[mvpel]

The commodities market is not random, though, it is based on ... uh ... commodities that have a tangible and comprehensible relationship to the real world of agricultural and industrial production, unlike a bunch of ping-pong balls bouncing around inside a machine.

Further, depending on unexpected events in the market, commodities contracts can wind up worth far more than a 4:1 ratio.

[Aegedius]

Many observers, including me, believe that commodity trading is a crap shoot. And, even if it is not an absolutely pure crap shoot, it is close enough to make the computer model valid.

When you sell a commodity contract, someone has to buy it. The buyer has looked at all of the same information that you have, and has come to a conclusion opposite from yours. Likewise, if you buy June soybeans, someone has to sell it. If anyone knew the price of corn 6 months from now, then everyone would know, and there would be no one with whom to trade.

The average of Hillary's trades had a payout of less than 4 to 1, but if one reduces the payout odds to 3 to 1, the odds become astronomical. On the flip side, if you increase the model's payout to 100 to 1, then the odds come back to a mere 1 in 100.

[mc5cents]

Chapter 3 here has a good recount of "Cattlegate" and the odds involved.