The Jobless Recovery

Economic Policy Institute ^ | January 24, 2002 | Jared Bernstein

[Red Jones]

The jobless recovery Suffering from the recession’s aftershocks, labor market conditions continue to worsen

by Jared Bernstein

Though the recession that began in March 2001 has not yet been declared officially over, most economists believe it ended early in 2002. However, the labor market downturn is far from behind us. Today’s labor market is much weaker than it was one or even two years ago, and the “jobless recovery” grinds on.

[Red Jones]

You are claiming that medicare is being cut off by President Bush and that isn't so

In Bush' first year he cut real medicaire payments to doctors for all procedures by 5% across the board. In his 2'nd year he cut many procedures by more than 5%, up to 30% even, the cuts were uneven, but just as significant. Many doctors now refuse to take medicaire patients as a result. Everyone who knows anything about this medical industry understands that it is in crisis because we as a society are becoming unable to afford it. Even the lowest technician feels this in his gut. And that is exactly what I said in my statement above. When you deny these obvious facts, then you're showing us all how you're just plain in denial. Bush cheerleaders have a higher priority in their politics than america's welfare. They think about beating the democrats. They think about elevating their idol to a super-human level. They do not care about america.

The poverty rate in america registered it's first increase at any time outside the 1930's in 1968. This was 1 year after the 'war on poverty' began. The poverty rate continued to go up until the early 1980's. Then we made gains again in bringing poverty down under Reagan. Then, when the first King George came in, poverty went up again. Today it is still higher than what it was in 1965. The fact that it has been taboo to talk about this in the media ever since 1970 should speak volumes to the american sheeples.

Decisions were made throughout the 1970's by our government to destroy industry after industry with regulation. The people who ran those industries tried to tell us horror story after horror story after horror story about run-amok regulations from washington that senselessly killed these industries frequently with no gain at all to the environment. Just senseless killing of industry by government. Classic example was the nuclear power plant construction industry. We can't build nuke plants in the US any more because of stupid regs, unlike all other countries on earth.

Sheeples cover their eyes, cover their ears, cover their mouths, see no evil, speak no evil, hear no evil. Even while the government steps on them and their progeny. The sheeple can't figure out what's happening. They worship bush and they crave more, like an S&M pervert.

Nobody contributed more to this downward trend in american incomes than the first King George. That man imposed regulations on our economy that couldn't have been made by an intelligent group of people unless it was their goal to destroy our standard of living. That's how bad the first Bush was on the economy. So, I storngly suspect on this board that worship for republicans and george bush is the key reason why some are in denial.

[Red Jones]

No, we did NOT have a nation, earlier, when " even marginal people were able to make it "

you're simply wrong fellow. In 1965 even the marginal possibly mentally retarded fellow, even the drunkard, even the lazy bum, could get a decent job and buy something in the economy with the money, much better than today. We didn't have nearly as many homeless then. We didn't have people begging on street corners. Nobody would ever stand on the street corner looking for a job back then. Employers actually begged for workers back then. In 1962 unemployment was 2.2%. And we didn't have people starving to death in 65, this is foolish sheepleness to think that we did.

[Souled_Out]

"it seems to me that if we quit extending the unemployment benefits, there are some percentage of workers who would get off their asses and go back to work"

I have seen this line or many similar ones posted before around here.

You and your kind really have hit the nail on the head. I used to make $1500.00 a week now on unemployment I make $309.00 a week. I paid into this system for over 26 years without having to collect one dime. Now I find myself unemployed, older than the average job seeker, with a history of making good money. I have a ton of experience in a field of work that was booming for years.

But your right, I just love being on unemployment as I set and watch my life go down the tubes and listen to all of you dumba$$ know it alls pontificate about how if we did not have anything we would get off our asses and go to work. I have applied for every job that I see and still no interviews, no calls, no chance of getting in the door.

I paid much more into this system than they can ever pay me at $309.00 a week. I put my time in Nam and I did the right thing by voting for GW. I do not blame anyone for the situation I am in but at the same time I do not need to hear from some jerkoff that if I just got off my ass I would find a job.

If they can spend $15 billion dollars to bail out the airlines they can afford to give me back some of my money. It is called unemployment insurance for a reason.

[staytrue]

Why use Insults to drive your point home?

Mr. Jones uses insults for the same reason the democrats play the race card. His arguments make no sense therefore he insults and name calls instead. He starts with the assumption that he is right and if you disagree you must therefore be wrong and a sheeple. It is simple logic. I am right, therefore you are wrong, QED.

By the way, from 1929 to 1939, the US was no shining city on the hill. Furthermore, if you have to go back to the period from 1645 to 1700 to make your argument, you have a bad argument. My argument that the post war US prosperity was due to the fact that the rest of the world was a bombed out destroyed hulk makes more sense than anything I've heard from you so far.

Finally, it is our own crushing debt load at the govt., corporate and individual level and the debt service that goes with it that is killing our prosperity and not international trade. US federal govt. interest payments are 250 billion a year. Add in interest payments of state and local govt. and individuals and corporations and the total dwarfs our 500 billion annual trade deficit. Besides, with our trade deficit, we usually get a product. With interest payments, you get nothing.

[Red Jones]

hey, RLK does a lot of research. His papers get published too. Perhaps it is you that is ignorant.

The problem with sheeples is that they have a lot of pride like anybody else. They grow up in a nice little coccoon where they go to school and they believe what they're taught. They watch tv and they believe what they see and hear. Then, they're taught that information outside this framework they've grown accustomed to in their little coccoon is suspect information. It could be nazi information, or right-wing information or whatever. And any information that comes to them that conflicts with the neat little offially approved version of the world they immediately reject just like good little sheeple robots.

So, theinformation I'm providing here is different from what we're supposed to think about. Our keepers don't want us thinking about this, but the information I've provided is 100% accurate.

People say that they learned in school that full unemployment is 5-6% and they are shocked to find out that prior to 1970 a 5% unemployment rate was considered to be much too high. They started teaching in schools around 1970 that 5-6% was normal. But it was not normal. They have made it normal since then. Doesn't this bother you ???

All over the world governments for many centuries have oppressed the people. Only in America was the exception and only in america we had truly high standards of living for the regular people. Since 1963 there's been a change of tone in our government's priorities. We've become like other countries. They're oppressing us now. And our people are happy about it as is evidence by #1 sheeple nopardons. Brainwashed in school to be ignorant about his own people's history.

[staytrue]

If they can spend $15 billion dollars to bail out the airlines

FYI, if you look at the airlines stock prices, you will find that the govt. hardly "bailed out the airlines". Furthermore, after 9-11, the airlines were order to be closed for a week not of their own free will, but by order of the US govt. This week of closure cost the airlines about 10 billion in lost revenue while they still had to make their payments on everything but fuel. Lots of businesses were hurt by 9-11, but very few were ordered to shut down completely. This is the reason the airlines were "bailed out" although United has declared bankrupcy and US air and American are likely to follow very soon.

[Red Jones]

the economy has always been a great engine of progress for the american people. In the last 30 years it has not been performing as such. Only A Fool Denies This. Period.

Today to get the same standard of living that people routinely enjoyed in 1965 with one person working we now require two people working. The pay people receive has gone down on a wholesale level when we measure it as a basket of goods that can be purchased in the economy for the pay received from one person working. People have done studies and written about it. I've read detailed articles in National Review, in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere showing exactly this.

[staytrue]

You go around and call everyone who disagrees with you a sheeple. Has it occurred to you that maybe you have become a brigadier sheeple ?

[TC Rider]

"That said, it seems to me that if we quit extending the unemployment benefits, there are some percentage of workers who would get off their asses and go back to work."

What do you do for a living tough guy?

What I do now is irrelevant smart mouth guy. Save your bleeding heart crap for someone who cares.

In the past when I've lost a job, I got another. If there was no opening in my last field, I found another field. If there were no opening in the geographic area, I found another area.

My comment was not addressed to ALL the unemployed, but to SOME PERCENTAGE of the unemployed.

In my life, I have known construction workers in the northern states who considered unemployment insurance to be their vacation fund. When it became to cold to work and they were layed off, they were happy to lay on their asses until spring and collect checks, go hunting, fishing, etc.

I also knew some who decided they would rather have a year round job and moved south.

We had a guy here in our office who was layed off in early September. He had grown into a position where he managed a MS Access database. He outgrew his job. He is now competing for jobs with certified professionals, but is happy to keep being turned down so long as he gets a check. He could start work tomorrow in his old job of restaurant work, or he could sell cars or take any one of the hundreds of jobs on the market. So long as he gets a check, he's not motivated.

I think Bush has the right idea, offering $3000 to chronic unemployed to get them to move out of depressed areas and into areas where there are plenty of jobs.

FWIW, some of my career choices have included, digging ditches, wheelbarrowing concrete, carpenter's helper, 76Y30, auto parts guy, parts manager, parts sales, heavy equipment sales, car sales, home improvement sales, auto glass sales, micro-computer sales, computer store manager, computer consultant, IT Manager. And yes, I've drawn a few unemployment checks, but never more than six weeks.

I've also moved from NE Pennsylvania to Denver, to Casper, to Colorado Springs and to Raleigh, NC to get or keep a job.

Am I a tough guy? I don't know, but I am a guy who's had a job and provided for my family most of my life and I never went bleating for a handout. What are you made of?

[staytrue]

around 1970 that 5-6% was normal. But it was not normal

Around 1932, and unemployment rate of 25 percent was normal.

[americanbychoice]

You must be retired, living on Social Security and complaining that you did not help yourself supplementing your retirement. (At least, that is what you sound like) Our ability to supplement our retirement has never been better (IRA, Roth IRA etc.)Today more companies offer various forms of retirement plans (401K, defined benefit etc.) than ever before. Tosay, low wage earners are able to get subsities like food stamps, housing assistance, Kids care and more. Those things were not even dreamed of in the 60's and 70's. Taxes are lower than at that time in history. When you consider that every year 8 million people are added to our work base and most people find jobs, it is an improvement of the unemployment picture.
Just in case you didn't notice, we have been for 40 years a country that is in large part Service oriented with manufacturing focused on high tech and Agriculture.
You would probably be the first one to scream bloody murder if you had to pay the prices that "Made in America" goods would cost. Bringing in goods from foreign countries that are affordable is a luxury you apparently take for granted. International business and balancing domestic government is very complex, therefore, using simpleton rhetoric to try to solve a very complex situation is just silly and won't adress reality.

[staytrue]

In 1965 even the marginal possibly mentally retarded fellow, even the drunkard, even the lazy bum, could get a decent job and buy something in the economy

Have you considered the possibility that if a retarded person or a drunk/ lazy bum can be middle class, that 1965 might be an odd historical aberation rather than what should be taken as normal ?

[Red Jones]

Are you saying that the Department Of Labor provides us with false information. Yes, I would believe that in recent years the unemployment rate may not be reported honestly. It may be purposely under-estimated. Certainly in the last 2 years we've lost 2 million real jobs, that is we have 2 million fewer total jobs in the US today than just 2 years ago. and at this same time the government reports only pretty small increases in unemployment. The wall street journal, Investor's business Daily, Barron's have all run editorials since 1996 openly questioning the honesty of government statistics in the present era. But I think that the Department of Labor was honest about reporting unemployment before this period. And certainly the methodology of measuring unemployment changed in 1993 so that we now measure about 1/2% lower than what we should measure if by the old method. But since about 1870 they've been measuring those statistics. And I don't believe that these stats are generally false. But this view is never allowed to be spoken in schools or in the media. That is why people say it is false. But the department of labor has these stats. When economists look at the details they say that the view I've presented is true. It is simply a taboo view. Sheeples know this inherently and draw away from it in fear.

[Red Jones]

from what I recall you're an immigrant to our country. You have very little historical perspective in that your experience in our country is very limited.

People all over the world have generally been ruled in such a manner as to benefit the rulers, not the people. From an historical point of view our country has been the exception. This explains our great prosperity that has long been legendary. Only in the last 30 years have we made backwards movement.

I think maybe the reason people get upset over this news is that they finally realize that their beloved Republicans and Bush dynasty are just as guilty as the dems at bringing these trends on. Ronald Reagan was the only major national politician that turned these trends around for a few years. Ronald Reagan did not support the New World Order. Ronald Reagan did not hesitate to tell the japanese to either produce cars in america or face negative consequences on their ability to export to america. Ronald Reagan represented us. The modern Republicans have rejected Reagan's politics. Gerry FOrd and George Bush both ridiculed him famously even.

So, modern republican sheeples are upset by what I'm saying. But I don't care about you. I care about the welfare of the american people.

[TC Rider]

Sorry to hear you're having hard times.

Here's a suggestion, U-Haul. I'd suggest moving to NC, but we have little tolerance for whiners.

Keep your 'dumbass' comments and sarcasm for someone who cares.

[Red Jones]

I think that I'd like to build the kind of anation where ajanitor or a dishwasher could afford to get a small place, live there and support a real family. We almost achieved that goal as a society. Now, we're going backwards andmaking it more difficult.

[Souled_Out]

"FYI, if you look at the airlines stock prices, you will find that the govt. hardly "bailed out the airlines"."

You are correct. I used the often-repeated term "bailed out" in too loose of a manner to accurately describe the exact situation with the airlines.

Thank you for bringing it to my attention.

[americanbychoice]

Yes, I immigrated to the U.S. in 1961. Therefore I went through the times you herald.
I am also astute in Economics, have worked as European director for a very large company and am quite knowledgeable about politics, international business and I am retired.
You have not adressed any of the pertinent points I, or others have raised.
I simply can't go along with your assertions about "the last 30 years". Empty rhetoric doesn't cut it in any meaningful discussion. Make a point with substantiation and I will discuss it.

[Afronaut]

What I do now is irrelevant smart mouth guy. Save your bleeding heart crap for someone who cares.

Someone who cares... If you didn't care why did you post? And if what you do is irrelevant then that's your problem.

"but I am a guy who's had a job and provided for my family most of my life and I never went bleating for a handout. " ---You think you different than us here?

From what I see your secret career is IT and let me tell you Sparky it's no longer a Career... It's the Job that you have now and a prayer when you lose it.

unemployment insurance is MY MONEY not yours. If I need it I take it.

You had better tone down you comments about people out of work. Even though you could care less.

[americanbychoice]

It would be correct when you speak of losing 2 million jobs. You just forgot to add the jobs that were created.
If I lose my job for whatever reason and I find another one, the end result is a net "0".