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Persistent Drop in Fertility Reshapes Europe's Future [The Death of the West]
NY Times ^ | 12/26 | FRANK BRUNI

Posted on 12/26/2002 6:50:59 AM PST by twas

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As long as the "solution" to falling birth rates in western countries is increasing immigration, there appears to be little hope for survival.

Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we will be overrun.

1 posted on 12/26/2002 6:50:59 AM PST by twas
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To: twas
Many Italian men, she said, live with their mothers into their 30's. When they marry, they are not prepared to help out at home in ways that take pressure off women, especially if those women want to have children.

It is hard to imagine that a long time ago, these people's ancestors ruled the world for hundreds and hundreds of years. The best hope for Italy is:

1. A Catholic revival
2. Make it easy for people of Italian decent to move back
3. End the socialist gravy train

2 posted on 12/26/2002 6:56:17 AM PST by 2banana
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To: 2banana
End the socialist gravy train

This won't initially do anything to solve the problem because the people who will be hardest hit are the elderly who will (A) be unable to do anything about the birth rate and (B) will not have the children to take care of them. The absence of a welfare state to catch you when you are elderly, however, may get enough people to realize that children can be useful to them later in life.

3 posted on 12/26/2002 7:08:19 AM PST by Question_Assumptions
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To: twas

But the trend hit Western Europe earlier, and has had more time to produce hand-wringing and soul-searching. Apart from welcoming more immigrants, "no one knows precisely what to do".

If I may be so bold….I know what to do……women have babies, that is the answer. Nothing new about this, it is called procreation. Governments have to reduce the tax load on families, by granting greater tax relief for married men with families….

4 posted on 12/26/2002 7:16:20 AM PST by thinking
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To: twas
bump
5 posted on 12/26/2002 7:22:07 AM PST by Cacique
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To: twas
and the birth rate for islam countries is 8.5....muslims to conquer world through numbers...
6 posted on 12/26/2002 7:25:37 AM PST by Bill Davis FR
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To: thinking
women have babies, that is the answer

What a drastic notion :-)!

I feel so sorry for these people ... the elderly with no grandchildren, the parents with nothing in their hearts but cellphones and cars, the children with no siblings, spending their lives in daycare centers ...

They are so blind. We are celebrating Christmas with six children under twelve ... all the ones who can talk are saying, "Can we have a new baby next Christmas? That was so much fun last year!" Sure it's a lot of work, but what else were you going to do with your life that's worth anything?

I guess I can plan a "Great Mosques of Europe" tour, someday when the kids are grown ...

7 posted on 12/26/2002 7:39:06 AM PST by Tax-chick
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To: twas
I have a question that I bet no one can answer: since Europe is losing its population (and I read the same thing is happening in Japan), US would be losing population except for immigration, and Africa and Asia have millions of AIDS cases with more on the way,
****WHERE THE HECK IS THE OVER-POPULATION everyone always bleats about?? That's one of the reasons liberals trot out for abortion, and a host of other stuff. I've been wondering about this for a long time....?
8 posted on 12/26/2002 8:11:00 AM PST by First Amendment
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To: twas
Bump
9 posted on 12/26/2002 8:14:20 AM PST by Fiddlstix
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To: thinking
Thinking, you are right on. The earlier poster implied what you said but you hit the nail on the head. What is also necessary is to have some sort of political or social upheaval in Italy to make Italians remember what life is all about and help them rediscover their faith -- not just increased church attendance, but their faith.
10 posted on 12/26/2002 8:29:52 AM PST by tom h
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To: twas
One could write a whole book about this article...but I'll just make a few short points:

1) What is it that these childless people are counting on to care for them in their old age? It is the govt, and indirectly, the taxpayers. What if the govt goes bankrupt? What if there are no longer enough taxpayers to finance them in anything like the style to which they've become accustomed? In reality, these people are each making a calculation that they can squander their lives on themselves and materialistic pursuits, and that they can throw the responisibilities of caring for them in their old age off onto society and onto those people (whom they probably view as "suckers") who take the time and effort in their lives to raise children.

2) Notice how these discussions are always draped in the ideology of liberalism. As if everything would be fine in a world without children if we could only find some other way to finance our welfare state.

3) I'm afraid that it will take a severe economic crisis (which many of these old, childless people probably will not survive.....life is tough on the street at 80 with no kids and no socialism) accompanied by a resurrection of traditional western values to turn this thing around. Western people are too steeped in this culture of narcissism and materialism to be extracted in any other way but by cold, ugly reality. Excepting this, we will be displaced by other cultures who harbor values more conducive to survival and procreation.

4) I was at a Christmas party yesterday with 6 other couples aged 35-45....all highly educated professionals. Other than my two kids, one couple had one child and the other 4 couples had none. Twelve adults and only three kids....not a good sign for the future.

11 posted on 12/26/2002 8:34:27 AM PST by quebecois
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To: Tax-chick
Tax-chick, you sound like one wonderful mom. I posted something several months ago that I am reposting below because while my wife and I have are members of the "big-family club" in America (3 children), I have witnessed the effects of post-modernism on the rest of my family. What this country needs are more families like yours and a Christian revival that teaches Americans what life is really about.

Jim Dobson reported this morning that since the promulgation of Roe v. Wade 29 years ago, there have been approximately 100 million American children born and 41 million American children aborted. 28% of the Roe v Wade generation will never know life on this planet.

We all ought to be ashamed of this tragedy. I count seven abortions in my own family:

- My mother had one a couple months before she was married in 1953;

- My youngest sister (age 41, currently married, childless, and infertile) had one at age 16 during an "oops" with a boyfriend

- My older sister (age 47, never married, Hollywood mentality) has had four -- like Russian women, she uses them as a birth control technique

- My father's second wife had one, because she got pregnant before they were married.

My wife and I are dedicated Christians and have three lovely children. They are the only grandchildren my parents have.

Do any of you ever read the obituaries? Do it and see how many elderly that pass away have large numbers of grandchildren -- maybe 1 in 4. It seems like a shame that an 85-year old woman will die with 3 or 4 grown children and one grandchild. The rest were aborted, or the children were too self-centered to marry or perturb their selfish lives with the distractions of children.

Isn't the legacy of the left, and the death culture, grand?

12 posted on 12/26/2002 8:37:19 AM PST by tom h
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To: quebecois
Twelve adults and only three kids....not a good sign for the future.

Demography is history. At last year's Eastern Oklahoma Catholic Homeschool Association Valentine's Day party, I counted 74 children ... but they weren't holding still, so I probably missed some. Sometimes I miscount my own kids ...

As if everything would be fine in a world without children if we could only find some other way to finance our welfare state.

Europe thinks they've found it ... import a few million Moslems a year. Is there a mathematically gifted FReeper running a pool on how long it takes before all the governments of Europe are Moslem?

People just don't understand what they're missing. Parents deprive themselves of babies, and then complain that they don't find any fulfillment in their families. (IMO, babies are the reward for moms; Cub Scouts are the reward for dads!) They deprive their children of siblings, and then insist that the children need government-supported "socialization."

If people don't give love, they're not going to receive any ... unless we get the Revival first, or a full-scale jihad (alternate plots in my future-history novel ...) the Social Security Revolution is going to hit a lot of baby boomers right where they live.

13 posted on 12/26/2002 9:00:21 AM PST by Tax-chick
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To: twas; Admin Moderator
"In no West European country did the rate reach 2.1 — the marker that, demographers say, means an exact replenishment of the population. By contrast, the United States had a 2.0 rate, which demographers attribute to *greater immigration*."

Those Hispanics may save us yet...

P.S., Moderator, I think we can only publish excerpts of NYT articles...I know WaPO articles need to be redacted. FYI, thanks

14 posted on 12/26/2002 9:11:37 AM PST by HumanaeVitae
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To: twas
It's the BIRTH rate, not the Fertility rate. They are fertile, just not using it. I have a friend who lost her only 9 year old son to a bicycle accident, and her husband has had a vasectomy...they have a remaining daughter. Two is not enough. Her husband outsmarted himself, and the boy's grandfather gave away his Marine Corps sword.
15 posted on 12/26/2002 9:17:29 AM PST by PoorMuttly
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To: twas
No children?! Who will pay our debts?!!! Who will maintain our temples and palaces?!! The leech has two daughters, "Give! Give! they cry!"

Proverbs: When the wicked rise to power, people go into hiding; but when the wicked perish, the righteous thrive. He who oppresses the poor to increase his wealth and he who gives gifts to the rich-both come to poverty. A large population is a kings glory, but without subjects a prince is ruined.

16 posted on 12/26/2002 9:27:05 AM PST by Life of Brian
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To: HumanaeVitae
Osama bin laden has 4 wives and 40 children. The last wife being around 14 years old. You think the west will keep up with these curs?
17 posted on 12/26/2002 9:33:09 AM PST by oldironsides
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To: twas
With modern times in the west, comes the need for both parents to work full-time. I believe it's mostly economic. Governments giving incentives isn't the answer because with these incentives, comes increased taxes, forcing both parents to go to work. Unless the western world wants to go backwards, and become more like the third world countries, this is the way it is.
18 posted on 12/26/2002 9:37:56 AM PST by stuartcr
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To: pram
If you look at the sidebar in the New York Times article, you'll have your answer: Niger, Yemen, Somalia, Uganda, Mali, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Liberia, Burkin Faso, and Burundi are the top 10, with average births per woman ranging from 8 to about 6.4. AIDS hasn't even begun to make a dent in this explosive population growth rate, and what's more, since they begin reproducing at very early ages, the growth rate is even higher than it looks, due to tightly packed generations all living at the same time.

See this link http://www.worldpress.org/profiles/niger.cfm?startat2=5 for the ugly details on Niger, including: 48% of the population is aged 0-14, 13.6% of population over age 15 is literate (so there's little chance of any significant number of those 0-14 year olds ever learning to read, since there are almost no adults who know how to teach them), only 1.35% of population has AIDS.

Overpopulation is a localized problem more than a global problem, but it's very serious in the areas where it's a problem, creating breeding grounds for brands of violent extremism which can appeal only to ignorant and desperate people, but which can so easily spread terror and cultural/political destruction into other parts of the world.
19 posted on 12/26/2002 9:40:27 AM PST by GovernmentShrinker
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To: stuartcr
With modern times in the west, comes the need for both parents to work full-time. I believe it's mostly economic.

"Modern times in the west" had better figure out a way for people to have enough kids to bring the birth rate above 2.1 or so, or it's headed for extinction. That's simple mathematical reality.

Of course, long before that takes place, some more fecund folks will move in and turn the few remaining "modern westerners" into dhimmified slaves in their 9th Century Muslim paradise.

20 posted on 12/26/2002 9:43:16 AM PST by Campion
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