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California Schemin': Bush could win California in 2004.
Wall ST Journal ^ | November 19, 2002 | KEN KHACHIGIAN

Posted on 11/19/2002 3:58:51 AM PST by SJackson

Edited on 04/22/2004 11:47:32 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

SAN CLEMENTE, Calif. -- As the president savors this month's election results and the promise of moving his agenda in the capital, the gubernatorial vote in California offers tantalizing clues for his 2004 re-election campaign. The outcome on the coast -- despite a Democratic sweep -- offers great opportunity for George W. Bush to turn the Golden State into a "red" one.


(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: calgov2002
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1 posted on 11/19/2002 3:58:51 AM PST by SJackson
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To: SJackson
Good post. I wonder when the naysayers about Bushes latino strategy will start showing up and redefing a complete pubbie win that doesn't include latino votes.
2 posted on 11/19/2002 4:14:20 AM PST by Bob J
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To: Bob J
Gray Davis was effectively held to a few coastal counties. The Democrats have been shut out of the new Republican heartland which is EVERYTHING EAST of San Franciso and L.A counties.
3 posted on 11/19/2002 4:33:09 AM PST by goldstategop
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To: goldstategop; eureka!
I personally think Dubya needs to send his nephew, George P. Bush, out to Cali for the next two years to win over the female Latino vote. And with his looks he may win over San Francisco males as well. :-)
4 posted on 11/19/2002 6:54:09 AM PST by Coop
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To: Bob J
No problem with the Bushie strategy to capture legally registered Latinos.

The question we've got for CA is, "waddaya gonna do about vote fraud?" Analysts who studied Gore's "victory" in CA "suspected" upwards of 300,000 illegal votes. But, truthfully, they have no real idea , either.

The number of straight voters in the "red counties," which includes legally registered democrats, may not be able to overcome the vast numbers of illegally registered democrat voters in the coastal counties, particularly when turn-out is low.

The problem I have with all this is no one knows the size of the problem. Is the Bush strategy counting on a 75% Republican majority in the "red counties?" This just ain't adding up. Simon did a lot better than I thought he would, but we have no idea, none, of how many of the illegal registrations were used against him. I have the feeling (unsubstantiated) that with this low turn-out we saw, fraud in the "blue counties" may have played a significant part in his defeat.

That is one problem with fraudulent votes nationwide: we know they are out there, we have no idea how many. This is serious. Insofar as I know, no one has analyzed the "Motor Votor" registrations, which as far as I am concerned, would be a damn good place to start looking for fraud, especially multiple registrations and registered illegal aliens.

5 posted on 11/19/2002 7:05:45 AM PST by Kenny Bunk
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
fyi
6 posted on 11/19/2002 8:14:47 AM PST by Libertarianize the GOP
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To: SJackson
Along the way, Republicans picked up two assembly seats, one state senate seat, and trail by less than one vote per precinct in the state controller's race where absentee votes are still being counted.

To correlate, what I have been reading in other threads, this implies:

1. The Fresno GOP assembly seat up was going to court to resolve some ballot issue?
2. Denham won the Senate seat?
3. Did not McClintock concede to Westery? Does McClintock still hava a chance?

7 posted on 11/19/2002 1:46:45 PM PST by NEWwoman
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To: Libertarianize the GOP
Who is going to run against Boxer? I like either Cox or Rogan. Think about Doolittle vs Fienstien in '06
8 posted on 11/19/2002 2:01:42 PM PST by CPT Clay
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To: Bob J
Looks like Bush is always thinking long term. He is confident enough to let his opponents win today to pave the road for a future triumph. Davis may have been reelected, but he faces a staggering budget deficit.

Maybe Bush was thinking ahead to 2004, when California, with an unpopular Dem. governor, might be maneuvered into Bush's corner. The governorship can always be taken back in 2006. :)
9 posted on 11/19/2002 2:37:55 PM PST by adingdangdoo
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To: Bob J
I wonder when the naysayers about Bushes latino strategy will start showing up and redefing a complete pubbie win that doesn't include latino votes.

They usually show up immediately after someone comments on how swell it is that the GOP is now endeavoring to build constituencies based upon ethnicity, just like their democratic cousins.

10 posted on 11/19/2002 3:28:47 PM PST by skeeter
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To: Libertarianize the GOP; *calgov2002; Grampa Dave; Carry_Okie; SierraWasp; Gophack; RonDog; ...
Thanks, I seemed to have missed this earlier in the day!

calgov2002:

calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. 

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. 

Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register



11 posted on 11/19/2002 11:53:36 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: CPT Clay
Who is going to run against Boxer? I like either Cox or Rogan. Think about Doolittle vs Fienstien in '06

I really am interested in knowing more about the former mayor of San Diego, Rodger Hedgecock. He has a talk show in SD and does a great job of filling in for Rush.

12 posted on 11/20/2002 8:36:26 AM PST by tubebender
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To: SJackson
bookmark bump
13 posted on 11/20/2002 8:40:31 AM PST by Cacique
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To: NEWwoman
3. Did not McClintock concede to Westery? Does McClintock still hava a chance?

Well, a concession has no legal merit and, if by some miracle he pulled it off, the concession means nothing. However, from my understanding, Tom McClintock conceded because mathmatically, he wouldn't have won the remaining absontee ballots. According to dpwiener, he needed to win 62 percent of the rest of the ballots left to count, and thats is really unlikely (especially since, I believe the remaining ballots left to count include LA County which, even absontee ballots, might have a liberal lean unfortuently).

14 posted on 11/20/2002 10:56:35 AM PST by Simmy
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To: SJackson
While I will not say an R win in California in 2004 is impossible.... using the election of Governor this last round as an indicator of overall R v D trends in Cali is comical at best. The only reason the R did so strong in Cali was bacause Davis is SOOOOOO bad... and even as bad as he is, he managed to win. It would be nice to see the urban centers go R, but not holding my breath.
15 posted on 11/20/2002 11:00:30 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: Simmy
bummer!
Thanks for the analysis.
16 posted on 11/20/2002 11:12:22 AM PST by NEWwoman
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To: SJackson
We'll be ready. Go, GOP! We should continuously register new Republicans between now and then and TAKE BACK OUR STATE! Go, Bush! For victory & freedom!!!
17 posted on 11/20/2002 3:59:49 PM PST by Saundra Duffy
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To: goldstategop
Maybe it's time for the Great State of East California.
18 posted on 11/20/2002 4:17:21 PM PST by ScottinSacto
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To: adingdangdoo
10-4
19 posted on 11/20/2002 7:52:36 PM PST by Bob J
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To: skeeter
It is possible to win without sacrificing core beliefs.
20 posted on 11/20/2002 7:53:18 PM PST by Bob J
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