TARGET: Tom Tancredo (Warned "never to darken the door of the White House again.")

By Josh Kurtz He represents one of the most conservative districts in the nation. He just trounced his Democratic challenger by 37 points. Yet Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) may be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2004 election cycle.

Tancredo, a controversial, outspoken voice for the Republican right who is entering his third term, has angered leading Republicans back home and in the White House.

The House Member's criticisms of President Bush's immigration policy bought him a 40-minute rebuke earlier this year from Bush adviser Karl Rove, who, in the Congressman's own words, warned him "never to darken the door of the White House again." And his decision to renounce his pledge to serve only three terms has infuriated powerful Colorado Republicans, including his political patron, former Sen. Bill Armstrong (R).

"I'll be surprised if he doesn't have a primary [in 2004]," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster.

Several Republicans, including popular state Treasurer Mike Coffman, who just won a landslide re-election of his own, are considering taking on Tancredo in the '04 primary.

Other potential candidates include state Sen. Jim Dyer (R) and former Arapahoe County Commissioner Steve Ward. "It's a given" that someone will run against the 56-year-old lawmaker, Coffman said. "There are questions about his term-limit pledge. When you have someone like Senator Armstrong, who was his mentor, backing away from him - I think that resonates."

Armstrong was instrumental in getting Tancredo elected in the first place, endorsing him over four strong opponents in a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Schaefer (R) in 1998. By Tancredo's reckoning, Armstrong's blessing was worth 3 points at the polls - which just happened to be his margin of victory in the primary.

Even though he may not seek re-election in 2004 - and would consider running for Senate if Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) retires - he has chucked the term-limit promise nevertheless.

"The term-limit pledge in and of itself is not the deciding factor if he will run again," said Tancredo spokeswoman Lara Kennedy.

Like all Members who change their minds on term limits, Tancredo has cast his decision as being in the best interests of his district and pet causes. Tancredo wants to preserve his seniority for his suburban district south of Denver and angle for better committee assignments. Plus, he does not want to lose the momentum he has built fighting the government's open immigration policies, Kennedy said. Tancredo is the founder of the House Immigration Reform Caucus.

While plenty of politicians have broken their term-limit pledges before, including Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.), Tancredo's decision is more noteworthy because he once headed Colorado's term-limit organization.

"All too often you have terrific candidates who come to Washington with the best of intentions, but they get too comfortable, and when the time comes, they don't want to go home," lamented Stacie Rumenap, a spokeswoman for U.S.Term Limits.

Whether Tancredo suffers any political damage remains to be seen. So far, the handful of Members who have broken their pledges, including McInnis, have not suffered any consequences at the polls, Rumenap conceded. And U.S.Term Limits is not in the business of recruiting challengers to incumbents who have broken the pledge.

Tancredo has promised to return campaign contributions to donors who are dismayed at his decision to ignore the term-limits pledge. But Armstrong - who did not respond to several messages left at his Denver law office - called the refund offer "hollow," according to The Rocky Mountain News.

"Mike Coffman is someone the Republican Party and the people of Colorado will rally around,"he told the News. "There is no doubt in my mind that he will be on the short list for whatever comes along - it could be governor, it could be Senator, it could be Congress."

Coffman, in fact, began running for Congress last year - in the new 7th district, which adjoins Tancredo's. But when the final district lines were drawn, Coffman found himself in Tancredo's 6th district, just a few blocks from the 7th, and chose not to move or run.

Coffman said that while he has not given much thought to the 2004 election yet, he believes that Tancredo will be vulnerable. The three Republicans most frequently mentioned as challengers are all military veterans, while Tancredo is not, and that could make a difference in a district that values military service, political insiders said.

Coffman, a 47-year-old Marine Corps vet who served in Operation Desert Storm, said Tancredo's military deferments during the Vietnam War would hurt him as America prepares to attack Iraq, and could be linked to his decision to ignore the term-limit pledge.

"Here's a guy ordering young men off to war and he himself didn't serve," he said. "I think in this conservative district, something like that could resonate."

Certainly, Tancredo's record would contrast with Coffman's, or Dyer's, who is an Air Force veteran, or Ward's, who is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves and is on active duty in Florida.

Dyer called it "highly unlikely" that he would challenge Tancredo, but said somebody else might, and predicted that the term-limit issue would sting the incumbent.

"I think a number of people that support Tom are not going to support him if he breaks the term-limit pledge,"said Dyer, who was a surrogate for Tancredo at a candidate forum this fall. "We can't say that situational ethics is bad for party A but not for party B."

Ward, a former mayor of suburban Glendale, could not be reached for comment, but is expected to return to Colorado next year. In an interview with the News after completing his one term on the Arapahoe County Commission, Ward made his opinion of politicians who stay in office too long perfectly clear.

"Any politician who can't find the bathrooms in the first week doesn't deserve to be in public office," he said.

It is unclear whether the White House would try to get involved in a primary challenge to Tancredo.

But it is fair to say that Tancredo is not one of the president's favorite people. Earlier this year, the Congressman accused Bush of pandering to Hispanic voters and trying to prop up Mexican President Vicente Fox by offering amnesty to certain undocumented immigrants. That declaration brought an angry 40-minute phone call from Rove, and Bush pointedly failed to introduce Tancredo to the crowd during a political rally in Colorado in September.

With his hard-line views on immigration, Tancredo is no stranger to controversy. In 1999, he gained publicity for reaffirming his support for gun owners' rights just days after the massacre at Columbine High School, which is six blocks from his house.

The Southern Poverty Law Center released a report last summer linking Tancredo to extremist groups, which the Congressman dismissed as "McCarthyism."

And he was embarrassed earlier this year when it was revealed that undocumented workers had been hired to do some construction work on his Littleton home.

But pollster Ciruli said Tancredo's views on immigration are in line with his constituents'.

"Nobody who's going to argue the soft side of immigration is going to beat him in the Republican primary, or even in the general," he said.

After seeing two fairly viable opponents get wiped out by Tancredo in 1998 and 2000, Democrats appear to have abandoned the 6th district - leaving Republicans there to decide whether they want him to remain in office.

Did he say he would limit his terms? Did he?

Who cares? I have never been for term limits. Term limits was knocked down. His constituents want him. As a Coloradan, not in his district, I want him. It's not like he signed CFR or something.

[There are adjustments that a politician must make in order to deal with situations that were not in existence at the time that he stated a policy for his tenure on any number of subjects. That's just dealing with the situations as they rise...it's politics. To blatantly lie about a matter of personal integrity is unforgiveable. There was nothing that forced Tancredo to break his own pledge, other than personal ambition.]

Now that is really some logic. How about this President Bush swore to uphold the law when he took office - but he isn't doing it - so that is just 'dealing with a situation' by letting our borders stay open for illegals to come, and leaving it open while we are going to war with a supposed terrorist country. But of course, this pales in comparison to not living up to the pledge of a 2 term limit.

While I support President Bush feverently...this open border with Mexico must be stopped. If Bush doesn't do something about the horde of illegal aliens coming into this country, not only will we see an even more devastating attack that will kill tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Americans; we will see the GOP base eroded by a vast number of voters that don't adhere to our American values and will by happily bought off with social crap programs the Democrats will bribe them with. I sometimes wonder if the GOP can't see the forest for the trees.

Excellent.Excellent. MRN.

The problem area is the huge Texas border. Patroling that many miles is impossible with the number of officers there now. Of course the P Act calls for a huge increase of thousands of officers, but the Democrats have stalled passing the '02 budget. No money...no security.

The wall at the California border seems to be working...at least that's what the patrolmen who collect dead Mexicans outta the desert say. Walking that additional hundred miles or so seems to slow 'em down.

Bush is out of step with with more than 75% of the American people on immigration.

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Bush is out of step with the American people on nearly everything. That's why he started out with a 15 point lead and ended up losing the popular vote to Owlgore. That's also why thr percent of voter turnout was among the worst in history. The more that people found out about Bush, the less people liked him. What's saved Bush's behind is Islamics flying airplanes into buildings and people grashping at Bush as a wartime savior.

"However just like a lawyer/Politician you say you are pro-illegal immigrant without actually saying it."

Like Tancredo is a racist without actually saying anything racist?

"Somewhere in these archives, there are a few replies in which you state that the amnesty provision is in fact not an amnesty provision."

And having said that, it makes me pro-illegal?

"So I guess you are calling the Majority of Americans liars? I say this because "you all", means the anti-illegal-immigration folks since this is what we are discussing."

We were discussing the fact that Tom Tancredo is a liar. But since you brought up the subject, please provide any sort of reputable poll indicating that the majority of the American people see immigration as the issue that will take front center stage in the 2004 elections.

You can take a gander at my posted Gallup poll results.

When you spend so much time on the border for publicity and you see Hispanics in your home hooking up your stereo YES you ask.

What a crock. Have you ever been to CO? That's the most racist thing said on this thread so far. LOL

Pete Wilson demonstrated that if you handle the immigration issue the wrong way, it will kill you.

It didn't kill him. He won in a landslide, as did Prop. 187. That creep Davis killed 187, and he was in cahoots with the real problem; the Mexican government.

His clumsy handling of illegal immigrants in California cost Republicans the state, and they are still struggling to get back into the game.

See above. If 187 hadn't been killed by Davis and the Mexicans, California wouldn't be in the horrible shape it's in today.... crawling with illegal aliens, infested with gangs, and on the verge of bankruptcy. 187 would pass in a landslide if it were on the ballot today. Hopefully it will be come 2004.

And Bush is out of step with with more than 75% of the American people on immigration.

Not at all.

"There will be no blanket amnesty for illegals. I've said that point blank. I will say it as many times as I need to say it."
President Bush, August.23,2001 Crawford Texas

the Republicans ... will never get [the vote of Hispanics] in any numbers

I beg to differ, and so do the results of the past election.

George Pataki got 51% of the Hispanic vote in NY... as opposed to 46% of everyone else.
Jeb Bush got 56% of the Hispanic vote in FL
the new Republican TX gov (name... sorry... mind is going) got 36% of the Hispanic vote against a strong Hispanic Democrat.

Hispanics in general have a proud conservative religious background. That makes them natural constituents of the Republican party, if we find a good way out of the immigration morass. I agree with Cicero about being divided on the best way to handle it, and it is a toughie for all Americans, including our President.

One thing is for sure, though, slandering Hispanics in general out of frustration over illegal immigration is NOT the best way to handle it.

Btw, do you agree cities should be accepting these cards? Seems to me only illegal aliens have a need for them. Legal immigrants will already have the proper documents.

No I don't think cities should be accepting them. I don't think any accommodation should be made for illegal aliens of any sort and I also do not think anyone is providing ANY solutions beyond a lot of heated rhetoric and pestering. There is only one viable option to the southern border and that is the positioning of the military in numbers large enough to close the borders and to round up and deport the 10 million that are here now. That is what it will take since civilian authorities have neither the resources nor the desire to do it. If that is what it takes then you had best be putting your energy into identifying a candidate that shares that view and get him elected.

President's party has picked up seats in the state houses in an off year election.

Most voters don't know who Rove is and he is certainly not dictating war or economic policy. IMO, the sham of the Clintons, NJ Lautenburg, Wellstone's 'funeral', a widow senator et nauseum has feed up the voters. We won despite Rove.

Bush in 2000 should have won by a landslide, but squeaked in. We are still squeaking along. The big jump to control Washington was made by Gingrich. Rove is a millstone.

You have nothing to fear, Tancredo is not running for president. He's looking to run for the Senate.

But he is a voice of reason on illegal immigration in a sea of do-nothings who want to pretend there isn't a problem. With 10 million+ illegals running around, some of whom are blowing up our buildings and acting as snipers I'd say we have a problem.

In 1970, the median hourly wage for Americans was $3.27, today it is $14.89.

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That's not adjusted for inflation or unemployment.

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