Taiwan: If China attacks, it'll be destroyed

Taipei Times | 01.01.03 | Chuck DeVore

[Enemy Of The State]

If China attacks, it'll be destroyed

By Chuck DeVore

Wednesday, Jan 01, 2003,Page 8 World events are presenting you with many options. The US is preparing to attack Iraq and still has considerable military and intelligence assets focused on Afghanistan and the war on terror.

North Korea is causing alarm while a new president has been elected in South Korea who seems more worried about US troops than Pyongyang's nuclear weapons.

India and Pakistan still appear close to conflict (and all those nuclear missiles you supplied to Pakistan may soon provide a rich payoff).

The US is busy and distracted with the "Axis of Evil" and the world is full of turmoil.

But, there are negative trends to consider as well. Your economy is filled with inconsistencies: you claim high growth, yet your consumption of energy appears to have declined and you have dangerously large amounts of bad debt.

The US has made serious military inroads to your west, undoing years of steady Chinese diplomacy in Central Asia.

Further, US military-to-military cooperation with Taiwan is increasing, as is the flow of arms to the "rebellious province."

But, you know that a successful military adventure would serve to unite the masses behind the Chinese Communist Party while burying concerns of corruption and economic malaise.

China's military has never been stronger and the US has never appeared weaker in the Pacific. China is a vibrant, growing power and Asia's natural hegemon, while you perceive the US as a declining power, too self-absorbed and accustomed to comfort to be a threat to a powerful and hungry nation such as China.

You think this a time for opportunity, for action, believing that the US could not answer an attack on Taiwan until it was too late. Clearly you are preparing for conflict. Your non-stop war games opposite Taiwan grow ever larger and more elaborate while at the same time making your opponents numb to their vast scale. You have even taken the extraordinary step this month of encouraging Chinese citizens to own gold -- a convertible form of money not easily subject to US economic pressure.

Because the US will be busy and distracted for several months, military action against Taiwan would achieve complete surprise -- no one in Washington, or even Taipei for that matter, expects it. You would enjoy initial success, landing hundreds of thousands of soldiers by sea and air before the US could react. You believe that Washington, presented with the inevitable, a mainland conquest of Taiwan backed up by the threat of nuclear war -- either by proxy through North Korea, or by a direct threat to Los Angeles (again) -- would back down. China would reign supreme in Asia with even Tokyo and Seoul kowtowing to Beijing.

But first, a caution from history: Japan had similar misperceptions about the US in 1941. Imperial Japan's leaders convinced themselves that one strong blow would cause the US to cower and ask for peace, giving Tokyo what Tokyo wanted: a free hand in Asia. As others have done, they mistook the US' love of peace for weakness.

But, what if the US did fight for Taiwan's freedom and democracy? How might that affect your plans for Taiwan?

America's considerable submarine fleet will be mostly available in the coming months, so the US would soon break your blockade of Taiwan while the Chinese fleet would be resting at the bottom of the ocean with scattered remnants confined to port. The US Air Force will be occupied with Iraq for the briefest of times and could soon be refocused on the Western Pacific, severing your air supply link to Taiwan. As your ability to supply your troops on Taiwan diminished, their ranks would melt away. Soon, even the masses in China would know of the disaster and the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) grip on power would evaporate.

Meanwhile, your attempts to use nuclear weapons to intimidate the US, Japan and South Korea would likely fail -- at least in the US, and that's what really counts. If you learned only one thing about the American people after Sept. 11 it should be this: they aren't much impressed by threats from thugs.

The US might pay a terrible price to preserve democracy on Taiwan -- but the price paid by the CCP would be even higher: complete annihilation.

Yes, the US is busy and distracted, but you may want to reconsider.

Chuck DeVore served in the Reagan-era Pentagon as a special assistant for foreign affairs and is the co-author of China Attacks.

[Southack]

Geographicly, China has Taiwan on one side of its world and Kashmir on the other.

Demographically, China has about as many people as India and Taiwan.

Militarily, China failed to crush Chang Ki Shek's forces (circa 1946), failed to hold all of their territorial gains against India in Kashmir (circa 1962), and were humiliated in a crushing defeat by the Vietnamese Army in its last land war in 1979.

If China moves enough forces into its Western provices in order to make a credible assault on Taiwan, then India will walk all over whatever is left of China's forces guarding the Chinese-occupied portion of Kashmir (read: India's original soveriegn territory) on the OPPOSITE side of China's world in the East.

India and China have comparable nuclear forces and air forces, though India has the better navy by far. China's air force is clearly inferior to the Taiwanese air force, as Chinese F-7's are no match for the American F-16's that Taiwan flies.

Thus, China is in a poor position for acquiring territory. Strike West and they lose in the East, and there is no guarantee even that their 2nd-rate air force would provide the kind of air cover required for the amphibious landing of troops across the 50 miles of ocean in the Taiwan Strait.

Moreover, Taiwan is nuclear armed. It was Taiwan that joined with Israel and South Africa to field their first atomic weapons (including a Southern Hemisphere atomic test that made the civilian newspapers).

In the meantime, Islamic radicals continue to cause havoc in China's Western provinces, China's banks are on the verge of being insolvent, China's energy consumption has decreased (an ominous counter-indication to their claimed economic "growth"), and other such problems (including their current internal power struggle) present a depressing list of options and choices for their future.

[ModelBreaker]

Better now than later...

As to China, better later. We are bringing our THAAD missle defense on line over the next 5-7 years. It will provide defense against theater ballistic missles.

Today, our carriers are vulnerable to ballistic missles--especially missles bearing nukes. In 5-7 years they will be very, very hard to attack with ballistic missles.

China has about a 5-7 year window to take advantage of the huge investment it has made in theater nukes. After that, they are obsolete vis-a-vis the US.

That's why better later. But that's also why it will likely happen soon. China gets to pick timing and the Iraq invasion seems like an awfully good time.

[oldtimer]

Good reply, and while we are on the subject of North Korea, the chicoms, etc., am thrilled that we have adults in charge of a nuclear defense system.

[Screaming_Gerbil]

Well, on one hand, examples are given that China is doing quite well in its current relatonship with the West and have no reason to go to war to get what they desire. On the other hand, examples are given that they are in various forms of trouble with their growth stalling and populace getting uppity and that they can't afford to wait...

Uh, let me ask this question: How are the political and military elites (you know, the ones that would give their support or issue the orders that would make a war happen) leaning?

[Eaker]

Bump for Later

[UnChained]

As far as I can tell, China's attack is already underway.

It is so gradual that is doesn't register with most people. The target of the attack is the USA. Once the US is conquered, they can take back Taiwan at their leisure.

In WW2 it was our massive manufacturing capacity that won that war. The amount of weaponry we could bring to bear overwhelmed our enemies. Today our manufacturing capability is gradually being replaced by China's.

China's industrial capacity is HUGE.

If they they managed to pit their resouces against ours in some conflict somewhere, they could deplete our forces handily. If they also gradually expanded their North American beachheads, they could one day launch a conventional attack that we couldn't stop without nuking our own country.

China DOES intend to one day attack the US. Perhaps Taiwan is where they will try to get is to throw our conventional forces against theirs.

But with HRC as Commander in Chief, we might just pre-emptively surrender before the attack comes.

[maui_hawaii]

The US should kick Chinese ass all over the place if China decides to attack. I don't think there is any question about it.

I don't know how anyone can make such a foolish comment as you made.

[maui_hawaii]

Much of the view of the businessmen from Taiwan have about China is not that China is their savior. They see it more as just part of the global economy and product supply line.

If the US leads the way into China to manufacture at dirt cheap rates, then hey, guess what...so does Taiwan.

Taiwanese businessmen are more worried about losing global share than they are entrenched in some ideological allegiance to the CCP.

Most of them are in China because they have to be.

[World-traveler]

Correct on all counts

[Centurion2000]

If Taiwan thinks we are going to start WWIII to defend them, they better guess again.

Guess you would have sat by and watched the Germans take Poland or perhaps France ?

China's last move as a Communist power will be to invade Taiwan by force. Taiwan has nukes and planes that can reach the Three Gorges Damn and Beijing. That should be enough to give the Chicoms pause but they won't.

[World-traveler]

China will not attack the US. If things stay the same, they won't have to. We are committing national suicide with NAFTA and open borders. What is now manufactured in the US? Practically NOTHING!!

[KneelBeforeZod]

The chinese can roll right in through Tamshui, past the old Dutch fort. lets not forget how Evergreen got so big... Kaoshung is the 3rd biggest port in the world.

By the way, the chinese don't need clinton, they have Boeing to send them technology.

[John H K]

Because the US will be busy and distracted for several months, military action against Taiwan would achieve complete surprise -- no one in Washington, or even Taipei for that matter, expects it. You would enjoy initial success, landing hundreds of thousands of soldiers by sea and air before the US could react.

Preparations for landing "hundreds of thousands of soldiers by sea" would take months, possibly the better part of a year, and would be so obvious they would be noticeable with the better French and Russian commericial satellites, much less American spy satellites. They cannot be hidden.

Thus, it is a physical impossibility for such an attack to be a surprise.

Also, the Chinese can't land hundreds of thousands of soldiers by sea..even the US can't do that now, and we have more amphibious assault capability and experience than the entire rest of the world put together.

The ridiculous overrating of the Chinese military and their recent and planned improvements is probably one of the greatest myths of Free Republic; it's perpetrated and continued by a lot of armchair pseudo-Clancys without much of a real concept of things military.

I submit that PRC armed forces are now even more overrated than the Iraqis in the Fall before the 1991 Gulf War; at least the Iraqis had just fought an 8 year war; the Chinese have one of the LEAST experienced militaries on the face of the earth.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

I agree with your analysis. There's no way the Chicoms could pull it off with an amphibious or airborne invasion. If the situation in the PRC continues to deteriorate, you might see them rattling their nukes to try and blackmail Taiwan, which would fail. Unless of course, there's a RAT in the White House. Then all bets are off.

[Enemy Of The State]

Agreed. An amphibious invasion from the Mainland would have to consist of the Billion man swim.

[RaceBannon]

Plus, they face the very real risk of being badly humiliated by a very tiny opponent. The Chinese Army made it all of 20 miles into Vietnam in '79 before being torn to shreds and sent packing. Many of the chronic weaknesses that were present then are present now.

China pulled back from Vietnam because it was not in their political interest to fight NVA then.

Remember, China handed us our hat in 52 with only sneaker clad soldiers by outnumbering us 5 or 6 to one against a disorganized and poorly led US Army force north of the 38th.

You and others are right, they still have to get their people there to fight. If there are enough speedy ferry type craft to make a sudden dash, something like two or 3 cruise ships filled with 'tourists' on their way, with whatever small amount of genuine Naval Craft that set sail at 6PM until dawn on the Taiwan shores, these 'cruise ships' could be carrying 15 thousand people, enough to sieze a flatland large enough to make an expeditionary air strip.

Still greatly outnumbered and no way home, THEN would China be stuck and on verge of defeat It would take 3 days to get a ship there from the US Navy that would respond to any landing in force if done in secret similar to what I propose, unless there are some Fast-Attacks there already, and they STILL would not know what is going on until the invasion began and all Chinese ships were in Taiwan territorial water. No Shoot to Kill order would be made until any invasion began anyways, and I do not think the Chinese would annouce their intentions to invade, that would be inviting us to send protection, and their success would depend on the US not being there the first 72 hours.

[itsahoot]

Better to fight on our terms than others.</>

Whose terms? Rumsfield or Powel, looks like Rumy is in the minority now, and we have peace breaking out all over. I wish Bush would decide who is really in charge.

[itsahoot]

I have a hard time believing that China will prosecute a war against Taiwan.

Maybe they will move all those new missle batteries and airfields they have recently built accross the straight, and just maybe they will quit test firing those missles accross the bow of Tiawan.

[Sparta]

The Chinese have the numbers advantage though. If the Chinese land and establish a beachhead, it's over once the ChiComs pour reenforcements to support the invasion force. But, I think the ChiComs don't want Taiwan(lack of resources). Their target is Siberia, Indochina, or India.(Resources)