Nuclear War At Any Moment - N. Korea

Gloucestershire ^

[RCW2001]

14:00 - 20 February 2003

Relations between North and South Korea are now so grave that military commanders have warned a nuclear war could break out at any moment.

This follows an incident in which a North Korean fighter jet briefly crossed into South Korea but retreated after being confronted by two southern jets.

Anti-aircraft missile units have been put into battle position in the South Korean capital of Seoul

Only a few days ago the North threatened to abandon the armistice keeping peace along the countries' tense border.

The incursion, the first by a North Korean military jet since 1983, increased jitters on the peninsula, where the North is locked in a dispute over nuclear weapons development.

KCNA, the North's state news agency and a mouthpiece of the regime, said the situation on the peninsula was now "so alarming that a nuclear war may break out at any moment."

Tension has crept up since October, when US officials said North Korea had admitted having a covert nuclear weapons programme.

Washington and its allies suspended fuel shipments, and the North retaliated by expelling UN monitors, taking steps to restart frozen nuclear facilities and withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

[L,TOWM]

I agree with much of your post. I do feel the need, however, to point out a parallel situation from 61+ years ago.

-An asian nation, resource poor, with a horrible reputation in the region.

-This nation violating arms control treaties it had signed.

-An embargo on oil, and other natural resources needed to keep this nation functioning.

-An estimate that lack of resources would cause a domestic catastrophe.

-Other important regional players occupied with war.

-A lack of fundamental understanding of the US national culture.

-A feeling of entitlement to extend its influence and sovreignty in the region.

So, what else does this sound like? To me it is similar to the situation Japan and the Far East were in in late 1941.

The only thing that is unknown to us (in the current situation) is if the additional thought processes that were going in Japan in late October/early November of 1941 are also occuring in the DPRK today:

-A plausible battle plan.

-An estimation that the US would not be willing to pay a high price tag for bunch of "gooks".

-The top military leadership's belief that a war with the US was PROBABLY a loss going in, but backing down from the US was DEFINATELY an invitation to the mid-level officers to "replace" their leaders.

If these kinds of thoughts are going on in the DPRK corridors of power right now, this will not end well for all concerned.

[RightWhale]

a nuclear war may break out at any moment

I was just a kid when N Kor broke out over the border last time. It was a shock. If it happens again, it will be a shock, and it will happen just as quickly.

[Rebelbase]

After crossing the border, a jet flying Mach 1 would be over Seoul in about 2.5 minutes. If they have a Mach2+ plane, the reaction time would be little more than a minute.

That is to close for comfort.

[Quix]

Very glad to read that.

Thanks.

[Just mythoughts]

You make good points.


Stalin controlled N. Korea at the end of WWII, US controlled the S.

Both sides were to leave, then Stalin sent the North down to attack the South. Stalin made an agreement with China and the Chinese soon followed the N. Koreans.

The Korean War was a UN war and Stalin was not ask because he was boycotting UN, however the North Korean War was Stalin's war agains US. The Soviet Union/ Russia today, have never stopped controlling N. Korea.

Whatever North Korea does and says is on behalf of what Russian government wants done.

China does not want collapse of N. Korean government because they China would have an influx of N. Koreans into China.

Money got real tight in Russia in the 90's so who better than Bill Clinton and his gang provided the funds for N. Korea to build nuclear.

This is not complicated, the whole thing is about the LEFT trying to unseat President Bush.

[Quix]

True.

But I had a number of times well connected types in the Central Kingdom

talk confidently of taking over Australia as their destiny, their RIGHT.

After all--so much land, so few people.

Part of the larger plan for the Chinese millenium as they project it.

And they aren't really planning to stop with Australia, either.

[PsyOp]

I agree.

[OrioleFan]

An "Axis of Evil?"

[L,TOWM]

I'm not too sure as to how much of catspaw the DPRK is for anyone at this point. I know that Cuba and other nations have become pretty much "free agents" over the last few years, after the Soviet Aid Train stopped delivering.

Had RFR been keeping up on food, resource, and ruble aid in the last few years, I would agree with you wholeheartedly, and be pointing the finger at Bush to have a heart to heart with Putin. With the kind of stuff we are talking about here, any hint of Russian involvement in the DPRK's nuclear program would probably be much for the Russians, considering the potential payoff.

No, I think that there is something else at work here. Of course, I don't know everything. This just seems a little too close to another situation of an Asian country's leaders getting themselves into a situation where an unwinnable war look's like the "best" choice available at the moment.

[katana]

I travel to Korea for business a couple times a year and that's what I've been told by people who I thought at the time should know. Having thought it through a bit more, G*d only knows what policy changes may have been put in place by the brass the Sinkmeister had eight years to put in place. Hopefully, things are now back on a firm footing.

On the face of it, one would think there really aren't a lot of conventional options for 37,000 against a million man corps of fanatics primed to go, even when you add in what the ROK forces can do. I'd certainly welcome critiques from anybody with better and more up-to-date information. The Korean terrain favors defense and maybe things aren't on such a hair-trigger. This shield pounding by the North Koreans is probably mostly noise, but it can't be entirely ignored.

[Just mythoughts]

I don't know everything either, just connecting the dots.

Russia is out to stop us from cleaning house in Iraq,
as well as France and Germany, but more importantly so is Hillary and Bill Clinton and the socialist here at home.

China has been laying very low during this time; Russia just sent them more military equipment.

Where are China's interest? Taiwan, Panama Canal, Long Beach, and keeping N. Koreans in North Korea.

It was WE the US Bill Clinton and gang that filled the ruble void to North Korea. Not China, they were getting what they needed from US also. via campaign dollars.

Remember how much money Russia got from us via algore? Large part of this went into Yeltsin's pockets.

I have no idea if Stalin's agreement with China in mid to late 40's is still in effect, but it sure seems that China is keeping a low profile.

We probably will be hearing from them soon, they may try and take Taiwan back.

[Quix]

WELL SAID.

Exceedingly reasonable to me.

I'd be interested in a diversity of informed input on it, too.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

NK is not Japan in 1941. It has no navy and no aircraft carriers. NK has not fought a war in 50 years, as opposed to the Japanese who'd taken China, Manchuria, Korea and others.
This "crisis" has been jinned up by the Red Chinese as a test of our resolve and to help them predict our responses toward their next moves.

[RightWhale]

Yes, Australia is the overflow region for China. This is well-known, but not, apparently, by Aussies or FReepers.

[Wolfstar]

I'm convinced of the same thing, MHKing. North Korea has been stuck in a time-warp since 1952, which explains why their latest rhetoric sounds like it's straight out of a bad Korean War movie. But nutball, Kim Il Jong, is very dangerous precisely because he is unbalanced and has big toys to play with that make huge bangs. I would not put it past him to actually attack South Korea when (if?) we move on Iraq. North Korea's increasing belligerence is yet another reason for us to move on Iraq as soon as possible.

On an only tangentially related topic: Aren't those old anti-military episodes from the TV series, MASH, embarrassing when looked at through the prism of today's events?

[Quix]

WOW, Where did you first run into this idea?

You are the first person I recall even giving it the least credence.

It seems to me that people who pooh-pooh such out of hand have little real awareness of the Chinese mentality or pride.

Thanks for your comment.

[RightWhale]

Where did you first run into this idea?

That I can't say; many years ago. How old the idea is I don't know, but I assume it is ancient, at least hundreds of years.

[Quix]

yOU ARE PROBABLY RIGHT.

It's probably been in the cultural ethos or gestalt a long time.

But these people were connected to the military--that I was talking to. . . or at least in touch with military planning. And they talked as though it was a well thought out firm and serious plan awaiting proper timing for action.

Certainly removing the US from their 'sphere of influence' would be an early priority.

[RightWhale]

But,
In a casual conversation with a student from Beijing about 10 years ago the topic of the South China Sea came up. He stated it as fact everyone in China knows that the South China Sea belongs to China even though China had no presence there at that time.

The South China Sea covers a lot of ground. And a lot of natural resources.
He said:--Of course it belongs to China. See? Is says China right in the name.-

[L,TOWM]

The DPRK has much different operating parameters and war aims than 1941 Japan. Kim & Co. can accomplish all they want without setting a toe into water.

Japan's navy in 1941 was integral to what their warplan required and they believed that they had a shot at making it work. Many of the top Japanese Commanders (Yamamoto and others) knew that if their plan were not executed perfectly, that Japan was screwed. They counseled against war, but then fought it as hard as they could when the military consensus dictated that they execute the contingency they had planned for.

The DPRK does not now seek East Asia, only the southern half of a peninsula with a huge guard dog keepeing watching over that half.

If they can delude themselves into thinking that the US can be isolated long enough for them to establish themselves in the South, this might seem to be a worthwhile gamble for them. I know what I would do if I were in charge of their military and had two or three nukes at my disposal, and a belief that my special forces groups could hit anywhere in East Asia with enough effectiveness to accomplish their missions.

Particularly if I was able to establish the idea that helping out the South Koreans would cost the US plenty.

This was what the Japanese were hoping for in WWII; that they could make the price of rolling back Japan in the pacific so expensive that the US public would demand an end to the war so that fine white young men would stop dying for a bunch of "gooks". It did'nt work out that way for Japan, but it sure worked OK for North Vietnam.

I'm not too sure why every one seems to think the DPRK leadership is a puppet of Russia or the PRC, either. What evidence do we have of this?

Plus, what does not fighting for 50 years have to do with anything? Germany in 1914 had not fought a major war for 43 years, went forth, fought, killed, and died like champions in WWI. Japan had not fought an external enemy for hundreds of years, and kicked the crap out of Russia in 1905, so I'm not sure what that argument is meant to prove.