Japan Opens an Eye--The consequences of waking a second sleeping giant.

TCS ^ | 03/14/2003 | Kenneth Silber

[SJackson]

TCS

At first glance, it might seem that North Korea has played its hand deftly, provoking the United States when the U.S. is highly preoccupied with Iraq. In fact, North Korea's aggressive moves—stepping up its nuclear program, conducting missile tests, and challenging a U.S. surveillance plane—will likely turn out to be acts of folly, rife with unintended consequences. One such consequence is already evident and is a positive development overall (but not for North Korea's rulers): Japan is waking up to the implications of a dangerous world.

Japan has long struck a balance between the pacifism enshrined in its post-World War II constitution and the pragmatic need for a major nation to maintain military capabilities. But the balance has been shifting toward pragmatism for several years. Japan's role in the 1991 Gulf War—funding the coalition war effort, but not fighting—was a halting step toward greater engagement with security issues. North Korea's 1998 test of a long-range missile—by firing it over Japanese territory—spurred growing interest in a more proactive security policy.

In recent weeks, North Korea has tested shorter-range anti-ship missiles in the Sea of Japan. U.S. satellite reconnaissance has shown further launch preparations, which may be a prelude to another long-range missile flight over Japanese territory.

North Korea, for all its salience, is not the only threat to Japan's security. Japanese policymakers also must consider China, with its potential for regional hegemony, and the Persian Gulf, upon which Japan remains crucially dependent for oil. Terrorism, both international and domestic, poses a threat to Japan. Al Qaeda is known to be interested in disrupting oil shipments through Southeast Asia. The homegrown Aum Shinrikyo cult unleashed chemical weapons in the Tokyo subway system in 1995.

Fortunately, Japanese policymakers show signs of taking their country's security very seriously. Consider some recent indications:

** Japan is conducting joint missile-defense research with the United States, despite opposition from China and Russia. In February, officials said testing of a ship-based antimissile system is expected to start in 2005.

** Japan is deploying its own spy satellites. Two reconnaissance satellites are scheduled for launch on March 28, and another two will go into orbit by March 2004.

** Japan has supported U.S. efforts to impose a deadline on Iraq at the U.N. Security Council. Although not currently on the council, Japan put diplomatic pressure on Mexico and other undecided members to back the U.S. position.

** Japanese military vessels are in the Arabian Sea providing refueling for U.S. and allied vessels engaged in antiterrorism efforts.

Public opinion in Japan retains a considerable degree of pacifism and isolationism, a lasting reaction against past militarism and the horrors of World War II. Yet ideas that once would not have gotten a hearing are being discussed. A defense official recently suggested that Japan would be justified in preemptively striking North Korea to prevent an imminent nuclear attack. It was recently revealed that Japanese defense officials compiled a report on the pros and cons of developing a nuclear arsenal in 1995, not long after the first crisis over North Korea's nuclear efforts. The one country that has been attacked with nuclear weapons maintained its policy against such weapons—for now.

Despite its severe economic problems of the past decade, Japan remains the world's second largest economy and a technological powerhouse in various fields. It has the wherewithal to be a formidable military power, and already is one in various respects. Although its neighbors have long viewed it warily because of its past, a resumption of militarism is an extremely remote possibility. Japan's growing focus on security is a positive development, for Japan and the international community more broadly. It certainly is a positive development for the U.S., which needs capable allies.

After Pearl Harbor, Japanese admiral Isoroku Yamamoto reportedly said "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve." The quote actually may be apocryphal, but it's an apt description of the U.S. response to being attacked—in 1941 and 2001. However, it is better for countries to awaken to threats before they are actually attacked. The rogue states and terror networks of the world have awakened America, and have started to awaken Japan as well.

[never4get]

With a purposeful grimace and a terrible sound
He pulls the spitting high tension wires down

Helpless people on a subway train
Scream bug-eyed as he looks in on them

He picks up a bus and he throws it back down
As he wades through the buildings toward the center of town

Oh no, they say he's got to go go go Godzilla
Oh no, there goes NORTH KOREA go go Godzilla

History shows again and again
How nature points up the folly of a North Korean mad man

History shows again and again
How nature points up the folly of a North Korean mad man

-Blue Oyster Cult

[per loin]

If you were Japan would you feel safe under Bush's protection from North Korea?

[DB]

Only "slightly" modified...

[firewalk]

bttt

[MortMan]

Ummm... Shouldn't that read "Wiath apologies to BOC" :-)

[Citizen Tom Paine]

Perhaps, one of the most significant and long lasting acts of the First Pervert was how he treated North Korea and ignored Japan. A fully rearmed Japan brings consequences which are difficult to predict in the long term.IMHO

[bert]

Japan and Bush are working from playing from the same sheet music.

Americans act quickly, others do not.

[never4get]

I took some liberties, forgive me. Soft White Underbelly certainly would not mind.

[TheCause]

I love it!
Ah, the memories of one of my hero's....Godzilla!

Hey North Korea, when Godzilla's back starts lighting up, you better duck, 'cause he is pissed and here comes some serious fire!

"Godzilla, Godzilla...........Godzilla!"

[Semper Paratus]

"I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve".

Admiral Yamamoto commenting on his Pearl Harbor attack.

[George W. Bush]

It was recently revealed that Japanese defense officials compiled a report on the pros and cons of developing a nuclear arsenal in 1995, not long after the first crisis over North Korea's nuclear efforts. The one country that has been attacked with nuclear weapons maintained its policy against such weapons—for now.

The article fails to mention that a few weeks ago, Japanese officials announced that some weapons-grade plutonium was "missing".

Japan may be quietly building a bomb or two, regardless of what their population thinks of nukes.

It's about time for Japan to re-arm and to take up its part in Western defense. They have dangerous neighbors.

[Princeliberty]

The nation that really doesn't want Japan to wake
up is China, we need Japan to our ally
in fighting China.
China really the who is behind N. Korea.

[George W. Bush]

Agreed. You obviously recognize that the long-term objective of the Bush Doctrine, of which Iraq is merely the opening skirmish, is the building of a global military and economic coalition to contain China. Japan is crucial to that plan.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

You are correct. Nothing happens in NK without the tacit approval and knowledge of Red China. The PRC wants the US out of the Pacific. Peeling us off the Korean peninsula is just the first step.

[myprecious]

There is a fable in Japanese culture called "The 49 Ronins". This story is read by families each year on a special day. I hope I can retell this tale for you.

There once was a Shogun with 49 Ronins (warriors). He visited another powerful Shogun and was the guest at a great banquet. A conflict arose and the host was insulted. He killed the Shogun and sent the Ronins away.

The Ronins were disbanded by the Emporer and scattered. However, they privately swore to get revenge.

For 7 years, the Ronins became worthless drunks. Their families disavowed them and society shunned them. They just became poor drifters and were ignored.

On the 7th anniversary, the Ronins regrouped at the appointed place. They secretly took up arms and went to the Host Shogun's palace.

During the night, the palace was stormed and the Shogun and his family were slain.

The Emporer was summoned. He was sad that the Shogun was killed, but impressed at the honor of the Ronins for avenging the death of their leader. He imposed the death penalty, but allowed the Ronins to commit hari kari with dignity. The Ronin's family rejoiced at the discovery of the Ronin's true plan. They were celebrated for their revenge and remembered in legend.

[hchutch]

Is the code of Bushido making a comeback?

[section9]

Is the code of Bushido making a comeback?

Not as we remember it, but a cursory reading of the Japanese popular press and manga indicates a marked increase in Japanese nationalism.

The Chinese are fools. They are stoking the North Koreans and understand that Kim, while he acts as a foolish, petulant child, makes a great catspaw in their attempt to drive the Americans from the Western Pacific.

What the old men on the Politburo's Military Committee don't realize is that they are creating the condition for China's nightmare scenario: the ressurection of the Nihon Kaigun, the Imperial Japanese Navy.

When the Japanese put their mind to something, they act as one, and can become a terrible force. IN the last century, this led to a terrible miscalculation based on imperial ambitions. However, Japan was isolated and far from her Axis allies, Germany and Italy. Japanese diplomacy would be far more deft, based on an alliance with the United States.

Now imagine the United States Pacific Fleet and the IJN Combined Fleet acting as one force to maintain the freedom of the sea lanes. There is nothing the Chinese could do to counter this force. Their entire strategy to drive the Americans from the Pacific and neuter Japan would come a cropper.

A terrible prospect indeed, for the Chinese. The North Koreans are merely bit players in this larger drama.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[hchutch]

Three nations have been able to put huge and potent sea forces:

1. The United States of America
2. The United Kingdon
3. Japan

If Russia signed on as a partner, then we've got the makings of a stable world order.

[cynicom]

Japan has the same problem that it had during the 1930s and 40s. Small island nation, large population, zero oil and few natural resources. With no friends on the Asian mainland, Japan has no alternative but to re-arm, the sooner the better.