Unnamed Democrat Edges Bush In '04, Quinnipiac Poll Most Americans Are Not Satisfied With Life Today

Quinnipiac ^ | 3/6/03

[areafiftyone]

By a 48 -- 44 percent margin, American voters say they would vote for the as yet unnamed Democratic party candidate for President over Republican incumbent George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. 

Hampered by Americans' dissatisfaction with life in the U.S. and concerns about war and the economy, President Bush has a 53 -- 39 percent approval rating, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Only 9 percent of American voters are "very satisfied" with the way things are going in the nation today, with 35 percent "somewhat satisfied;" 28 percent "somewhat dissatisfied," and 26 percent "very dissatisfied."

In an open-ended question allowing for any answer, 31 percent of American voters list war with Iraq as the most important problem facing the U.S. today, followed by 27 percent who list the economy/unemployment and 14 percent who list terrorism/security.

"This month, we find that an unnamed Democrat would edge out President Bush. The political winds are hard to read this early in the game, but we do know that war and a bad economy are not good for anyone -- especially sitting presidents," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Voters who list the economy/unemployment as the most important problem support the Democratic candidate over Bush 61 -- 32 percent.

American voters support 57 -- 35 percent U.S. military action against Iraq to force President Saddam Hussein from power, with no mention of weapons of mass destruction.

By an almost identical 56 - 38 percent margin, voters say the U.S. should wait for United Nations support, rather than moving alone against Iraq,

"Yes, Americans want to take out Saddam.  No, they don't want to do it alone.  They'd rather take some extra time and round up some help," Carroll said.

If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton seeks the nomination for President next year, she gets the support of 37 percent of Democrats nationwide, followed by:

• Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 13 percent;
• Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 12 percent;
• Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 8 percent;
• North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Florida Sen. Bob Graham with 4 percent each;
• Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich with 3 percent each;
• Rev. Al Sharpton with 2 percent.

Without Clinton, Lieberman gets 21 percent, followed by

• 17 percent for Gephardt;
• 12 percent for Kerry;
• 8 percent for Edwards;
• 7 percent for Moseley-Braun;
• 6 percent for Graham;
• 5 percent for Sharpton;
• 4 percent for Dean;
• 2 percent for Kucinich.

From February 26 - March 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,232 American voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.  The survey includes 470 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

 

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Approve	53	89	25	49	57	49	43	80	48
Disapprove	39	5	69	41	36	42	49	16	43
DK/NA	8	6	6	10	7	9	8	4	9
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Approve	42	54	34	39	43	40	38	62	43
Disapprove	46	34	53	50	49	44	53	28	43
DK/NA	12	12	13	11	8	16	9	10	14
4.  Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004 Here are the choices...Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich
		Dems
Lieberman		21
Kerry		12
Gephardt		17
Edwards		8
Dean		4
Sharpton		5
Graham		6
Moseley-Braun		7
Kucinich		2
DK/NA		18
5. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004.  Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004?  Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich
		Dems
Clinton		37
Lieberman		12
Kerry		8
Gephardt		13
Edwards		4
Dean		3
Sharpton		2
Graham		4
Moseley-Braun		3
Kucinich		3
DK/NA		11
6. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Bush	44	89	9	39	48	39	32	72	40
Democrat	48	6	87	46	44	51	61	23	52
OTHER(VOL)	2	1	1	5	3	2	2	1	2
DK/NA	6	4	3	10	5	7	5	5	7
7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today?  Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Very satisfied	9	18	4	6	11	7	4	14	9
Smwht satisfied	35	52	20	35	37	33	25	55	37
Smwht dissat	28	23	34	28	27	30	35	23	27
Very dissat	26	6	42	29	23	29	35	8	24
DK/NA	1	2	-	2	1	2	2	-	2
8. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
		Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Economy total		27	21	29	28	32	21
Economy general		22	17	23	24	26	18
Unemployment/jobs		4	4	5	4	5	3
Economy other		1	-	1	-	1	-
Education total		3	2	2	3	2	2
Education general		1	1	1	2	1	1
Funding education		1	1	1	1	1	-
Education other		1	-	-	-	-	1
Foreign affairs/Policy total		2	2	2	1	3	1
Foreign affairs/general		1	2	1	1	2	1
Priorities s/b at home		1	-	1	-	1	-
Terrorism/Security total		14	18	9	13	16	12
Terrorism general		11	13	8	11	13	9
Security/Safety		3	5	1	2	3	3
War/Iraq		31	28	36	30	23	39
Budget deficits		1	1	1	-	1	1
Taxes		1	1	-	1	2	-
Poverty/Homelessness		1	-	1	1	1	1
Healthcare/Costs/Insurance/HMO's		2	3	1	3	2	2
Medicare		1	-	1	1	-	1
Senior issues		1	-	1	-	1	-
Lack of ethics/Morality		1	3	-	1	1	1
Family breakdown/Family values		1	1	-	1	-	1
Politicians/Campaigns		4	2	5	5	4	4
Immigration		1	1	1	1	-	1
Other		6	8	3	6	6	6
DK/NA		2	2	1	2	2	2
9. Would you favoror oppose having United States forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Favor	57	84	36	53	63	50	51	81	50
Oppose	35	10	56	37	30	41	39	14	42
DK/NA	8	6	8	9	7	9	9	5	8
10. What do you think ismoreimportant -
A) For the UnitedStates to move quickly against Iraq, even if that means acting without the support of the United Nations Security Council
or
B) for the United States to keep trying to win support from the United Nations Security Council, even if that means moving more slowly against Iraq?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
A) Move quickly without support	38	63	23	32	44	34	36	54	33
B) Wait for supp/Move more slowly	56	34	69	61	51	60	61	43	63
DK/NA	6	3	8	7	5	7	3	3	4

[Bogie]

Well, I would never be so naive as to think that the Devil wouldn't come after them too. But, right now, maybe because they don't actually hold any power, they are the only party that stands with the spirit of the Constitution.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Problem for the Dems is, anyone who actually has a name, is undesirable by a boatload of people. If they could only put "unnamed Democrat who is just great...and you'll find out who it is later" then they might win. Stupid, pointless poll. Comparing an "idea" to a real person....sheesh.

[JohnHuang2]

Re: #74 -- spot on, amigo.

[saxxa]

99.99% of liberals think life under the taliban was better fof the afghans than life with President Bush in office in THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA......PRAY Aand SUPPORT OUR TROOPS!!!

[FRgal4u]

all these polls are meaningless...
case in point - Reagan had a 35% approval rating in early 1983...and we all know what happen in 1984...

Bush-41 had a 85% approval rating in early 1991, and we all know what happen in 1992...

also, look at the issue distribution -

economy - Bush seems weak there - but whathappen if the economy not getting worse and the dow jones industrials are back over 8500/9000 again...

terror - this is a hands down issue for Bush - the only trouble is if we fold the entire al qaeda by 2004 - it could be a double edge sword...lol

war - gee whiz - a marginal issue by 2004 - if it is still an issue by 04 - this means the war is not going well, then all bets are off...and if war is not an issue - this means the war goes well, Bush&Blaire are vindicated - so it wont be negative regardless...

then you look at the gender gap - I think the Male numbers are way off - how can Bush has such a high job approvals in the Males and yet get so few votes in the 04 election...

these polls are for junkies - mean nothing -

afterall, it depends on who's the candidate -

do you trust a guy like Kerry from good ole Mass..
or a minnow Govn like Dean from the far left
and let's not forget good ole Rev. al..

[Bogie]

Yes, your right about the drugs, though I think the average kid in America dosen't deserve to have a jail term over it. (Some big time dealers sure do though.)

The drug issue makes this party seem cheap, at a time when this country never needed the Constitution more. And, maby that's part of the "con." Yet, I hope to help change that.

And, the Cato Instute does have the Libertarian philosophy!

[RichInOC]

I know. It's unfortunate for them that they actually have to nominate somebody, isn't it?

[hchutch]

To be honest, it really wasn't that hard to figure out.

What we have here is, for the most part, a return to the "Cold War" politics from 1968-1988. And the Left is making the same mistakes they made back then, because they are in a corner.

If they go along with the war, their base will stay home or vote for the Green Party, and the Dems lose. But if they placate their base, the GOP will pick up most of the centrists who DO support the war, and the Dems lose.

In short, they are screwed. There are fundamental contradictions with political reality that they are not going to be able to overcome sans a massive realignment.

[Dane]

The drug issue makes this party seem cheap, at a time when this country never needed the Constitution more. And, maby that's part of the "con." Yet, I hope to help change that.

Knock yourself out. The Libertarians are pro-drug and also it seems anti-war like the liberal left.

[Lazamataz]

Voters who list the economy/unemployment as the most important problem support the Democratic candidate over Bush 61 -- 32 percent.

Hello.... McFly....

The economy is as bad as I have ever seen it.

[Lazamataz]

I'm not buying this poll for a minute

You better. The economy is utterly trashed and Americans vote their pocketbook.

[Lazamataz]

I agree that the economy is not as bad off as the left would have us believe, but there are significant problems with unemployment and under employment that certainly creates a visceral as well as intellectual reaction.

It is every bit as bad as, or worse, than the left portrays. I've never seen anything like this before.

[MattinNJ]

The name of Sa'ad bin Laden, 25, OBL's son and heir to the Alquaida corporation was brought up this morning on the news. He is apparently close to being captured...

These guys can run but they can't hide. They really should have started this fight on Clinton's watch. Instead of being vaporized by a drone Allbright would have gone over and apologized to them.

The louder the leftists squeal the more I realize that GW is one of the top 10 POTUS' of all time.

[MattinNJ]

Remember but for the grace of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan in FLA Gore would be president today

I remember watching Meet the Press when Buchanan and Nader were on. It turned out that Buchanan cost GW more electoral votes then Nader cost Gore. I can't remember all the states but I do know that New Mexico would have gone for GW if Buchanan had not run.

[epow]

The liberal mainstream media still has a firm grasp on many in this country.

I know you're right, but hopefully that is slowly changing as more people have access to other information channels.

IMHO the liberal media has planted the belief in the public's psyche that presidents bear total responsibility for the state of the national economy. That belief has worked for many electoral cycles, purely by chance IMHO, to the advantage of the media's favored candidates, liberal Democrats.

I mean by that, the phenomenon known as the business cycle has by chance favored the Democratic administration for the past 7 or more decades. That phenomenon seems to operate largely independent from government fiscal policy, and Republican presidents have usually had the great misfortune of riding the downside of the cycle. I offer Hoover, Nixon (as Ike's VP), Ford (although the Nixon pardon hurt him too), and Bush #1. Only once in recent history has the cycle worked against a Democrat, the bumbling, clueless Jimmy Carter. It appears to me that the liberal media has a powerful interest in promoting the notion that the economic philosophy of administrations determines the economic health of the nation.

Hopefully the dismal pattern will be broken in '04. I am very hopeful that by then the tide will be running in favor of the Bush administration, and for once the fallacy that presidents are wholly responsible for the state of the economy can work to our benefit. (fingers crossed)

[ZULU]

Having been polled by Quinnipiac in the past, I KNOW they operate a slanted and biased poll.

The jerk who runs it, one Mr. Carroll, is a doctrinaire left-wing liberal Democrat. (His son is an outstanding New Jersey Conservative Republican Assemblyman - pro-gun, anti-abortion, and strongly pro-Constitution. I guess all the Brains in the family went to the son.)

[JohnHuang2]

In short, they are screwed.

Exactly. Classic Catch-22.

[Dan from Michigan]

I don't think pool is crap either. The economy sucks.

It would not suprise me to see "President Graham" if he gets past the primary unless things turn around quick.

[philosofy123]

W. will probably going to end up being a one term President if the Demon-Rats get organized to demonize him as inarticulate?. They are not too vocal now because of the Iraq thing. Remember lots of Demon-Rats are backing the Iraq thing. Once that thing is over, the late night comics will unleash their hate campaign.

[epow]

to equate LIEberman with an TX Horned toad is an insult to the Texas Short-Horned Lizard

Please accept my most humble apologies for insulting the magnificent TX Short-Horned Lizard by comparing it to the junior Senator from CT. For some reason I am reminded of some reptilian-featured life form whenever I see the Senator on TV, and the TSHL came first to mind.

My father's side of our family goes back to the 1840's as citizens of the great state of TX. Many of my relatives reside in various sections of that great state even today. In no way would I ever knowingly insult an esteemed citizen of that state, and by virtue of having lived there for untold millennia, the Texas Short-Horned Lizard certainly qualifies for that honor. Please forget I ever mentioned TX lizards and Lieberman in the same sentence.

(Is that enough or should I grovel some more?)