Removal of Rods @ Nuke Plant Touches Off Increase of US Forces Near Korean Peninsula (Developing)

SBS TV (Korea), KBS TV (Korea) and a bunch of other sources in Korea and Japan ^ | 4 February 2003 (Asia Time) | AmericanInTokyo

[AmericanInTokyo]

[Images from S. Korean TV last night]

News agencies throughout Asia are reporting this morning (afternoon/pm Monday US Time) of the incremental building of US Pacific Command military forces in and around the Korean Peninsula.

SBS-TV from Seoul, South Korea confirms the Pentagon move to fortress up more US forces around the area including one US aircraft carrier, increased mobilization of F-15s and B-1/B-52 bombers (with support from US Forces Japan and increasing force in Guam of long range bombers), cancellation of transfer orders from Korea, increasing by nearly 3000 US Airforce personnel. (Moderator note: Open Source Info).

Top story on South Korea's KBS-TV and SBS-TV,and written press.

The SBS-TV news reporters indicate the decision (although claimed by the US not to be representative of a departure from diplomacy vs. the DPRK) came as a recent reaction to North Korea's move during January to remove the 8000 nuclear fuel rods from Yongbyon facility, in an possible effort to begin immediate mass production of nuclear weapons.

It also said it is a signal of US international military strength to Pyongyang that although the USA will be attacking Iraq shortly, Kim Jong il would be best advised not to be emboldened or mistaken that the US will avert its attention from the Korean peninsula and the latest troubles there.

Additional sources showed the conciliartory, liberal government of Kim Dae Jung in Seoul, had not confirmed the removal of 8,000 fuel rods from Yongbyon, despite recent concern and sudden action by the US in the region).

(Developing)

[jerseygirl]

thanks for your very informative posts! Doesn't NK have an extensive system of underground bunkers? Would they be paranoid/suicidal enough to attack? Maybe we need to offer the "all means necessary" speech pretty soon...

[Nick Danger]

...Will George Bush ever get a break? What next?

[Indy Pendance]

Thanks for being here at FR. I've been following your posts now for some time. You have first hand knowledge over there, and I really have found your information top notch.

[Zebra]

There are really only two possibilities here. One, that Kim Jong il is insane and has sincere militaristic designs on his neighbors and intends to continue his support of axis nations. Two, that he his using the removal of the rods as an upping of the ante to gain concessions on power plant aid and other payola.

If it is the former, you can bet that US, Japanese, Russian and Chinese intelligence have jointly determined as much. In that case, I would expect a devastating attack that would leave counter-attack capabilties essentially destroyed. North Korea would be jointly occupied.

If it is the latter, my sense is that Kim Jong il has badly overplayed his hand, probably because he cannot distinguish Bush from Clinton (remembering how easy and fun it was to snooker a U.S. President). That is a gross miscalculation. It is one thing to pressure concessions by implication--this allows for face-saving appeasement in certain circumstances. Any concession in the face of ecpressed threats is akin to negotiating with terrorists, which is anathema to US foreign policy and national security. In this instance, I think the build up is more show--W's way of saying "get back in line now."

The smart money is on the latter scenario. My bet is that the build up scares Kim Jong il back into his rabbit hole.

I am a hedger, though. If this clown does not back down at once, I believe that we will see Rumsfeld's two front campaign. And I wil bet the farm that both operations are over in less than six weeks. The only difference is that in the case of a Korean conflict, in light of the proximity of Seoul to the DMZ and the number of U.S. troops on active duty in the South, we are MUCH more likely to use tactical nuclear weapons to overwhelm the enemy.

[realpatriot71]

I'm not up on my "North Korean Politics," but what would happen if we left NK alone? I mean, seriously, why or why not would that be a good/bad idea?

[Milwaukee_Guy]

"Good God. Will George Bush ever get a break? What next?"

Almost my exact thought when I first heard of the Columbia tragedy.

Next? How about that zany bunch in India and Pakistan? Or maybe some kooky former Soviet Republic trying to make a name for itself? How about a Turkish and/or Iranian land grab during the Iraq operation?

Wars and rumors of war........

[sharkdiver]

Either way this is a bad time for the N. Koreans to start rattling sabers. We have our hads full with aphganistan and Iraq. Now Kim wants to start flexing muscles to see in my humble opinion exactly what we are willing to give him if'n he puts the plutonium back in safe storage.It is very very scaryKim and Saddam will brutally murder tens of thousands of their of countrymen and not bat an eyelash. we have reason to be worried.

[Spunky]

Jimmy should have listened better to Amy.

He was to busy lusting in his heart.

[Semper Paratus]

I'm not up on my "North Korean Politics," but what would happen if we left NK alone?

They have been exporting scud missles. (see Yemen 2 months ago)
At a minimum they may have to be blockaded, sealed off, against exporting the fissionable stuff and that may provoke a reaction.
'03 will not be a calm year.

[realpatriot71]

They would basically do the same as Saddam and not directly attack America or its interests, but rather supply someone who would? Is this the basic argument?

[Semper Paratus]

They would basically do the same as Saddam and not directly attack America or its interests, but rather supply someone who would? Is this the basic argument?

Yes, except that they have 1 million fully mobilized forces at hair trigger next to 37,000 US and 300,000+ SK forces and enough artillery to destroy Seoul before a counter-strike.

[ATOMIC_PUNK]

GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS AND OUR ALLIES

[LaGrone]

Thanks for your thoughts re: Post 44. I concur with your analysis.

[LaGrone]

Add me to the list of folks who appreciate your thoughtful posts. Thanks again.

[shaggy eel]

Everybody Wang Chung tonight.

,,, thanx a million. I lost my coffee and I've stained my shirt.

[TominPA]

"except that they have 1 million fully mobilized forces at hair trigger next to 37,000 US and 300,000+ SK forces and enough artillery to destroy Seoul before a counter-strike"

When I was stationed there we were briefed that they had over 1,000 long range tubes pointed at Seoul and every US base within 35 Km of the DMZ. Make no mistake these guys are for real and WILL commit cultural suicide to save face. We underestimate them at our peril.

"W" has got his hands full, he'll need our prayers and the dedicated duty and service of all our troops......

[11B3]

I agree fully with your analysis with one possible difference: I think we may use strategic nukes along with tactical ones.

I'd like to see us do something completely different than we are doing, however. Why not issue a warning to NK that any advance over the DMZ will be met with a full nuclear response, accompanied by a complete withdrawal of our forces there? Pulling our troops out shows that we will indeed nuke them - and we're getting out of the kill zone. Where to move our troops? Taiwan, where else. Check and mate for China - this would prevent them from trying Taiwan while we are in Iraq as well.

[Centurion2000]

interesting .... but there is the rick that while we are withdrawing he will invade.

The rest of the world would see it as a retreat and you know that the media will spin it like that too.

[redhead]

Bumping...

[F16Fighter]

AIT -- thanks for the update...

What seems to be the emotional level of alarm or threat for the Japanese people if any, and is there some hue and cry for it's leaders to lean on NK politically, if not militarily?