]

And since now they said the virus can survive sometimes up to 4-5 days on a surface, the multiplier takes effect. Sixty is nothing. Of course we're not doing anything to stop entry into our country beyond asking "how ya feelin" when they get to the customs post.

[Joe Hadenuf]

Everyone else has all known cases locked up, either in quarantine or in the hospital.

Key word being "known"

Unfortunately, those two countries comprise about 20% or more of the entire population of the planet, so it's not an insignificant problem.

And mix in the amount of trade we do in that region of the world, people moving back and forth.......Well, the possibilities are endless.......

[Joe Hadenuf]

Of course we're not doing anything to stop entry into our country beyond asking "how ya feelin" when they get to the customs post.

Insane.......

[blam]

"Authorities were trying to track down people who rode in the taxi."

Right!

[Beck_isright]

And no one I know (including some Homeland Sec. friends) has an answer about the Canadian problem. Just imagine if a hundred truck drivers in Toronto came down with this and spread it.