Saddam Hussein is seen in public for the first time since 03/20/2003.
Posted on 04/02/2003 11:35:21 AM PST by kattracks
Reclusive Saddam lies low and fuels rumours
By Dominic Evans
DUBAI, April 2 (Reuters) - Within hours of firing their first shots in a war to overthrow President Saddam Hussein, U.S.-led forces hinted that the man who has ruled Iraq for a quarter of a century might be dead.
Since that opening salvo three weeks ago specifically targeting Saddam, rumours have swirled in global markets and media over his fate, fuelled by his lack of public appearances and reliance on broadcasting recorded messages to his people.
But experts caution against writing off a man who, obsessed by security, has lain low for years, saying Saddam's behaviour during the war is entirely in keeping with his reclusive habits.
"It's rubbish to say he's not in control," said Toby Dodge, an Iraq specialist at Britain's Warwick University, dismissing speculation triggered by an address to Iraqis on Tuesday which Saddam left to his information minister to deliver.
"The fact he didn't give a live broadcast is not important. If you can find one incident of Saddam Hussein giving a live broadcast in the last 10 years, I'd like to hear it."
Officials dismiss rumours about their leader's fate as propaganda.
"He is still alive, he is in our hearts, he is our president," senior Information Ministry official Uday al-Taie told French television on Wednesday.
Iraqi television showed pictures on Wednesday of Saddam, in military uniform, smiling and laughing with his ministers. It was unclear if the pictures were new.
Not everyone is convinced Saddam is still running the show.
U.S. generals repeatedly drive home their message that they see no sign of Iraq's military defence being led from the top.
And each time Iraqi television has shown Saddam meeting his top aides or addressing his people, traders, politicians and generals have pored over the pictures to assess what proof they offer that Saddam is still alive and in control.
PALE AND PUFFY
Every message is examined for signs that it could have been recorded before the war broke out. The president's reported use of doubles for many years had added to the confusion.
In one wartime broadcast he seemed pale and puffy and not quite himself; in another he sat slumped in a heavy trenchcoat, looking under the weather.
An address from Saddam, delivered by his Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf on Tuesday, only served to fuel speculation because Saddam failed to deliver the speech himself.
The dollar briefly rallied after Saddam's no-show, boosted by the view that he could be dead or incapacitated -- and that the United States could be close to its goal of "regime change."
"Saddam called for jihad (holy war), but he didn't even show up for it," said one New York trader, adding that the word on the trading floors was that the president was dead.
Saddam is last believed to have appeared in public at a military parade at least two years ago.
He even stays away from his own lavish birthday celebrations every April in his home town of Tikrit.
Shortly before the war he gave two interviews for Western television, one with a British politician and the other with a U.S. television news anchorman.
Many analysts say his extreme caution stems from fears that his biggest threat comes not from the U.S. enemy, but from rebellion within his own armed forces.
"Until the very last day of any U.S. campaign, his generals are by far the clearest and most present danger to his survival," Dodge said.
He said U.S. comments suggesting Saddam could already be dead were aimed at reassuring a domestic audience that the campaign against Iraq, which has faced stiffer resistance than predicted, was close to achieving its goal.
They could also be intended to embolden Saddam's generals, who are unlikely to have seen him in the last two weeks and probably only get their orders by courier, to turn against him.
"They are putting pressure on Saddam himself to show his hand in public -- and then the Americans would get him," Dodge said.
04/02/03 14:04 ET
As several FReepers have now noted, Reuters' excels in rumor and innuendo, lags in accuracy.
He's also been at Room Temterature since about March 21st.
Saddam Hussein is seen in public for the first time since 03/20/2003.
I've also wondered about this. I can't remember what sort of profile he had in Gulf War I. But, I watched an interview with Norman Schwarzkopf on one of the news channels in the last 2 weeks. He said that Saddam was fairly prominent UNTIL we bombed the front and rear of the convoy he was traveling in. After that, Saddam didn't make any more public appearances.
Yes, and I'm sure toby would know.
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