When you sell a commodity contract, someone has to buy it. The buyer has looked at all of the same information that you have, and has come to a conclusion opposite from yours. Likewise, if you buy June soybeans, someone has to sell it. If anyone knew the price of corn 6 months from now, then everyone would know, and there would be no one with whom to trade.
The average of Hillary's trades had a payout of less than 4 to 1, but if one reduces the payout odds to 3 to 1, the odds become astronomical. On the flip side, if you increase the model's payout to 100 to 1, then the odds come back to a mere 1 in 100.
"When you sell a commodity contract, someone has to buy it. The buyer has looked at all of the same information that you have, and has come to a conclusion opposite from yours. Likewise, if you buy June soybeans, someone has to sell it. If anyone knew the price of corn 6 months from now, then everyone would know, and there would be no one with whom to trade."
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One major thing you are missing...is that some people/entities ( the Commercials..)....want/need the product itself...ie: bellies, wheat, oil, etc....
So, they are buying when others are selling.......they buy at the top and the bottom...and all points in between.
As for your ''crap shoot'' theory....I wholeheartedly disagree. Although it's a commonly held belief..it's incorrect. But that's another topic...for another time.
FRegards,