Unnamed Democrat Edges Bush In '04, Quinnipiac Poll Most Americans Are Not Satisfied With Life Today

Quinnipiac ^ | 3/6/03

[areafiftyone]

By a 48 -- 44 percent margin, American voters say they would vote for the as yet unnamed Democratic party candidate for President over Republican incumbent George W. Bush, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. 

Hampered by Americans' dissatisfaction with life in the U.S. and concerns about war and the economy, President Bush has a 53 -- 39 percent approval rating, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Only 9 percent of American voters are "very satisfied" with the way things are going in the nation today, with 35 percent "somewhat satisfied;" 28 percent "somewhat dissatisfied," and 26 percent "very dissatisfied."

In an open-ended question allowing for any answer, 31 percent of American voters list war with Iraq as the most important problem facing the U.S. today, followed by 27 percent who list the economy/unemployment and 14 percent who list terrorism/security.

"This month, we find that an unnamed Democrat would edge out President Bush. The political winds are hard to read this early in the game, but we do know that war and a bad economy are not good for anyone -- especially sitting presidents," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Voters who list the economy/unemployment as the most important problem support the Democratic candidate over Bush 61 -- 32 percent.

American voters support 57 -- 35 percent U.S. military action against Iraq to force President Saddam Hussein from power, with no mention of weapons of mass destruction.

By an almost identical 56 - 38 percent margin, voters say the U.S. should wait for United Nations support, rather than moving alone against Iraq,

"Yes, Americans want to take out Saddam.  No, they don't want to do it alone.  They'd rather take some extra time and round up some help," Carroll said.

If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton seeks the nomination for President next year, she gets the support of 37 percent of Democrats nationwide, followed by:

• Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 13 percent;
• Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 12 percent;
• Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 8 percent;
• North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Florida Sen. Bob Graham with 4 percent each;
• Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich with 3 percent each;
• Rev. Al Sharpton with 2 percent.

Without Clinton, Lieberman gets 21 percent, followed by

• 17 percent for Gephardt;
• 12 percent for Kerry;
• 8 percent for Edwards;
• 7 percent for Moseley-Braun;
• 6 percent for Graham;
• 5 percent for Sharpton;
• 4 percent for Dean;
• 2 percent for Kucinich.

From February 26 - March 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,232 American voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.  The survey includes 470 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

 

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Approve	53	89	25	49	57	49	43	80	48
Disapprove	39	5	69	41	36	42	49	16	43
DK/NA	8	6	6	10	7	9	8	4	9
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Approve	42	54	34	39	43	40	38	62	43
Disapprove	46	34	53	50	49	44	53	28	43
DK/NA	12	12	13	11	8	16	9	10	14
4.  Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004 Here are the choices...Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich
		Dems
Lieberman		21
Kerry		12
Gephardt		17
Edwards		8
Dean		4
Sharpton		5
Graham		6
Moseley-Braun		7
Kucinich		2
DK/NA		18
5. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004.  Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004?  Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Florida Senator Bob Graham, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun or Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich
		Dems
Clinton		37
Lieberman		12
Kerry		8
Gephardt		13
Edwards		4
Dean		3
Sharpton		2
Graham		4
Moseley-Braun		3
Kucinich		3
DK/NA		11
6. If George W. Bush runs for re-election in 2004, in general are you more likely to vote for Bush or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Bush	44	89	9	39	48	39	32	72	40
Democrat	48	6	87	46	44	51	61	23	52
OTHER(VOL)	2	1	1	5	3	2	2	1	2
DK/NA	6	4	3	10	5	7	5	5	7
7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today?  Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Very satisfied	9	18	4	6	11	7	4	14	9
Smwht satisfied	35	52	20	35	37	33	25	55	37
Smwht dissat	28	23	34	28	27	30	35	23	27
Very dissat	26	6	42	29	23	29	35	8	24
DK/NA	1	2	-	2	1	2	2	-	2
8. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
		Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom
Economy total		27	21	29	28	32	21
Economy general		22	17	23	24	26	18
Unemployment/jobs		4	4	5	4	5	3
Economy other		1	-	1	-	1	-
Education total		3	2	2	3	2	2
Education general		1	1	1	2	1	1
Funding education		1	1	1	1	1	-
Education other		1	-	-	-	-	1
Foreign affairs/Policy total		2	2	2	1	3	1
Foreign affairs/general		1	2	1	1	2	1
Priorities s/b at home		1	-	1	-	1	-
Terrorism/Security total		14	18	9	13	16	12
Terrorism general		11	13	8	11	13	9
Security/Safety		3	5	1	2	3	3
War/Iraq		31	28	36	30	23	39
Budget deficits		1	1	1	-	1	1
Taxes		1	1	-	1	2	-
Poverty/Homelessness		1	-	1	1	1	1
Healthcare/Costs/Insurance/HMO's		2	3	1	3	2	2
Medicare		1	-	1	1	-	1
Senior issues		1	-	1	-	1	-
Lack of ethics/Morality		1	3	-	1	1	1
Family breakdown/Family values		1	1	-	1	-	1
Politicians/Campaigns		4	2	5	5	4	4
Immigration		1	1	1	1	-	1
Other		6	8	3	6	6	6
DK/NA		2	2	1	2	2	2
9. Would you favoror oppose having United States forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
Favor	57	84	36	53	63	50	51	81	50
Oppose	35	10	56	37	30	41	39	14	42
DK/NA	8	6	8	9	7	9	9	5	8
10. What do you think ismoreimportant -
A) For the UnitedStates to move quickly against Iraq, even if that means acting without the support of the United Nations Security Council
or
B) for the United States to keep trying to win support from the United Nations Security Council, even if that means moving more slowly against Iraq?
							Most important problem
	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Econ	Terror	War
A) Move quickly without support	38	63	23	32	44	34	36	54	33
B) Wait for supp/Move more slowly	56	34	69	61	51	60	61	43	63
DK/NA	6	3	8	7	5	7	3	3	4

[Lee Heggy]

"Most Americans Are Not Satisfied With Life Today."

Yeah, don'tcha miss the good old days...the Klan, no woman's sufferage, the workhouses, Tammany Hall, child labor, dysentry and cholera, really painful dentistry and high mortality in childbirth.

...yeah, the days when you could step on a rusty nail and get tetanus and die any time you wanted. THAT was real freedom.

[Dan from Michigan]

I don't know what's going to happen in 2006, but there are three things to remember.
1. Electoral college
2. Bush squeaked by in 2000
3. ECONOMY.

[Dont Mention the War]

This poll is methodologically bankrupt. To give you an idea of how "randomly selected" their pollees are, I get called by them to answer questions like clockwork once a month. That alone makes this poll completely worthless, and explains why it's a total outlier that is giving different results than practically every other poll out there.

Put more bluntly, this poll is CRAP. It's a bunch of undergrads learning how to become accurate pollsterwsers, but haven't quite gotten it down yet. This should be tossed in the circular file.

[amexmike]

the Truth: They got all 1207 surveys taken yesterday during the "day-off" protests at the University. Then released the poll today.

[cactusSharp]

can't stop that......Hillary HAS to run in'04 becuase she must get the justice dept records against her and hubbie
they didn't pardon Marc Rich to get to heaven.....

and imagine Hillary's ass in '08 as a first run

[MississippiMan]

Sadly, there are many voters who will fall for it.

You bet there are. As you pointed out, we should never forget that this country elected Bill Clinton not once, but twice, and by a much larger margin the second time after it was apparent to anyone with a brain what he was. Doesn't matter that the Republicans put Dole up against him—people with a conscience shouldn't have voted for him no matter who his opponent was. And people who did that will do anything.

The only thing that gives me any hope of keeping her out of the White House is that perhaps many older Democrat voters aren't quite ready for a woman as president. That may be enough to tip the scales. Maybe.

MM

[areafiftyone]

I am getting more and more convinced that 2008 is going to be Hillary's run! She is becoming more powerful in the Senate because the democreeps are letting her. All she needs is a few more years under her belt and then she will run.

[rs79bm]

Oh Boy!!! An unnamed Democrat. We should be scared now!!!

[Notwithstanding]

amen

but i think it is more like MEGA-YICK

this is the dims Bob Dole election cycle - they just aint gots nobody who is viable

[JohnHuang2]

From February 26 - March 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,232 American voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. 

An ABCNEWS/Washington Post Poll, conducted during the same period, pegs Bush's job approval much higher, at 62%.

[RobbyS]

Juan and Evita own a considerable bloc of the Democratic vote. This group votes against Bush 100% on very occasion.

[areafiftyone]

MEET THE UN-NAMED DEMOCREEP!

[Notwithstanding]

The biassed author implies that people would prefer ANYONE but Bush.

But the real story is that people would prefer to BUsh to ANYONE the dims have to offer.

[meyer]

The upcoming war is obviously a kicker, but absent that, it really is the economy.......

Yes, you are right. Unfortunately, most voters don't have a grasp at the simple concept of supply and demand. Thus they didn't (and still don't) recognize a hyperactive economy like that of the late 1990's that was based on overextended credit and speculation, much like that of the 1920's. Oh, granted, they do know plenty of their personal economy, but they either cannot or don't wish to grasp the big picture.

This poll does illustrate that the liberal media's continued attack on the economy is gaining traction. We're not in a recession, and yet they call it one. The overall market's primary downward force is both the uncertainty as related to the Iraq situation, and the correction from the late 1990's when "artificial exuberance" was king. What magnifies the idea that the economy is in sad shape is that the liberals are selectively using the stock market as the only indicator of economic strength while they talk things down.

Perception outranks reality.

[The Wizard]

can you spell h-o-r-s-e-s-h-i-t

[epow]

in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

Well DUHH! Of course Bush would lose in those bastions of socialistic dementia. Now let them take a poll is some states south of the Mason-Dixon line and see how their beloved Hitlery makes out.

I think it's great that the two top Dem vote-getters are Hitlery and Lieberman. I can't help but believe she is the most hated woman in America, outside CA and the NE at least, and Lieberman has all the charisma and voter appeal of a TX horned toad. Millions of people who have never voted before in their entire lives would turn out in a raging blizzard to vote against Hitlery.

Most people instinctively like Bush even if they don't agree with some of his agenda. It's fact that a large percentage of people vote for who they like as a person, not whose programs or politics they most agree with. Bush will mop the floor with any of the Dems listed in this worthless poll.

[Dane]

Two years into Sinkmaster's Presidency, polls said Bob Dole would defeat Bill Clinton in 1996, and President Reagan's approval rating was under 40% in 1982. We all know what happened.

Exactly, although a lot of people on this thread will be getting the vapors.

Polls are a snapshot in time and right now the times are uncertain, when the war is won, things will get back to normal. Oil prices will sink and the stock market should rise considerably.

Capital spending held back because of uncertainty will give a boost to the economy after the war, IMHO.

[skinkinthegrass]

Typical Liberal WET...dream...America's Terror

[RJCogburn]

I agree that the economy is not as bad off as the left would have us believe, but there are significant problems with unemployment and under employment that certainly creates a visceral as well as intellectual reaction. Interest rates can't get much lower, refinancing will have to run its course eventually and that may effect consumer spending and send things worse.

I'm no economist or expert, but that visceral 'sense' of how things are, regardless of fact will influence a bunch of people's votes.