Top US military planner fears a 'likely' repeat of Somalia bloodbath [in Iraq]

The Independent ^ | 15 March 2003 | Andrew Buncombe

[Hoppean]

A former military aide to General Norman Schwarzkopf has warned that a US-led war against Iraq could turn into a disaster that echoes the bloody debacle of Somalia rather than the relatively painless 1991 Gulf war.

Retired Colonel Mike Turner, who also served as military planner with the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes the Bush administration is ignoring potential risks – some that could cost the US dearly.

"There's a saying in military circles: We always fight the last war. It means that too much focus on past enemy behaviour can easily lead to misjudging an enemy capability in the future," he said.

"So I asked myself today which war will this be: Desert Storm or Somalia? In 1991, we had four iron-clad prerequisites for war with Iraq: a clear political end state, overwhelming force to achieve a quick and decisive victory, a viable Arab coalition to avoid empowering Arab extremists, and absolutely no Israeli involvement to avoid a global holy war.

"In Somalia, we ignored the most critical of these lessons. Mission creep turned our original objective of humanitarian aid into simply 'Get Aidid,' the Somali factional leader we were battling. We committed US troops to a high-risk military operation in an urban area with extraordinarily dangerous variables in play on the battlefield, and with insufficient firepower."

Colonel Turner said the US had made the mistake of fixing its sights early on ridding the world of Saddam Hussein. This plan had met stiff opposition from the uniformed staff within the Pentagon, but the administration had chosen this focus regardlessly.

Colonel Turner outlined a worst-case scenario: "Within hours of our attack, Saddam launches Scuds on Israel. Israel's government launches a full-scale attack on Iraq, creating a holy war. Saddam, threatened with his own survival, uses chemical and biological weapons and human shields. He torches his own oil fields, thousands of his own people are killed. Photos of US soldiers amid landscapes of Iraqi civilian bodies blanket the world press which aligns unanimously against the US."

He then envisaged the US left to administer a post-Saddam Iraq with minimal international co-operation and open to terror attacks from al- Qa'ida. North Korea could take advantage and start exporting nuclear weapons.

"These are not remote possibilities, but in my view reasonable, possibly even likely outcomes," he concluded.

[mystery-ak]

This is my greatest fear.....

[Cicero]

So, what else is new?

[TADSLOS]

"So I asked myself today which war will this be: Desert Storm or Somalia?"

Neither.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Maybe so, I tend to expect much of that, but what is the alternative?

While my conclusion my be unfair, given the limits of this article, this retired general seems to be worried only with his military sphere, without considering an ultimate solution. Basically the "That's not my job" mentality.

[homeagain balkansvet]

Sounds to me like he's preparing to fight the last war himself.

Thirty special forces < 300,000 troops.

1 SF company < five US Army divisions, plus six carriers and half the USAF.

We're going to kick ass. Quickly.

[mystery-ak]

Turner is on Fox now.

[knarf]

Col. .... the CIC now is far and away more a man and soldier than x42.

[MEG33]

I doubt there is not one horror scenerio that hasn't been discussed.

[dhardt]

I think we learned from Somalia.

[Hoppean]

Then again, it's just one scenario. Things could go quite well--Drudge is reporting that there are more open acts of rebellion against Saddam taking place in Iraq. Only time will tell, and word has it that the time is soon.

[dhardt]

Giving him more air time...

[mystery-ak]

It's my job to sit at home and worry...LOL

[McGruff]

There's a few differences between this operation and Somalia:

1 - The UN was in charge in Somalia. We are in charge now.

2 - We didn't have overwhelming force in Somalia. We do here.

3 - Norman assumes the Iraqis want to defend this butcher.

4 - We didn't have any locals in Somalia to do our dirty work for us. We will here.

[Fitzcarraldo]

U.S. and British troops take over Baghdad airport and surround the city...

Sadaam launches SCUDs at Israel with biological/chemical warheads...

Israel instantly retailiates with nuclear weapons targeted for Baghdad...

[jlogajan]

'likely' repeat of Somalia bloodbath

Isn't that where about 20 US soldiers killed about 1000 Somalians?

[BillM]

This guy is an ex AF Col. Hardly a combined arms stategist.

[Highest Authority]

The Col. sounds like he has a bitter taste in his mouth because he didn't finish his job! He thinks in military terms over 10 years (and equipment) old. He's a loser!!!

[mware]

A former military aide to General Norman Schwarzkopf has warned that a US-led war against Iraq could turn into a disaster that echoes the bloody debacle of Somalia

The difference is that we do not have Clinton and Les Aspin denying the troops the equipment they need to be successful.

[Cap Huff]

Whether this retired Colonel is good or not I can't say, but the article is clearly written as propaganda. "Top planner" makes it sound like he was in charge of Pentagon planning. I doubt some bird colonel was quite that exalted. Second, they bring in first the name of General Schwartzkopf. Name dropping. As if General Schwartzkopf would endorse the view given here.