Regards, Ivan
Posted on 01/18/2003 5:09:52 PM PST by MadIvan
A FRANTIC international effort to prevent a nuclear test by North Korea is under way amid diplomatic fears that its confrontation with America is spinning out of control.
Russia and Australia intervened over the weekend with pleas for restraint and America has asked China to dissuade Pyongyang from raising the stakes in the nuclear crisis.
Expert analysts of North Korea have warned their foreign ministries that the drama is unfolding in parallel with the showdown in Iraq and that a nuclear test could be staged within six to eight weeks.
In what one expert has called “the Baghdad scenario”, the regime of Kim Jong Il is expected to wreak maximum damage on American policy by timing any move at a critical moment, such as the entry of US soldiers into the Iraqi capital.
“They are choreographing this step by step with the Iraq crisis,” said one diplomat. “It’s straight from the works of Sun Tzu to strike while your enemy is weak.” Sun Tzu, the classical Chinese military strategist, also advocated deception and guile to win victory without battle.
By staging a nuclear test in one of the warrens of tunnels deep under North Korea’s mountains, Kim would send an unequivocal signal that he cannot be treated like Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader.
The CIA believes that Kim may possess two nuclear devices and the Chinese government thinks he may have five. But there has never been any proof that they actually exist.
A verified test would resolve that but it would also pose a dilemma for America, forcing it to decide between taking military action and striking a deal with a member of President George W Bush’s “axis of evil”. Its gravest consequence would be to maximise pressure on Japan to develop its own nuclear missiles, destroying the balance of power that has kept the peace in northeast Asia for half a century.
China last week told James Kelly, an American envoy, that Beijing’s confidence that Kim did not intend to build more nuclear weapons had been shaken, diplomats said. In a bleak assessment, a senior official told Kelly that North Korea’s decision on January 10 to pull out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty probably signalled a change in intentions.
Intelligence services from six nations have apparently proved unable to find out what Kim’s scientists are doing with stocks of plutonium from a Soviet- designed nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. Nor can they trace supplies of highly enriched uranium from a second, clandestine programme.
The regime shut down monitoring equipment at Yongbyon and expelled inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) before formally quitting the nuclear treaty, under which it had renounced the possession of atomic weapons.
“The IAEA remains a servant and a spokesman of the United States,” North Korea said in a statement. It claimed it had acted because of “the grave situation where our state’s supreme interests are most seriously threatened”.
A Russian envoy, Alexander Losyukov, the deputy foreign minister, yesterday boarded an ageing North Korean airliner to fly to Pyongyang with another plea for restraint.
He crossed paths with Maurice Strong, a United Nations emissary who returned from a visit to investigate the deteriorating conditions of life for the country’s 22m people.
A combination of politics and deprivation has locked Kim into a countdown that he may be unable to stop, say some of the seasoned veterans among the diplomatic community.
Strong’s investigation highlighted warnings that a cut-off in American and Japanese fuel and food aid — caused by the nuclear crisis — will bring the Stalinist state to the brink of a new humanitarian disaster within three months. “You cannot make the children, the ill people, the old people, victims of a political crisis which they have nothing to do with,” said Strong, in apparent criticism of American and Japanese policy.
According to UN documents, malnutrition and illness are spreading again. At least 2m North Koreans are believed to have died in a famine during the 1990s. The country has an estimated 40,000 severely malnourished children, many beyond the reach of foreign aid.
Boasting of its resilience, however, Kim’s regime last week mustered its citizens in freezing city squares for rallies denouncing America.
Kim could rattle nerves by test-firing a ballistic missile, as he did in 1998, when a Taepodong-type projectile flew over Japan. Experts fear the North Koreans could also confuse the international community by detonating a huge conventional explosion in a sealed cavern underground.
Scientists say the seismic effect would resemble a nuclear test but if the site was not “vented” it would not be possible to detect radiation, leaving open the possibility of a bluff.
Pessimistic diplomats have concluded that only a striking demonstration of Kim’s nuclear power will, in his opinion, force America to deal with him.
South Korea’s new government, facing a crisis it never wanted, has toughened its stand and reaffirmed its alliance with Washington. Lee Jun, the defence minister, said his army was prepared for war — which would draw in 37,000 US troops in the country.
Washington yesterday denied claims by Roh Moo-hyun, South Korea’s president-elect, that senior American officials had discussed the possibility last month of attacking North Korea because of its nuclear activities.
Regards, Ivan
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Shoot the SOB down!!
Kim is a child.
If this test occurs, the first thing Bush should do is announce that he will make an emergency trip to Tokyo to consult with the Japanese Prime Minister and his Cabinet.
While there, the President should deliberately insist on Japan's right to self-defense.
At the same time, the Prime Minister should announce that a Navy Bill will be submitted to the Diet for consideration and Imperial Rescript.
Six carriers of the CVNX class should be included in that bill. The President should announce that the United States understands that present conditions require Japan to see to the safety of its people, and that the United States Navy will assist in planning and maneuvers for Japan's projected new fleet.
In a single stroke, all of Beijing's plots and plans would go down the tubes. All because of a vainglorious, spoiled little nutcase of a man who can't leave his palace without wearing elevator shoes.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
;-)
Who benefits?
CHINA
Not to worry, we will just call our best buds in Russia to bail us out. HaHaHaHaHa
"When you're fanny deep in alligators, it's hard to remember that your primary mission was to drain the swamp."
Why, he could even defeat Dr. Evil!!! He may even have mastered the pinky finger on the corner of the mouth bit. Oh, the horror!
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