Doesn't Communist Cuba depend 100% on imports of free Venezeulan oil? How long until Fidel can't fly his fighters or pilot his boats??
Posted on 12/16/2002 11:34:52 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's plan to import gasoline and other refined products to offset a shortage as a nationwide strike enters its third week has many flaws and simply won't work, industry observers and analysts said Monday.
The financial and logistical risks of importing refined product in a country almost entirely equipped for exports while ports and shipping crews are almost all on strike are just too high, they say.
"I can't think of a single shipping company in the world that is prepared to take care of a tanker and have it unloaded in a port that is declared unsafe," said Jose Toro Hardy, a former director at state-owned oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela SA and now a private oil consultant.
Currently, only one small refinery is producing, but running at a meager rate of 80,000 barrels a day. Venezuela needs around 400,000 barrels a day to satisfy its domestic needs.
The overwhelming majority of workers at ports in Venezuela have joined the strike, making any export shipments or unloading procedures a risky operation. Only a few ports are equipped to unload tankers for domestic supply. "But the overall system is set up for exporting and not importing," says William Edwards, president of the Texas-based Edwards Energy Consultants.
Shipping agencies will also have difficulties securing credit and have their shipments insured for a Venezuelan destination, analysts say.
Sourcing products for import is yet another question, Edwards said. "It is possible that the country can get some products out of its Caribbean outlets," he said. And any imports will be very limited, he added: "I think only 10 percent of its daily domestic needs, really insignificant."
Venezuela's oil production has thinned to a trickle against just under 3 million barrels a day before the strike began Dec. 2.
Analysts don't view Chavez's threats to bring foreign crews and use the military - which lacks the required technical skills - to restart domestic oil operations as very realistic, either, given the sheer magnitude of the task. The vast majority of PdVSA's 40,000 workers are on strike, as are oil workers in associated or supporting sectors crucial to Venezuela's oil industry as a whole.
The stakes for the government are high as sustained gasoline shortages could trigger riots. Toro Hardy estimated that Caracas still has gasoline supply for four to five days.
"To safeguard the company's assets, Sidor has begun halting operations," the company said. Despite government claims to the contrary, sources have confirmed that the Anaco gas facility, which serves the Guayana heavy industrial area that Sidor is in, has cut production to less than half its capacity in adherence to a nationwide strike now in its 15th day. The Guayana industrial region was also reportedly affected by a tugboat and transportation ship strike that was preventing raw materials from arriving at, and finished products leaving from, facilities.
The problems add to a near shutdown at state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA as a result of the company's workers backing the strike opposition leaders launched Dec. 2 to force the government into accepting an immediate nonbinding referendum on Chavez's presidency. After three protesters were killed by gunmen at an opposition rally Dec. 6, strike leaders demanded Chavez resign immediately and call elections. Chavez has thus far maintained the constitution only requires him to accept the results of a possible recall referendum next August, the midpoint of his term. His representatives Monday agreed to "discuss" elections the opposition want by the first quarter of next year.
Chavez's critics blame his left-leaning policies for country's deepening economic crisis with a 6.4% contraction in the first nine months of this year, 17% unemployment, and 30% annualized inflation sparked by a nearly 50% devaluation of the bolivar ($1=VEB1294.50) earlier this year. The currency has strengthened a bit since then mostly due to central bank efforts. Chavez has blamed the problems on an "economic coup" led by his Opponents. [End]
Doesn't Communist Cuba depend 100% on imports of free Venezeulan oil? How long until Fidel can't fly his fighters or pilot his boats??
Tourist trade in Cuba is dependent on refuelling someplace. Canadian airliners might have to stop in Miami to top off the tanks.
But Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and survived a military coup in April, has repeatedly said the constitution only allows for a binding referendum on his mandate in August 2003. Administration spokesman Ari Fleischer told reporters that the United States backed a referendum for "the will of the people to be heard." But he did not specify a date.
"Everything we have called for is in the confines of the constitution of Venezuela. ... Early elections, in the sense that of course, there is a referenda that can be held earlier that is a reflection of the manifestation of the will of the people and this is the process that is anticipated in the Venezuelan constitution," Fleischer said. "The statement makes clear that it (the political crisis) should be resolved through political discourse and political dialogue, through the ballot box -- ballot boxes in Venezuela also include referenda." "We're not calling for the constitution to be amended," Fleischer added.
In April, when it looked like Chavez had been ousted, the White House appeared pleased that he had been toppled and was embarrassed when he was reinstated by loyalist officers. Despite Chavez's return, the country remains tense. Currently, opposition leaders, a loose alliance of political parties, unions and business leaders who blame Chavez for the nation's troubles, insist he resign and call elections. The opposition strike, which began on Dec. 2, has brought the oil industry to a standstill and sent Venezuelans rushing to stock up on food and gasoline. Banks are partly closed and many other businesses remain shuttered. The oil shutdown has cut off income to state coffers from petroleum exports, which account for about half of government revenues. Washington is worried about Venezuelan oil shipments since the strike has cut off some 14 percent of its energy imports at a time when it is considering a war against Iraq. [End]
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Chavez Blocking Vote on His Rule *** CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - During his campaign to dismantle a corrupt political system, Hugo Chavez's favorite tool was a popular referendum. Now, the president is infuriating opponents by snubbing a petition to hold a referendum on his rule. The drive for signatures gathered force at an eastern Caracas plaza that has been occupied for seven days by more than 100 dissident military officers and thousands of civilians demanding Chavez's ouster.
Opposition political parties say more than 1.2 million people, or 10 percent of registered voters, have signed - the number required by Venezuela's constitution to petition for a referendum on "matters of national importance." They plan to deliver the signatures next week, and want the vote held in December. Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel rebuffed the petition, insisting Monday "we can easily get 10, 15, 20 percent of the people to say that they are against the referendum."
Critics say that would be taking a page out the playbook of Chavez's good friend, Fidel Castro, who scorned a petitioning drive to hold a referendum for more civil liberties in Cuba earlier this year. Instead, Castro supported a counter-petition for a constitutional reform declaring the island's socialist system untouchable. Castro's government later claimed that 8.1 million of Cuba's 8.2 million eligible voters signed the "socialism forever" petition - a typically resounding return of 98.7 percent in favor. ***
Venezuela Election Body Agrees to Chavez Referendum *** CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's election authorities agreed early on Thursday to hold a nonbinding referendum in February demanded by the opposition on whether President Hugo Chavez should resign, an option dismissed by the populist leader who refuses to step down. The consultative vote, scheduled for Feb. 2, would not legally force Chavez from office. But his foes believe a decisive rejection would deliver a political defeat that could press the president into resigning and trigger elections in the world's fifth-largest oil exporter. Alfredo Avella, president of the National Electoral Council, said the institution that oversees elections and polls agreed to stage the popular referendum on the question of whether Chavez should resign immediately from office. ***
Venezuela Court Halts Vote on Chavez - Venezuelan President's Approval Below 30 Percent *** CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela's Supreme Court put the brakes on opposition efforts to force a non-binding referendum on President Hugo Chavez's presidency, quashing a decision hours earlier by the electoral council to conduct the vote. The back-to-back decisions on Thursday threw Venezuela into political turmoil. Foes and supporters of Chavez held rival demonstrations, with police keeping them apart. Opposition leaders threatened a general strike on Monday to press for the non-binding vote on whether the president should resign. police keeping them apart. Opposition leaders threatened a general strike on Monday to press for the non-binding vote on whether the president should resign. ***
Enraged Chavez backers tried to break an opposition push to paralyze Caracas as the metropolitan area of 11 million people spun toward lawlessness.
Soldiers with assault rifles lined up outside a dissident police station occupied by the army as opposition marchers headed toward them to demand they leave. An armored personnel carrier and a truckload of soldiers were seen rumbling into the outskirts of Caracas.
With oil-producing Venezuela in crisis, crude prices rose on international markets.
The White House again urged Chavez to call early elections, but seemed to modify its stance by stressing -- as Chavez has insisted -- that those elections should come only under the rules spelled out in Venezuela's constitution.
Chavez has rejected demands for his resignation and early elections, saying the constitution doesn't allow them until August, the midway point in his current six-year term. He has ignored courts that have ordered him to give back seized gasoline trucks and remove soldiers from Caracas police stations. He has told military commanders that he -- not the courts -- gives their orders.
``We can't let an opposition-aligned judge ... prevent a military unit from carrying out orders from the president,'' Chavez said Sunday.
Using the slogan ``Block your block,'' the frustrated opposition launched its ``takeover of Caracas'' after a two-week strike devastated the economy but only strengthened Chavez's resolve.
``Take your street! Take your avenue! Take your plaza! Take your neighborhood! Take Caracas!'' opposition leader Jesus Torrealba yelled to supporters over Union Radio.
Skirmishes between Chavez supporters and opponents erupted in several parts of Caracas and other cities as outnumbered police officers and national guard troops desperately tried to keep them apart.
``You can't throw rocks at police!'' one officer pleaded with residents of a central neighborhood.
Above him, opposition supporters leaned out of windows banging pots and pans in protest. Officers fired rubber bullets at the buildings, breaking windows and sending residents scurrying for cover. The sting of tear gas filled the air.
The opposition also blocked major highways and arteries in several spots. Protesters tried to choke off traffic with rocks, tree branches and flaming tires.
On the Prados del Este highway, opposition and government supporters, separated only by the highway median, skirmished with rocks and bottles. Police tried to separate them with tear gas and rubber bullets.
``We're not leaving,'' said Ana Reina, a 58-year-old retired teacher, one of about 1,000 opposition supporters on the highway. ``The police never come when there's a mugging or a robbery -- just when they want to coerce us. But we're not afraid.''
Across the median, Gisela Perez, a 42-year-old street vendor, said she wasn't leaving either. She and about 200 others were defending Chavez, whose 1998 election ended 40 years of alternation between two U.S.-aligned -- and corrupt -- political parties.
``If we waited 40 years, they can wait until August 2003 for a referendum,'' she said. ``If they try to get rid of our president like this, we're going to kill one another.''
Opposition supporters planned a major march late Monday to expand on a protest that drew more than 1 million people into the streets Saturday.
``The only thing we ask of you is to call elections now,'' opposition leader Carlos Ortega said in comments directed at Chavez. ``But you are not a democrat. You do not want elections. What you want is confrontation and violence.''
The opposition resents Chavez's alliances with countries such as Cuba, Iraq and Libya, his discourse of class conflict and his mishandling of the economy.
A similar opposition campaign in April ended in violence that killed 19 people and sparked a military coup that ousted Chavez for two days. His supporters rallied when a new government dissolved the constitution and he was restored to power.
The strike has halted Venezuela's formidable oil exports, which bring in 70 percent of the country's hard currency, and ravaged an economy already battered by mismanagement and low oil prices. With Venezuela in crisis, crude oil futures climbed $1.28 to $29.72 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Monday.
Chavez has tried to break the strike by seizing fleets of striking gasoline tanker trucks and sending new crews onto ships anchored in protest.
On Sunday, heavily armed troops helped a foreign crew board the Pilin Leon, a tanker anchored in western Lake Maracaibo that has become a symbol of the strike. But the ship remained motionless Monday, and state officials said they were awaiting the arrival of another captain.
He's lower than a snake's belly.
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