Posted on 03/04/2003 8:56:20 AM PST by Spook86
North Korea's recent intercept of a U.S. RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft was a carefully planned operation that brought four of its MiG fighters dangerously close to the American aircraft. However, the incident also highlighted proceedural errors that allowed the MiGs to close within 100 feet of the RC-135. The reverberations from this incident will be felt throughout the intelligence community and likely prompt a major review of RC-135 employment tactics.
Officially, the U.S. has acknowledged that NK fighters closed to within 50 feet of the reconniassance aircraft as it flew over the Sea of Japan last weekend. The Pentagon also revealed that the RC-135 in question was not a Rivet Joint platform that performs signals intelligence (SIGINT) collection against targeted countries. Instead, the RC-135 intercepted last weekend was a Cobra Ball variant, specially configured to monitor ballistic missile tests. According to unclassified sources, there are only a handful of these aircraft in existence. Based at Eielson AFB, Alaska, Cobra Ball deploys when a missile test appears imminent. The presence of Cobra Ball over the Sea of Japan last weekend indicates that North Korea's threatened test of a Tapeodong-2 missile may soon become a reality. It seems unlikely that the aircraft was conducting a training mission in the area, given recent tnesions between the U.S. and North Korea, and the restrictive ROE (rules of engagement) that govern RC-135 ops against that country.
As the RC-135 waited for a possible missile test, North Korean fighters did something they haven't done in more than 30 years--closing to within a few yards of a U.S. reconniassance aircraft. This is remarkable, for several reasons. First, the aircraft involved in the incident (MiG-23s and MiG-29s) typically don't respond to our recce flights over the Sea of Japan. These fighters--the best NK has in its inventory--are normally based near Pyongyang, on the western side of the Korean Peninsula. Their ability to close rapidly on the RC-135 suggests they were deployed to a base on the eastern coast, in preparation for the intercept.
It's also unusual for NK pilots to intercept a target more than 150 miles off their coast. Steeped in Soviet-style tactics, NK pilots require extensive assistance from ground controllers in finding their targets. That means lots of radio traffic and/or datalink signals between air and ground, normally detected by U.S. intelligence assets. Those signals, coupled with radar tracking, provide a "heads up" about NK intentions, and provide a warning for RC-135 crews.
Clearly, something went wrong last weekend. Four NK MiGs were able to navigate their way to the RC-135 and the crew didn't have sufficent time to retrograde from their orbit. That's a key point, because (as noted previously) RC-135 ROE for Korean missions are extremely stringent. At any sign of hostile intent, crews are supposed to terminate their mission and retrograde to "safe" airspace. The Pentagon hasn't revealed how the NK pilots managed this feat, but I'm guessing a "comm out" launch from an east coast base in the DPRK, followed by a high-speed run to the target.
Needless to say, there are a lot of red faces about this incident on the American side. In defense of the Cobra Ball crew, it should be noted that their aircraft does not have the same SIGNIT suite as Rivet Joint, and it is not geared toward detecting/monitoring tactical fighter activity. However, platforms like Cobra Ball are supported by other intel assets that provide flight following and tactical warning of emerging threats. Clearly, that warning was lacking over the Sea of Japan.
One final note: the U.S., at one time, maintained fighters on alert in Korea for the purpose of protecting reconnaissance aircraft. However, this mission was discontinued in the late 1990s, due to the "decreased" threat from North Korea. South Korean fighters still pull air defense alert on the peninsula, and that begs another question: why weren't ROKAF F-16s or F-4s scrambled in defense of Cobra Ball.
The post-mortem on this incident has already begun, and steps will be taken to prevent something like this from happening again. Beyond the headlines, the NK Air Force pulled off a daring intercept last weekend, an intercept based on extensive planning and precise execution. It was a carefully calibrated move, designed to rachet up tensions a bit more, and remind Washington that the crisis in Korea has not been resolved. The incident also underscores that Pyongyang is prepared to raise tensions again, by testing a Tapeodong-2 missile in the near future. That likely scenario will mean another call for Cobra Ball--and the potential for another incident over the Sea of Japan.
;-)
On the bright side, the fact they didn't shoot down the -135 shows they are being somewhat cautious about an incident which would undoubtedly have led immediately to war.
They have obviously been waiting for some time, and if the Cobra Ball has been flying in a discernable pattern, they likely were able to project in advance where it would be at a certain time. If the North Koreans haven't been agressively intercepting for the last 30 years, complacency may have set in on our side.
One way or another, seeing North Koreans on the wing must have freaked them out. I know people that see Chinese fighters on a regular basis, and they still find it a little unnerving. Seeing four DPRK Migs closing at full throttle must have been sheer terror.
Maybe the boys at NSA are so worried over an upcoming launch that they don't want to bug out unless there is actual shooting.
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