Posted on 11/18/2002 6:23:24 PM PST by Mark Felton
November 18, 2002
Target: Tom Tancredo
Some Say GOPPrimary Challenge Likely
By Josh Kurtz He represents one of the most conservative districts in the nation. He just trounced his Democratic challenger by 37 points. Yet Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) may be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2004 election cycle.
Tancredo, a controversial, outspoken voice for the Republican right who is entering his third term, has angered leading Republicans back home and in the White House.
The House Member's criticisms of President Bush's immigration policy bought him a 40-minute rebuke earlier this year from Bush adviser Karl Rove, who, in the Congressman's own words, warned him "never to darken the door of the White House again." And his decision to renounce his pledge to serve only three terms has infuriated powerful Colorado Republicans, including his political patron, former Sen. Bill Armstrong (R).
"I'll be surprised if he doesn't have a primary [in 2004]," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster.
Several Republicans, including popular state Treasurer Mike Coffman, who just won a landslide re-election of his own, are considering taking on Tancredo in the '04 primary.
Other potential candidates include state Sen. Jim Dyer (R) and former Arapahoe County Commissioner Steve Ward. "It's a given" that someone will run against the 56-year-old lawmaker, Coffman said. "There are questions about his term-limit pledge. When you have someone like Senator Armstrong, who was his mentor, backing away from him - I think that resonates."
Armstrong was instrumental in getting Tancredo elected in the first place, endorsing him over four strong opponents in a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Schaefer (R) in 1998. By Tancredo's reckoning, Armstrong's blessing was worth 3 points at the polls - which just happened to be his margin of victory in the primary.
Even though he may not seek re-election in 2004 - and would consider running for Senate if Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) retires - he has chucked the term-limit promise nevertheless.
"The term-limit pledge in and of itself is not the deciding factor if he will run again," said Tancredo spokeswoman Lara Kennedy.
Like all Members who change their minds on term limits, Tancredo has cast his decision as being in the best interests of his district and pet causes. Tancredo wants to preserve his seniority for his suburban district south of Denver and angle for better committee assignments. Plus, he does not want to lose the momentum he has built fighting the government's open immigration policies, Kennedy said. Tancredo is the founder of the House Immigration Reform Caucus.
While plenty of politicians have broken their term-limit pledges before, including Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.), Tancredo's decision is more noteworthy because he once headed Colorado's term-limit organization.
"All too often you have terrific candidates who come to Washington with the best of intentions, but they get too comfortable, and when the time comes, they don't want to go home," lamented Stacie Rumenap, a spokeswoman for U.S.Term Limits.
Whether Tancredo suffers any political damage remains to be seen. So far, the handful of Members who have broken their pledges, including McInnis, have not suffered any consequences at the polls, Rumenap conceded. And U.S.Term Limits is not in the business of recruiting challengers to incumbents who have broken the pledge.
Tancredo has promised to return campaign contributions to donors who are dismayed at his decision to ignore the term-limits pledge. But Armstrong - who did not respond to several messages left at his Denver law office - called the refund offer "hollow," according to The Rocky Mountain News.
Armstrong, meanwhile, has offered some kind words about Coffman.
"Mike Coffman is someone the Republican Party and the people of Colorado will rally around,"he told the News. "There is no doubt in my mind that he will be on the short list for whatever comes along - it could be governor, it could be Senator, it could be Congress."
Coffman, in fact, began running for Congress last year - in the new 7th district, which adjoins Tancredo's. But when the final district lines were drawn, Coffman found himself in Tancredo's 6th district, just a few blocks from the 7th, and chose not to move or run.
Coffman said that while he has not given much thought to the 2004 election yet, he believes that Tancredo will be vulnerable. The three Republicans most frequently mentioned as challengers are all military veterans, while Tancredo is not, and that could make a difference in a district that values military service, political insiders said.
Coffman, a 47-year-old Marine Corps vet who served in Operation Desert Storm, said Tancredo's military deferments during the Vietnam War would hurt him as America prepares to attack Iraq, and could be linked to his decision to ignore the term-limit pledge.
"Here's a guy ordering young men off to war and he himself didn't serve," he said. "I think in this conservative district, something like that could resonate."
Certainly, Tancredo's record would contrast with Coffman's, or Dyer's, who is an Air Force veteran, or Ward's, who is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves and is on active duty in Florida.
Dyer called it "highly unlikely" that he would challenge Tancredo, but said somebody else might, and predicted that the term-limit issue would sting the incumbent.
"I think a number of people that support Tom are not going to support him if he breaks the term-limit pledge,"said Dyer, who was a surrogate for Tancredo at a candidate forum this fall. "We can't say that situational ethics is bad for party A but not for party B."
Ward, a former mayor of suburban Glendale, could not be reached for comment, but is expected to return to Colorado next year. In an interview with the News after completing his one term on the Arapahoe County Commission, Ward made his opinion of politicians who stay in office too long perfectly clear.
"Any politician who can't find the bathrooms in the first week doesn't deserve to be in public office," he said.
It is unclear whether the White House would try to get involved in a primary challenge to Tancredo.
But it is fair to say that Tancredo is not one of the president's favorite people. Earlier this year, the Congressman accused Bush of pandering to Hispanic voters and trying to prop up Mexican President Vicente Fox by offering amnesty to certain undocumented immigrants. That declaration brought an angry 40-minute phone call from Rove, and Bush pointedly failed to introduce Tancredo to the crowd during a political rally in Colorado in September.
With his hard-line views on immigration, Tancredo is no stranger to controversy. In 1999, he gained publicity for reaffirming his support for gun owners' rights just days after the massacre at Columbine High School, which is six blocks from his house.
The Southern Poverty Law Center released a report last summer linking Tancredo to extremist groups, which the Congressman dismissed as "McCarthyism."
And he was embarrassed earlier this year when it was revealed that undocumented workers had been hired to do some construction work on his Littleton home.
But pollster Ciruli said Tancredo's views on immigration are in line with his constituents'.
"Nobody who's going to argue the soft side of immigration is going to beat him in the Republican primary, or even in the general," he said.
After seeing two fairly viable opponents get wiped out by Tancredo in 1998 and 2000, Democrats appear to have abandoned the 6th district - leaving Republicans there to decide whether they want him to remain in office.
Are you kidding? Of course he believes it.
Hey it would be nice if he even talked tough about our borders and immigration. Instead we get people like Malvo and friends going on a killing spree. We get murdered border patrol agents. We tell criminals from mexico to central america that they can get out of trouble by coming to the US.
That was before 9-11, and Bucannon had trouble hiding his anti-semetism.
Jeez. Can I sell you this used car that has only been driven from the drug store and back by a little old lady for 20 years?
If you can't see "blanket" as a qualifier in Amnesty I guess you didn't understand what Hillary meant when she said she was for subsidized Health insurance in "Little Bite Sizes" after she had her head handed to her with her health task force that wanted a total government takeover of private health insurance industry.
You really are blind when it comes to anything to do with Bush. Maybe I'm different but I look at the President as a "Civil Servant" who has accountability to the public unlike some who seem to look at Bush as a KING that can do no wrong.
A bit over the edge huh? If Bush is to blame for the sniper shootings then he is to blame for every nut-case that goes off anywhere in the country. Illegal immigration is a serious problem but it is NOT a problem that began 20 months ago. Get a grip.
It must be dreadful to be so out of touch; at least it LOOKS dreadful to me........LOL.
Can anyone on this website defend the President WITHOUT getting their emotions involved?
Think about the following questions, ClancyJ: 1.)What are the likely results of unchecked immigration, combined with liberalism, multiculturalism, radical nationalism?
2.) Do you think the G.W./Rove Hispanic strategy will ever work?
3.)Why do you think he will not do anything about the border situation?
4.)If he doesn't solve these problems, and seems more concerned with Mexico's wishes over America's needs--what conclusion can you possibly come to?
It has been documented that Tancredo was out of town when the work was done on his home by the supposedly, but never substantiated, illegal alien workers. So Tancredo was not there to see "Hispanics in his home hooking up his stereo".
I don't know, you seem to be quite acquainted with it.
There's a section of the Constitution that says that our borders must be protected from invasion. A biggie, especially after September 11.
So Tancredo's obvious anti-Mexicanism is any different? Jews are a much smaller minority in this country than Hispanics. Look I believe that bigotry is a legitimate view and is not racism. I am a bigot on many issues but when a person makes one issue and one group his sole defining issue he risks becoming a target for charges of racism and that is the kiss of death in politics.
Post it please.
I didnt say Bush was to blame for the sniper shootings.
Bush is indeed to blame for not taking a stronger stance on securing our borders and controlling immigration.
We are supposedly having a war on terrorism yet we are not doing anything to stop terrorists from getting into the country. We are telling criminals from mexico to south america that they can flee their crimes by illegally coming to the US.
We did. I believe he said more than that but that's enough me...Thanks for clarifying it. And if we are the extreme Right what are you? The extreme Left? You went on record for National Health Insurance a few months ago did you not? If the Republican Party is to ever dominate long term it is going to need a lot fewer socialists such as yourself in the ranks.
Wrong! Eyes wide open here. You're a first class Bush basher and nothing more. I've given you Bushes quote on amnesty, twice now. It's a straight forward, clear and concise statment. Bush has no compulsion to be king, or dictator. He was elected President through Constitutional decree and just completed the biggest Congressional victory in an off year, by a Republican President, in American political history. How you can consider President Bush anything but a 100% success, is beyond rational understanding.
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