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California Schemin': Bush could win California in 2004.
Wall ST Journal ^
| November 19, 2002
| KEN KHACHIGIAN
Posted on 11/19/2002 3:58:51 AM PST by SJackson
Edited on 04/22/2004 11:47:32 PM PDT by Jim Robinson.
[history]
SAN CLEMENTE, Calif. -- As the president savors this month's election results and the promise of moving his agenda in the capital, the gubernatorial vote in California offers tantalizing clues for his 2004 re-election campaign. The outcome on the coast -- despite a Democratic sweep -- offers great opportunity for George W. Bush to turn the Golden State into a "red" one.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: calgov2002
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1
posted on
11/19/2002 3:58:51 AM PST
by
SJackson
To: SJackson
Good post. I wonder when the naysayers about Bushes latino strategy will start showing up and redefing a complete pubbie win that doesn't include latino votes.
2
posted on
11/19/2002 4:14:20 AM PST
by
Bob J
To: Bob J
Gray Davis was effectively held to a few coastal counties. The Democrats have been shut out of the new Republican heartland which is EVERYTHING EAST of San Franciso and L.A counties.
To: goldstategop; eureka!
I personally think Dubya needs to send his nephew, George P. Bush, out to Cali for the next two years to win over the female Latino vote. And with his looks he may win over San Francisco males as well. :-)
4
posted on
11/19/2002 6:54:09 AM PST
by
Coop
To: Bob J
No problem with the Bushie strategy to capture legally registered Latinos.
The question we've got for CA is, "waddaya gonna do about vote fraud?" Analysts who studied Gore's "victory" in CA "suspected" upwards of 300,000 illegal votes. But, truthfully, they have no real idea , either.
The number of straight voters in the "red counties," which includes legally registered democrats, may not be able to overcome the vast numbers of illegally registered democrat voters in the coastal counties, particularly when turn-out is low.
The problem I have with all this is no one knows the size of the problem. Is the Bush strategy counting on a 75% Republican majority in the "red counties?" This just ain't adding up. Simon did a lot better than I thought he would, but we have no idea, none, of how many of the illegal registrations were used against him. I have the feeling (unsubstantiated) that with this low turn-out we saw, fraud in the "blue counties" may have played a significant part in his defeat.
That is one problem with fraudulent votes nationwide: we know they are out there, we have no idea how many. This is serious. Insofar as I know, no one has analyzed the "Motor Votor" registrations, which as far as I am concerned, would be a damn good place to start looking for fraud, especially multiple registrations and registered illegal aliens.
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
fyi
To: SJackson
Along the way, Republicans picked up two assembly seats, one state senate seat, and trail by less than one vote per precinct in the state controller's race where absentee votes are still being counted. To correlate, what I have been reading in other threads, this implies:
1. The Fresno GOP assembly seat up was going to court to resolve some ballot issue?
2. Denham won the Senate seat?
3. Did not McClintock concede to Westery? Does McClintock still hava a chance?
7
posted on
11/19/2002 1:46:45 PM PST
by
NEWwoman
To: Libertarianize the GOP
Who is going to run against Boxer? I like either Cox or Rogan. Think about Doolittle vs Fienstien in '06
8
posted on
11/19/2002 2:01:42 PM PST
by
CPT Clay
To: Bob J
Looks like Bush is always thinking long term. He is confident enough to let his opponents win today to pave the road for a future triumph. Davis may have been reelected, but he faces a staggering budget deficit.
Maybe Bush was thinking ahead to 2004, when California, with an unpopular Dem. governor, might be maneuvered into Bush's corner. The governorship can always be taken back in 2006. :)
To: Bob J
I wonder when the naysayers about Bushes latino strategy will start showing up and redefing a complete pubbie win that doesn't include latino votes.They usually show up immediately after someone comments on how swell it is that the GOP is now endeavoring to build constituencies based upon ethnicity, just like their democratic cousins.
10
posted on
11/19/2002 3:28:47 PM PST
by
skeeter
To: Libertarianize the GOP; *calgov2002; Grampa Dave; Carry_Okie; SierraWasp; Gophack; RonDog; ...
Thanks, I seemed to have missed this earlier in the day!
calgov2002:
To: CPT Clay
Who is going to run against Boxer? I like either Cox or Rogan. Think about Doolittle vs Fienstien in '06I really am interested in knowing more about the former mayor of San Diego, Rodger Hedgecock. He has a talk show in SD and does a great job of filling in for Rush.
To: SJackson
bookmark bump
13
posted on
11/20/2002 8:40:31 AM PST
by
Cacique
To: NEWwoman
3. Did not McClintock concede to Westery? Does McClintock still hava a chance? Well, a concession has no legal merit and, if by some miracle he pulled it off, the concession means nothing. However, from my understanding, Tom McClintock conceded because mathmatically, he wouldn't have won the remaining absontee ballots. According to dpwiener, he needed to win 62 percent of the rest of the ballots left to count, and thats is really unlikely (especially since, I believe the remaining ballots left to count include LA County which, even absontee ballots, might have a liberal lean unfortuently).
14
posted on
11/20/2002 10:56:35 AM PST
by
Simmy
To: SJackson
While I will not say an R win in California in 2004 is impossible.... using the election of Governor this last round as an indicator of overall R v D trends in Cali is comical at best. The only reason the R did so strong in Cali was bacause Davis is SOOOOOO bad... and even as bad as he is, he managed to win. It would be nice to see the urban centers go R, but not holding my breath.
To: Simmy
bummer!
Thanks for the analysis.
16
posted on
11/20/2002 11:12:22 AM PST
by
NEWwoman
To: SJackson
We'll be ready. Go, GOP! We should continuously register new Republicans between now and then and TAKE BACK OUR STATE! Go, Bush! For victory & freedom!!!
To: goldstategop
Maybe it's time for the Great State of East California.
To: adingdangdoo
10-4
19
posted on
11/20/2002 7:52:36 PM PST
by
Bob J
To: skeeter
It is possible to win without sacrificing core beliefs.
20
posted on
11/20/2002 7:53:18 PM PST
by
Bob J
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