Unnamed Democrat Edges Bush In '04, Quinnipiac Poll Most Americans Are Not Satisfied With Life Today

Quinnipiac ^ | 3/6/03

[areafiftyone]

By a 48 -- 44 percent margin, American voters say they would vote for the as yet unnamed Democratic party candidate for President over Republican incumbent George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. 

Hampered by Americans' dissatisfaction with life in the U.S. and concerns about war and the economy, President Bush has a 53 -- 39 percent approval rating, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Only 9 percent of American voters are "very satisfied" with the way things are going in the nation today, with 35 percent "somewhat satisfied;" 28 percent "somewhat dissatisfied," and 26 percent "very dissatisfied."

In an open-ended question allowing for any answer, 31 percent of American voters list war with Iraq as the most important problem facing the U.S. today, followed by 27 percent who list the economy/unemployment and 14 percent who list terrorism/security.

"This month, we find that an unnamed Democrat would edge out President Bush. The political winds are hard to read this early in the game, but we do know that war and a bad economy are not good for anyone -- especially sitting presidents," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Voters who list the economy/unemployment as the most important problem support the Democratic candidate over Bush 61 -- 32 percent.

American voters support 57 -- 35 percent U.S. military action against Iraq to force President Saddam Hussein from power, with no mention of weapons of mass destruction.

By an almost identical 56 - 38 percent margin, voters say the U.S. should wait for United Nations support, rather than moving alone against Iraq,

"Yes, Americans want to take out Saddam.  No, they don't want to do it alone.  They'd rather take some extra time and round up some help," Carroll said.

If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton seeks the nomination for President next year, she gets the support of 37 percent of Democrats nationwide, followed by:

• Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 13 percent;
• Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 12 percent;
• Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 8 percent;
• North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Florida Sen. Bob Graham with 4 percent each;
• Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich with 3 percent each;
• Rev. Al Sharpton with 2 percent.

Without Clinton, Lieberman gets 21 percent, followed by

• 17 percent for Gephardt;
• 12 percent for Kerry;
• 8 percent for Edwards;
• 7 percent for Moseley-Braun;
• 6 percent for Graham;
• 5 percent for Sharpton;
• 4 percent for Dean;
• 2 percent for Kucinich.

From February 26 - March 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,232 American voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.  The survey includes 470 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

 

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Approve	53	89	25	49	57	49	43	80	48
Disapprove	39	5	69	41	36	42	49	16	43
DK/NA	8	6	6	10	7	9	8	4	9
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Approve	42	54	34	39	43	40	38	62	43
Disapprove	46	34	53	50	49	44	53	28	43
DK/NA	12	12	13	11	8	16	9	10	14
4.  Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004 Here are the choices...Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich
		Dems
Lieberman		21
Kerry		12
Gephardt		17
Edwards		8
Dean		4
Sharpton		5
Graham		6
Moseley-Braun		7
Kucinich		2
DK/NA		18
5. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004.  Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004?  Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich
		Dems
Clinton		37
Lieberman		12
Kerry		8
Gephardt		13
Edwards		4
Dean		3
Sharpton		2
Graham		4
Moseley-Braun		3
Kucinich		3
DK/NA		11
6. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Bush	44	89	9	39	48	39	32	72	40
Democrat	48	6	87	46	44	51	61	23	52
OTHER(VOL)	2	1	1	5	3	2	2	1	2
DK/NA	6	4	3	10	5	7	5	5	7
7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today?  Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Very satisfied	9	18	4	6	11	7	4	14	9
Smwht satisfied	35	52	20	35	37	33	25	55	37
Smwht dissat	28	23	34	28	27	30	35	23	27
Very dissat	26	6	42	29	23	29	35	8	24
DK/NA	1	2	-	2	1	2	2	-	2
8. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
		Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Economy total		27	21	29	28	32	21
Economy general		22	17	23	24	26	18
Unemployment/jobs		4	4	5	4	5	3
Economy other		1	-	1	-	1	-
Education total		3	2	2	3	2	2
Education general		1	1	1	2	1	1
Funding education		1	1	1	1	1	-
Education other		1	-	-	-	-	1
Foreign affairs/Policy total		2	2	2	1	3	1
Foreign affairs/general		1	2	1	1	2	1
Priorities s/b at home		1	-	1	-	1	-
Terrorism/Security total		14	18	9	13	16	12
Terrorism general		11	13	8	11	13	9
Security/Safety		3	5	1	2	3	3
War/Iraq		31	28	36	30	23	39
Budget deficits		1	1	1	-	1	1
Taxes		1	1	-	1	2	-
Poverty/Homelessness		1	-	1	1	1	1
Healthcare/Costs/Insurance/HMO's		2	3	1	3	2	2
Medicare		1	-	1	1	-	1
Senior issues		1	-	1	-	1	-
Lack of ethics/Morality		1	3	-	1	1	1
Family breakdown/Family values		1	1	-	1	-	1
Politicians/Campaigns		4	2	5	5	4	4
Immigration		1	1	1	1	-	1
Other		6	8	3	6	6	6
DK/NA		2	2	1	2	2	2
9. Would you favoror oppose having United States forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Favor	57	84	36	53	63	50	51	81	50
Oppose	35	10	56	37	30	41	39	14	42
DK/NA	8	6	8	9	7	9	9	5	8
10. What do you think ismoreimportant -
A) For the UnitedStates to move quickly against Iraq, even if that means acting without the support of the United Nations Security Council
or
B) for the United States to keep trying to win support from the United Nations Security Council, even if that means moving more slowly against Iraq?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
A) Move quickly without support	38	63	23	32	44	34	36	54	33
B) Wait for supp/Move more slowly	56	34	69	61	51	60	61	43	63
DK/NA	6	3	8	7	5	7	3	3	4

[Dont Mention the War]

And now, the translation from Quinnipiac PR into English:

Frequently cited by journalists, public officials and researchers, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll regularly surveys residents in Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and nationwide about political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern, such as schools, taxes, transportation, municipal services, and the environment. Known for its exactness and thoroughness, the poll was selected a "winner" by the New York Post for the most accurate prediction on the Schumer-D'Amato Senate race in 1998, and results are featured regularly in The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, and on national network news broadcasts. Student interviewers use a computer-assisted telephone interviewing system to collect data from tri-state residents. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over are interviewed over five or six days. The polls are conducted at the Polling Institute on New Road, adjacent to the main campus.

"Our polls are routinely cited by the hungry-for-any-data, intensely competetitive NYC news media. Hell, They'd run the results of Ralph's Poll Service if the "results" Ralph provided were conveniently different from every respected poll company .. just as our polls are treated. We got really lucky on a single race call five years ago, and have been coasting on the coattails of that one correct prediction ever since, even though we routinely do at least one high profile poll every months."

[uncbob]

After Iraq folds in 15 minutes and OBL is captured (IMHO both will happen within 2 weeks) GW's approval will shoot through the roof

Yep just like his father's did and what happened to him

Remember but for the grace of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan in FLA Gore would be president today

[uncbob]

Just heard on ABC Radio news that sources indicate we think we know where Osama is and are closing in on him. Imagine hat the capture of Osama will do for the stock market, the economy and these polls.

and a month later the average American won't remember who Bin Laden was

[Bogie]

I just quit the Republican party and went with the libertarians. I agree with almost everything that I read at the Cato Instute website, and don't want to be in the same party with Rumsfeld and McCain.

And, both the Democrats and the Republicans have not been living up to their oath of office. Both have been trying to get around the Constitution to further their agendas.

[skinkinthegrass]

Hitlery and Lieberman. I can't help but believe she is the most hated woman in America, outside CA and the NE at least, and Lieberman has all the charisma and voter appeal of a TX horned toad...

While she IS...etc., to equate LIEberman with an TX Horned toad is an insult to the Texas Short-Horned Lizard...they're handsome compared to these two EVIL Creatures...the Lizards can't help it...these two EVIL Creatures are in class as MAO, STALIN, HITLER, POL POT,BILL C., JIM WRIGHT...etc...all scum of the earth.

[Dane]

Interesting that two different polls done duirng the same time period have a wide difference in % approval of the President.

My hunch is that Quinnipac skewed their poll in the liberal metropolitan areas of the NE.

[TLBSHOW]

bump

[flamefront]

Hillary's Running, for sure.

The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll has always been the one to emphasize push Hillary's popularity -

• 2000: Poll: Hillary Clinton hits 50 percent for first time helped cinch the race against Lazio.
• Nov. 13, 2002: Quinnipiac Poll: Hillary Runs Strong Against Bush

Independent? You be the judge.

[RightWhale]

OBL is captured (IMHO both will happen within 2 weeks)

The name of Sa'ad bin Laden, 25, OBL's son and heir to the Alquaida corporation was brought up this morning on the news. He is apparently close to being captured in the region between Iran and Pakistan. He is the Number One of Alqaida since last year, and possibly since 15 Dec 01.

[areafiftyone]

That is your choice. I cannot say anything more. I hope the Libertarian party turns out to be everything you hope for and I am not being sarcastic. I really mean it. Being able to do what you did is what makes our country great! :-)

[meyer]

I agree that the economy is not as bad off as the left would have us believe, but there are significant problems with unemployment and under employment that certainly creates a visceral as well as intellectual reaction. Interest rates can't get much lower, refinancing will have to run its course eventually and that may effect consumer spending and send things worse.

Agreed - though refinancing in the long run is usually better. In my case, I spent a bit up front for a lower rate, but my break-even point is only 26 months (+/-) or so into the future. From that point on, its all positive. I beleive that despite many folks taking on bitter mortgages with a refinance (roll your credit debt into one low monthly payment!!!!), most of us just work it towards paying less overall interest to the bank during the course of ownership of the property.

One thing that the lower interest rate has inspired is the movement of housing as a whole. I don't know about the whole country, but they're building as fast as they can around here. Its strange. (Oddly, we have a very low unemployment rate locally, something around 4%). Anyway, once people settle into their respective abodes and are satisfied again, housing will slow down. It remains to be seen where people will put their money after that (if they have any).

I'm no economist or expert, but that visceral 'sense' of how things are, regardless of fact will influence a bunch of people's votes.

Yes, you are right. In some cases, it is a personal economic reality, but in others, the sense is derived from sensationalized news stories. The liberal mainstream media still has a firm grasp on many in this country.

[JohnHuang2]

My hunch is that Quinnipac skewed their poll in the liberal metropolitan areas of the NE.

Dittos.

[hchutch]

Lieberman has his own problem.

He's just too hawking for the Dem base. They will go to the Green Party in a protest vote in enough areas to hand the election to Bush.

Not that I would OBJECT to such a thing, but it would kill the Dems.

[Bogie]

Go Libertarian! I did, and I'm actually a distant cousin of GWB's.

[TLBSHOW]

we are in trouble and until the republicans get their act together I fear for what I thought back in Novemeber was a landslide in 2004

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Latest: Feb. 25-26, 2003. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
.

"If the 2004 presidential election were held today, do you think you would be more likely to vote to reelect President Bush OR for the Democratic candidate?"


2/03 Bush 42% democrats 38%


11/02 Bush 44% democrats 21%

[flamefront]

American voters say they would vote for the as yet unnamed Democratic party candidate for President

Hillary has been registered for years for the 2004 election, check the FEC records.

There is no such thing as an "unnamed" candidate.

Name her - Hillary.

[areafiftyone]

BARF - there goes my lunch!

[Dane]

Go Libertarian! I did, and I'm actually a distant cousin of GWB's.

Actually for truth in advertising the link you gave should be the political arm of Libertarianism, Libertarian Party, not the Cato Institute.

People can read the LP's pro-drug and basically pro-saddam rants there.

[RetiredArmy]

The people interviewed for this poll must have all be college professors from this so called institution of higher learning.