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Bush Economic Stimulus Package - Some ammunition for you to use when talking about it
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20030106/D7OCSDAO0.html ^ | 1-6-03 | Drewman626

Posted on 01/06/2003 1:00:31 PM PST by Drewman626

This is long, but it’s something that I’ve wanted to write for a long time. This is a couple of points to keep in mind when discussing the upcoming Stimulus Package debate.

First off, my credentials. I hold two degrees in finance and economics. I've been in the banking and financial services industry for over five years. I am currently a financial and real estate investment advisor. I have securities licenses from the NASD as well as the states of Massachusetts and New York.

Ok.

The stimulus package is said to include (among other things):

- The elimination of income tax status of stock and securities dividends

- The extension of unemployment benefits.

- The expediting of the phasing-in of the already approved tax cuts currently scheduled to take full effect over the next ten years. The brunt of these expeditions would be for low and middle-income taxpayers.

My points are these:

Dividends

Approximately 51% of ALL stock and security dividends are paid to Senior Citizens. This is mostly from retirement accounts and annuities.

Most people... especially the people that will read only headlines and listen to the press coverage of this, don't even know what a dividend is.

A short definition: when someone owns a share of stock, they own a small piece of that company. Because of that, when the company makes money, after all expenses and taxes, they can take whatever income is left over and pass it out to their owners (shareholders). Usually, they don't pass all of it out... they take some of that net income and reinvest it in the company (i.e. growth and expansion).

Now keep in mind that dividends are paid AFTER they company pays its income taxes. Meaning, that income is taxed, then passed out to the owners, and taxed again as personal income. This is the infamous "Double taxation of dividends" that nearly ALL financial advisors and CPA's have been complaining about for over thirty years. If you don't realize the significance of passing this legislation, you need to talk to an Accountant. This is HUGE! This is what my industry has been hoping for decades! This is awesome!!!

What are the effects of the elimination of double taxation of dividends? Most people own stock via a mutual fund. A lot of those stocks in those mutual funds pay dividends... which are taxed... which is why the value of your mutual fund may go down, but you still get a tax bill at the end of the year. Now typically, those dividends (after taxes) are reinvested in your mutual fund account (401K dividends are not taxed until withdrawal... hence the 401k tax-deferred status). Now anyone who understands the power of interest can understand that the elimination of taxation on dividends would give people, over time, A LOT more money in their mutual fund accounts... A LOT MORE. This includes 401K's (no taxes paid upon withdrawal because no taxes due! HUGE), non-qualified retirement accounts, Variable Annuities, etc.

It's going to be argued by our opponents that only the rich will benefit from the elimination of double taxation of dividends (or any tax cut for that matter). Well, if their parents or grandparents are receiving distributions from their retirement accounts, they'll benefit. If they have a 401K, they'll benefit. If they own an annuity, they'll benefit. Also, banks determine their interest rates based on how much money they can make by investing your money. If they don't pay taxes on dividends, they make more money... thereby lowering loan rates and upping interest savings rates.

It will also be argued that this package will cost $600 billion. Anyone who listens to Rush already knows what I’m about to say.

A TAX CUT DOESN’T COST ANYTHING

By definition, a tax cut means that the gov’t doesn’t take it from you in the first place. A tax cut is not a budget line item. It’s not a COST.

Secondly, that $600B number is a “fuzzy math” number. Here’s what fuzzy math means: Let’s say you own a store that sells widgets. You price your widgets for sale at $100. You typically sell 100 widgets each month. So your revenue is $10,000 each month. Now if you reduce their price of your widget to, say, $80… well you just cut your revenue down to $8,000. That’s fuzzy math. The mathematical term for this is called Static Calculation. It doesn’t take into account the fact that if you lower your prices, you’ll sell more widgets. So let’s say that at $80, more people want to buy your widgets… and you sell 130 widgets each month. That’s $10,400 in revenue. This is how any store makes money buy selling stuff “half off! Thirty percent off! Until Saturday only!!!” This is called Dynamic Calculation. It’s a basic concept of supply and demand.

Sure, using Static Calculation, a tax cut reduces the amount of Tax Revenue to the Fed. But using Dynamic Calculation, it’s more than obvious that Tax Revenue goes up!

Here’s why:

A tax cut gives people more money to spend and/or save. The spending and saving of money INCREASES the amount of taxes collected by both States and the Federal Gov’t!!! This is a PROVEN economic concept that has been seen in action in the US in the 1980’s as well as in Europe and Canada over the past few years. It’s taught in Macroeconomics (Economics 101). It’s a tried and true concept that never fails. In this sense, a tax cut doesn’t COST anything…. It’s makes more money for the Fed.

Here’s how:

If people have money, they spend it or save it. If they spend it, thereby increasing consumer spending, they help to quicken the economy. When they buy, they pay sales tax (in most states). When a company sells something to that person, they pay income tax on that revenue. Tax Revenue Increase #1 (and the largest).

Now if the taxpayer saves the money instead (another common counterargument by our opponents), two things happen. One, the amount of money the bank has goes up. Now, without going too far into how banking works… a bank takes all the money that people have deposited there and invests it overnight every single night. They make money doing so. They pay taxes on the interest earned by doing so… Tax Revenue Increase #2. Two, when a bank has more money deposited in it, they are allowed to loan out more money. (This is called required reserves. They need a certain amount to cover daily withdrawals from customers, and the rest they’re allowed to loan out. This Required Reserves Rate is set by the Federal Reserve.) When a bank loans out more money, they earn more interest… that they pay more income taxes on… Tax Revenue Increase #3. When a bank loans out more money, that customer takes that loan and either pays off debt, buys a house, whatever… point being that that money is spent somewhere… thereby creating sales tax on the spending and income tax on the purchase revenue… Tax Revenue Increase #4. When a person saves money… that money earns interest… that interest is taxed… Tax Revenue Increase #5. When a person invests money, they either earn interest or eventually pay a capital gains tax... Tax Revenue Increase #6. (The investing of money also increases the overall value of the Stock Market... a very strong PERCEIVED measure of the strength of the economy... thus increasing Consumer Confidence as well as increasing the value of overall investments... thereby creating more taxable interest and more eventual Capital Gains tax revenue... call this Tax Revenue Increase #6B.) This is where the argument that “most people that get the tax cut will save the money, not spend it. That doesn’t help anyone!” falls apart. The banks pay income tax. The saved money earns interest, which is taxed.

And of course, finally… It’s a tax-cut for the rich. The Top 1% of taxpayers (anyone claiming more than $313K in annual income) pays 37.42% of all personal federal income tax. The top 5% (anyone claiming over $128K) pays 67.33% of all PFIT. The top 50% (anyone claiming over $27,682) pays 96.09% of all PFIT. Do the math. To be in the top 50%, you have to earn a mere $27,682. The average taxpayer making less than $27,682 pays an average of $598.03 a year in taxes (about $50/mn… a cable bill… a phone bill… groceries for half a week. That damn Athletic Club dues every school charges…). That’s a tax rate of about 2.14%. Let me ask you… how the hell are you supposed to cut that? Cut it to what, 0%? Fine, cut it zero… it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the other half of the county that pays over 96% of the taxes. Tax cuts should be for the people that pay taxes… Saying that a tax cut should be for those who most need it or would benefit from it is ok… but ANY tax cut, as already shown, helps the economy and increases overall Tax Revenue. When 1% of the population pays 37% of the tax bill, that’s just wrong. Especially when that 1% earns only 20% of the total income. Give a tax cut to the people carrying the heaviest load. (These figures based on IRS Report for Tax Year 2000 available on the IRS website or also on Rush Limbaugh’s website).

That is all.

Please reply or email with questions or responses. Thanks.

- Dman


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
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1 posted on 01/06/2003 1:00:31 PM PST by Drewman626
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To: Drewman626
Saved for future homeschooling economics class!!!
thank you!
2 posted on 01/06/2003 1:04:18 PM PST by netmilsmom
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To: Drewman626
Here is another one. When was the last time a poor man gave you a job? If that same man got a $500 a year "tax cut", is he now going to employ you?
3 posted on 01/06/2003 1:05:17 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants
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To: Drewman626
All I can say is: "Would you mind repeating that?" ;-)
4 posted on 01/06/2003 1:05:24 PM PST by areafiftyone
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To: Drewman626
Thank you for taking the time. Great read.

Approximately 51% of ALL stock and security dividends are paid to Senior Citizens. This is mostly from retirement accounts and annuities.

I hope Bush will say this over and over to counter the attack that has already started from the left.

5 posted on 01/06/2003 1:06:20 PM PST by Quilla
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To: Drewman626
In all seriousness, thank you for taking the time to post this - very informative!
6 posted on 01/06/2003 1:07:50 PM PST by areafiftyone
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To: Drewman626
A minor correction, though I havn't seen the actual proposals (are they out?).

There is no history in tax legislation to pass tax free or tax preferred (ie capital gains or return of capital dividends) treatment of earnings through either annuities or retirement plans to the participants. I'd be very surprised if that was proposed. I suspect any preferred treatment of dividends would apply only to dividends received directly by the taxpayer.

7 posted on 01/06/2003 1:12:21 PM PST by SJackson
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To: Drewman626
Excellent information. Especially the statistics on who is paying the taxes and at what income levels. I never hear them say what "rich" is.
8 posted on 01/06/2003 1:13:31 PM PST by Bahbah
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To: Drewman626
Very nicely done.
9 posted on 01/06/2003 1:15:39 PM PST by BOBTHENAILER
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To: Drewman626
Nice post, I'm going to archive this for use in arguements with the union where I work.

Semper Fi
10 posted on 01/06/2003 1:17:49 PM PST by dd5339
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To: SJackson
Sj - Agreed. However, since the vast majority of dividends, currently that is... is reinvested in those qualified accounts, I can't see how ingoring them and giving non-qual's preferred treatment would be of significant benefit. However, not taxing directly received dividends would also be VERY good seeing as how the second most common option is to directly receive them... especially with the Senior Citizens. I guess we'll see tomorrow.
11 posted on 01/06/2003 1:25:04 PM PST by Drewman626
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To: Drewman626
What would you say to people that think the payroll taxes should be cut?
12 posted on 01/06/2003 1:29:07 PM PST by Karsus
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To: Blood of Tyrants
"Hate the rich, ask a poor man for a job"
13 posted on 01/06/2003 1:30:44 PM PST by litehaus
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To: Karsus
I'd say I agree.

The majority of Payroll Taxes is FICA. Your tax-rate is determined at the end of the year... and shored-up with your tax rebate check.

What you could do is claim more dependants. Go to your HR person and tell them that you want to change your number of Dependants.

Always claim yourself as 1. Claim Head-of-Household.. that's another 1. And there should be a MISC entry too (in most states) where you can enter up to 1. This will reduce your FICA, but it will also reduce your tax rebate check at the end of the year. It's up to you.
14 posted on 01/06/2003 1:33:22 PM PST by Drewman626
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To: Drewman626
Or we could just get rid of SS and let everyone invest the money in an IRA...
15 posted on 01/06/2003 1:36:41 PM PST by Karsus
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To: Drewman626
Thanks for the analysis - excellent work!

The big question I have is how the elimination of personal income taxes on dividends will be accounted for in IRAs and 401Ks. Will dividends paid up to the present into 401Ks and IRAs be taxed at the previous levels, or at the new levels? If it is at the previous levels, the bookkeeping will be horrendous for the funds. If at the new levels, the funds (and payments from them) will increase greatly in value. This will be a big WIN for investors and for Bush.

16 posted on 01/06/2003 1:38:21 PM PST by RandyRep
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To: Drewman626
one mistake I caught - dividends distributed to true retirement accounts are not subject to the second level of taxation; the reason why your 401K is still taxed at the end of the year is because they (all) have stupid money managers responsible for the accounts who must sell stocks when foolish people bail the market and because managers are always trying to fix their funds to look better than they actually performed (window dressing). This is a great proposal, however, and one which will truly split the DemoncRATs on their class warfare rhetoric, leaving only the truly stupid on their side and convincing Wall St. and Main St. that the DemoncRATs will not only sacrifice homeland security for their political interests, as they did last year, but also sacrifice America's economic security and prosperity in a vain attempt to try and prop up their failed party ideals.
17 posted on 01/06/2003 1:41:59 PM PST by Steven W.
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To: RandyRep
Two factors - 1st the dividends you receive (if currently taxed) will be subject to less taxes. 2nd the companies that pay dividends will be encouraged to increase the level of their payouts thus increasing the value of your investments. 3rd the increased levels of returns will (should) be re-invested in your accounts to increase the exponential returns that have traditionally been returned by investments in equities (vs people throwing their money away on stupid "pets.com" or "ezgov.com" type absurdities).
18 posted on 01/06/2003 1:44:11 PM PST by Steven W.
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To: Drewman626
It should also be added that "payroll tax holiday" is a DimWit code word. What they don't want their geezer constituents to figure out is that they're proposing social security payroll witholdings be dropped temporarily, i.e, less $$$ will be going into the SS "trust fund."

And this is from the same @ssholes who LOVE to scare the geezers by claiming optional partially (2%) privatized SS accounts will " "fundamentally destroy the financial soundness" of the SS trust fund!!!

The hypocrisy of these DNC Clymers on social security needs to be pointed out at every opportunity!!!

19 posted on 01/06/2003 1:47:49 PM PST by RooRoobird14
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To: RandyRep
The big question I have is how the elimination of personal income taxes on dividends will be accounted for in IRAs and 401Ks.

Income isn't currently taxed when received by tax deferred account. You pay taxes as regular income when you make withdrawls, regardless of how the earnings are generated.

20 posted on 01/06/2003 1:47:55 PM PST by SJackson
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