Why any war with Iraq will be over in a flash

www.timesonline.co.uk ^ | December 24, 2002 | Michael Evans

[Tailgunner Joe]

THE planned war against Iraq is intended to be one of the fastest operations yet conducted, possibly using secret new weapons to overcome Iraqi resistance and topple Saddam Hussein.

The creation of satellite-guided missiles has extended America’s superiority over Iraq by such a large margin that the first night of air attacks could see hundreds of targets destroyed or damaged.

But America’s new technological trump card is the microwave bomb, which is capable of knocking out Baghdad’s electricity supplies without damaging a single building.

An early version of this concept was tested by the Americans in the 1999 air campaign over Yugoslavia when cluster bombs containing carbon fibre filaments were dropped on electricity supply lines in Belgrade and other cities, causing massive short-circuits.

If it is deployed, the latest “directed energy weapon” would involve bathing areas of Baghdad in waves of high-frequency electromagnetic pulses, crippling computers and power supplies linking the Iraqi capital to the country’s air defences.

However, Rob Hewson, Editor of Jane’s Air-Launched Weapons, said: “The Americans are being deliberately vague about these directed energy weapons.

“They have reached an advanced stage in development and have been tested. Basically, a microwave weapon would fry the electrics, but it would be indiscriminate, not just turning off electricity for Iraq’s radar stations, but also affecting power to hospitals and schools.

“Will the Americans risk using such a weapon?” It will also be a laptop war. One of the key lessons learnt from Afghanistan, which will be put to good use in Iraq, was the ability of special forces, armed with backpack, satellite-connected laptops, to communicate by data-link with every type of aircraft.

The covert soldiers were able to use a marker pen on their laptop screens to pinpoint moving targets, guiding bombs to within a few feet of the enemy, if not a direct hit.

Twelve years ago, it was the F117 Stealth fighter and Tomahawk cruise missile which dominated the battlefield.

This time, if war becomes necessary, it will be the satellite-linked Joint Direct Attack Munition (Jdam), the B2 Stealth Bomber, and unmanned spy drones watching every move on the ground which will play the big roles in determining Saddam’s fate.

The whole thrust of the new campaign against Saddam would be based on high-tech, high-speed, and ultra highimpact.

The Jdam is just a tail-kit attached to a “dumb” bomb, converting it into one of the smartest weapon systems around.

The kits, each costing “just” £16,500 – extraordinarily cheap in a superpower’s warfighting inventory – link the 1,000lb or 2,000lb bomb to the satellite Global Positioning System (GPS) network, guaranteeing greater accuracy than ever before.

In a space shuttle mission in 2000, sponsored by the Pentagon’s National Imagery and Mapping Agency, special radars collected topographic data for about 80 per cent of the globe, minutely plotting the undulations of the Earth’s surface. With this information, the Jdam bomb will be capable of landing within a few yards of its target.

Another new weapon will be crucial in destroying targets on the move, such as Iraqi tanks and artillery.

The Joint Standoff Weapon (Jsow) is known as a “launch-and-leave” system, fired from an aircraft at a range of about 40 miles and at high altitude.

The missile receives in-flight target updates from a US Air Force-converted Boeing 707-300, known as an E8C Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint Stars) aircraft.

The Jsow is currently fitted to B2s, B52s, F16s and the carrier-based FA18s.

Four other post-1991 Gulf War weapon systems will also have a big impact on Iraq because they played a noticeably significant role in the campaign over Afghanistan. They are:

- The B2 Stealth bomber, to be based at Diego Garcia, the British-owned Indian Ocean island, and possibly at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire.

It is estimated that on the first night of air attacks on Iraq, 16 B2s, armed with Jdams, would be able to hit more than 200 targets. This would have taken several weeks in the 1991 war.

- The Predator unmanned spy drone, armed with Hellfire missiles. This system is not invulnerable, but it transformed the battlefield in Afghanistan by providing accurate information of al-Qaeda and Taleban movements there.

A Hellfire fired by a Predator using remote control killed leading al-Qaeda figures travelling in a vehicle in Yemen last month.

- Thermobaric bombs, which are fuel-rich explosives that suck air out of a confined space, creating a lethal combination of heat and pressure.

They were used for the first time in Afghanistan against Osama bin Laden’s suspected cave hideouts. The special warheads were integrated into laser-guided missiles launched by F15s.

The explosives, which burn for longer than conventional explosives, would be particularly effective at incinerating chemical and biological agents.

The US Marines are getting shoulder-mounted thermobaric weapons which, if ready in time for a war with Iraq, could have devastating potential in streetfighting in Baghdad.

- The FA18E/F Super Hornet, which is about 25 per cent larger than its predecessor. It also has a greater range and more armaments. The first operational Super Hornets were put on board the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.

With such an array of firepower, the US will inevitably dwarf anything Britain will be able to contribute.

The Royal Navy has landattack Tomahawk cruise missiles, but relatively few. The RAF is also waiting for its first delivery of a new air-launched cruise missile called Storm Shadow. It’s behind schedule and may not be ready in time.

However, even if production is rushed through, Mr Hewson of Jane’s said that the RAF was hardly likely to fire too many of them; they each cost about £500,000.

“That’s like launching a three-bedroom house in London at an Iraqi target,” he said.

[EggsAckley]

Maybe it's just me, but this sure seems to fit into the "loose lips" category. A bit too much information, IMO.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[E. Pluribus Unum]

An early version of this concept was tested by the Americans in the 1999 air campaign over Yugoslavia when cluster bombs containing carbon fibre filaments were dropped on electricity supply lines in Belgrade and other cities, causing massive short-circuits.

Sounds like the old "armful of metal clotheshangers thrown from a railroad tressle onto high-tension wires below" trick.

[JmyBryan]

Blitzkrieg 2003

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

I wonder if the real reason the Democrats oppose the war is because they know we will win it so decisively, with so few talking points (innocents killed, high casualties on our side, etc.), that it will sweep President Bush back into office in 2004. Liberating Iraq is a major thing to list on one's résumé.

[dead]

it would be indiscriminate, not just turning off electricity for Iraq’s radar stations, but also affecting power to hospitals and schools.

“Will the Americans risk using such a weapon?”

What risk?

I doubt that Iraqi hospitals have much high tech equipment that would be affected by a loss of power. And if they do have such machines, they will undoubtedly be used exclusively for high-ranking friends and supporters of the regime. Joe "SixPacki" Iraqi ain’t benefitting.

And any kids in an Iraqi school could only get smarter by being dismissed. I’m sure they can find the door without lights.

[LibWhacker]

The US Marines are getting shoulder-mounted thermobaric weapons which, if ready in time for a war with Iraq, could have devastating potential in streetfighting in Baghdad.

Wow, shoulder-launched Big BLUs! That's amazing. Those guys must be lifting weights.

[YoungKentuckyConservative]

Maybe it's just me, but this sure seems to fit into the "loose lips" category. A bit too much information, IMO.

Usually that means this is "old technology" the military is willing to expose as "new" technology. You have to feed the fish something if you want them to keep supporting your efforts.

[2timothy3.16]

On one of the Christian sites today there is a post by a pastor that makes reference to the book Exodus. After reading his remarks, I pulled the book down and started going through it again. When one thinks of what a hundred thousand Jews did to 5 million arabs back in 1947/48, it isn't hard to imagine us being in and out in a week.

[2timothy3.16]

And any kids in an Iraqi school could only get smarter by being dismissed

You mean "And any kids in an Iraqi school could only get smarter by being dismantled."

[af_vet_rr]

I wonder if the real reason the Democrats oppose the war is because they know we will win it so decisively, with so few talking points (innocents killed, high casualties on our side, etc.), that it will sweep President Bush back into office in 2004.

I believe your right, however I worry that if we do get bogged down a bit, or get into street/house fighting, we'll take casualties. When you think about how many people freak out or get upset everytime an American is wounded or killed in Afghanistan and multiply it.....

The worst thing about Iraq, the left will play up that it's about oil, when it's not. If they can parade wounded and dead American boys and girls across the TV screens every night and tie it to oil somehow, Bush will not be elected again. It is not beneath them to use dead soldiers to their benefit.

[Dan Day]

The Joint Standoff Weapon (Jsow) is known as a “launch-and-leave” system, fired from an aircraft at a range of about 40 miles and at high altitude.

There's a jaw-dropping depiction of the use of JSOW's in Tom Clancy's book, "The Bear and the Dragon". I'm not sure how acccurate the portrayal is (knowing Clancy, it's probably pretty good), but if the real weapons can perform anywhere near as well as the description in the book, the Iraqis are in for a rude awakening.

Imagine a short-range (if you can call 40 miles "short") cruise missile full of armor-piercing cluster bombs. What's unique about this is that *each* cluster bomblet has its *own* independent guidance system which it can use to autonomously spot a useful target and home in on it. *One* JSOW can conceivably take out a *dozen* or more tanks.

[Goatroper]

I like the J-SOW. When the muslims see that big old sow bomb coming (flying pig)they will pack it in.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Looks like a great weapon!

[Physicist]

“They have reached an advanced stage in development and have been tested. Basically, a microwave weapon would fry the electrics, but it would be indiscriminate, not just turning off electricity for Iraq’s radar stations, but also affecting power to hospitals and schools.

Sounds perfect for North Korea. Their hospitals and schools don't have electricity. Anything with power is something they can't afford to lose.

[wretchard]

Topography and distances will influence the pace of events. A glance at the map will show that Baghdad is principally defended in the south by the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, as well as its network of tributary streams that spread like dense net to the Gulf, and net which becomes a swamp with the melting of the winter snows in March and April. It is behind these barriers that the Iraqi army is expected to make a stand. Iraq's northern border is anchored on a ridgeline on the lower slopes of mountains which mark its frontier with Turkey. The path to Baghdad from the north involves descending onto the plain bounded by the headwaters of the Tigris to the west and the mountainous Iranian border to the east. Here the tributary network is less dense; but the final approach to the capital is barred by a final ridge just north of Tikrit.

The US Order of Battle has been carefully concealed. But Global Security reports equipment for 11 mechanized or armored brigades in the Kuwait vicinity, with 5 more afloat in Diego Garcia. To the north, which is Turkey and Kurdistan, nothing is reported but Air Force and Special Forces. Reports suggest that 4 naval and 5 air force wings are deploying.

There are two obvious tasks facing the US. One is to instantly paralyze the Iraqi WMD assets, especially those which may be fired from Scuds, both at Kuwait and Israel, as well as to take possession of any arms which may fall into Al-Qaeda hands. The second is to force a route to Baghdad.

It probable that the decisive missions have been assigned to the light forces: the Rangers, Airborne/Airmobile and Special Forces, who may be expected to seize key installations, swarm over the western desert and capture river crossings. The heavy forces based in Kuwait and the Gulf States can be expected to advance parallel to the Euphrates/Tigris river barrier until they can turn east for their final run to Baghdad. How far north they will go before making their final turn must be one of the most closely guarded planning secrets.

Here the time and distance calculations pose a conundrum. The light forces must achieve their essential objectives in less than 48 hours; but the heavy forces cannot complete the 300 mile approach to the Baghdad through the river barriers in much less than 96 hours. There will be a 48 hour gap in which the light forces and the naval and air forces will be all alone.

Commentators have spoken of the coming campaign as a "piece of cake". It will be baked, but hard in the baking. It will be won; but it will be won by men with greater wit and valor than I.

[Timesink]

I wonder if the real reason the Democrats oppose the war is because they know we will win it so decisively, with so few talking points (innocents killed, high casualties on our side, etc.), that it will sweep President Bush back into office in 2004. Liberating Iraq is a major thing to list on one's résumé.

I wouldn't get my hopes up about this. Remember, Bush 41 had such a great success with his Iraq war (at precisely the same midterm point in his presidency) that his popularity was over 90%. And in November 2002 he lost.

Bush 43 will win a second term, barring any massive screwups, but one such screwup would be for them to think merely winning Iraq will allowing them to coast for the next 18 months+.

[agincourt1415]

How does the song go "In a New York Minute"

[xzins]

they forgot ground surveillance mobile robotics

urban warfare will never be the same

the buildings can be cased by non-human robots