Posted on 11/18/2002 6:23:24 PM PST by Mark Felton
November 18, 2002
Target: Tom Tancredo
Some Say GOPPrimary Challenge Likely
By Josh Kurtz He represents one of the most conservative districts in the nation. He just trounced his Democratic challenger by 37 points. Yet Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) may be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2004 election cycle.
Tancredo, a controversial, outspoken voice for the Republican right who is entering his third term, has angered leading Republicans back home and in the White House.
The House Member's criticisms of President Bush's immigration policy bought him a 40-minute rebuke earlier this year from Bush adviser Karl Rove, who, in the Congressman's own words, warned him "never to darken the door of the White House again." And his decision to renounce his pledge to serve only three terms has infuriated powerful Colorado Republicans, including his political patron, former Sen. Bill Armstrong (R).
"I'll be surprised if he doesn't have a primary [in 2004]," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster.
Several Republicans, including popular state Treasurer Mike Coffman, who just won a landslide re-election of his own, are considering taking on Tancredo in the '04 primary.
Other potential candidates include state Sen. Jim Dyer (R) and former Arapahoe County Commissioner Steve Ward. "It's a given" that someone will run against the 56-year-old lawmaker, Coffman said. "There are questions about his term-limit pledge. When you have someone like Senator Armstrong, who was his mentor, backing away from him - I think that resonates."
Armstrong was instrumental in getting Tancredo elected in the first place, endorsing him over four strong opponents in a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Schaefer (R) in 1998. By Tancredo's reckoning, Armstrong's blessing was worth 3 points at the polls - which just happened to be his margin of victory in the primary.
Even though he may not seek re-election in 2004 - and would consider running for Senate if Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) retires - he has chucked the term-limit promise nevertheless.
"The term-limit pledge in and of itself is not the deciding factor if he will run again," said Tancredo spokeswoman Lara Kennedy.
Like all Members who change their minds on term limits, Tancredo has cast his decision as being in the best interests of his district and pet causes. Tancredo wants to preserve his seniority for his suburban district south of Denver and angle for better committee assignments. Plus, he does not want to lose the momentum he has built fighting the government's open immigration policies, Kennedy said. Tancredo is the founder of the House Immigration Reform Caucus.
While plenty of politicians have broken their term-limit pledges before, including Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.), Tancredo's decision is more noteworthy because he once headed Colorado's term-limit organization.
"All too often you have terrific candidates who come to Washington with the best of intentions, but they get too comfortable, and when the time comes, they don't want to go home," lamented Stacie Rumenap, a spokeswoman for U.S.Term Limits.
Whether Tancredo suffers any political damage remains to be seen. So far, the handful of Members who have broken their pledges, including McInnis, have not suffered any consequences at the polls, Rumenap conceded. And U.S.Term Limits is not in the business of recruiting challengers to incumbents who have broken the pledge.
Tancredo has promised to return campaign contributions to donors who are dismayed at his decision to ignore the term-limits pledge. But Armstrong - who did not respond to several messages left at his Denver law office - called the refund offer "hollow," according to The Rocky Mountain News.
Armstrong, meanwhile, has offered some kind words about Coffman.
"Mike Coffman is someone the Republican Party and the people of Colorado will rally around,"he told the News. "There is no doubt in my mind that he will be on the short list for whatever comes along - it could be governor, it could be Senator, it could be Congress."
Coffman, in fact, began running for Congress last year - in the new 7th district, which adjoins Tancredo's. But when the final district lines were drawn, Coffman found himself in Tancredo's 6th district, just a few blocks from the 7th, and chose not to move or run.
Coffman said that while he has not given much thought to the 2004 election yet, he believes that Tancredo will be vulnerable. The three Republicans most frequently mentioned as challengers are all military veterans, while Tancredo is not, and that could make a difference in a district that values military service, political insiders said.
Coffman, a 47-year-old Marine Corps vet who served in Operation Desert Storm, said Tancredo's military deferments during the Vietnam War would hurt him as America prepares to attack Iraq, and could be linked to his decision to ignore the term-limit pledge.
"Here's a guy ordering young men off to war and he himself didn't serve," he said. "I think in this conservative district, something like that could resonate."
Certainly, Tancredo's record would contrast with Coffman's, or Dyer's, who is an Air Force veteran, or Ward's, who is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves and is on active duty in Florida.
Dyer called it "highly unlikely" that he would challenge Tancredo, but said somebody else might, and predicted that the term-limit issue would sting the incumbent.
"I think a number of people that support Tom are not going to support him if he breaks the term-limit pledge,"said Dyer, who was a surrogate for Tancredo at a candidate forum this fall. "We can't say that situational ethics is bad for party A but not for party B."
Ward, a former mayor of suburban Glendale, could not be reached for comment, but is expected to return to Colorado next year. In an interview with the News after completing his one term on the Arapahoe County Commission, Ward made his opinion of politicians who stay in office too long perfectly clear.
"Any politician who can't find the bathrooms in the first week doesn't deserve to be in public office," he said.
It is unclear whether the White House would try to get involved in a primary challenge to Tancredo.
But it is fair to say that Tancredo is not one of the president's favorite people. Earlier this year, the Congressman accused Bush of pandering to Hispanic voters and trying to prop up Mexican President Vicente Fox by offering amnesty to certain undocumented immigrants. That declaration brought an angry 40-minute phone call from Rove, and Bush pointedly failed to introduce Tancredo to the crowd during a political rally in Colorado in September.
With his hard-line views on immigration, Tancredo is no stranger to controversy. In 1999, he gained publicity for reaffirming his support for gun owners' rights just days after the massacre at Columbine High School, which is six blocks from his house.
The Southern Poverty Law Center released a report last summer linking Tancredo to extremist groups, which the Congressman dismissed as "McCarthyism."
And he was embarrassed earlier this year when it was revealed that undocumented workers had been hired to do some construction work on his Littleton home.
But pollster Ciruli said Tancredo's views on immigration are in line with his constituents'.
"Nobody who's going to argue the soft side of immigration is going to beat him in the Republican primary, or even in the general," he said.
After seeing two fairly viable opponents get wiped out by Tancredo in 1998 and 2000, Democrats appear to have abandoned the 6th district - leaving Republicans there to decide whether they want him to remain in office.
Keep in mind, Rove had Bush tooling around California the week before the 2000 election while Gore was in battleground states. He's not the political genius people have claimed. Without the Democrats' 2 solid months of ridiculous behavior prior to the last election, they probably would have retained control.
BUMP!!!!
My kinda guy!
Okay, I am going to give you your chance to tell us all what YOU expect from the Republican party now that it is in total control of the United States Government for the first time in 50 Years.
Please list how they will deal with the illegal immigration problem.
Please say when they will realize that we don't want unprotected borders.
Please tell us what Liberties will be protected with the Patriot Act and what Liberties we will forfeit.
Please tell us when our Republican President, our Republican Congress and our Republican Senate will stop subsidizing the Communist United Nations plans to socialize OUR America.
Please tell us when we will feel secure in our own country or will the Republican controlled INS continue to allow Arabs and Middle Eastern terrorists of all nature to come into our cities.
Remember I am asking you to tell us what all what YOU expect from the Republican party. I am not asking you to belittle my concerns, just promote your own and how the Republican party will correct them.
Looks like California schools aren't doing all that great in spelling either.
It isn't Tom Tancredo's responsibility to take up a legal challenge, that's up to the executive branch to enforce any statutes or Constitutional laws. In other words, Bush has to do it through the Justice Department.
Tancredo has already indicated he will look into filing a bill in Congress to make sure these cards are not used should the executive branch fail us, again.
You said:
And his decision to renounce his pledge to serve only three terms has infuriated powerful Colorado Republicans, including his political patron, former Sen. Bill Armstrong (R).
IF you had read the thread you would know that the source of this info has been discredited and refuted by other Coloradan Freepers who are in his district.
You also said:
And he was embarrassed earlier this year when it was revealed that undocumented workers had been hired to do some construction work on his Littleton home.
IF you had read this thread you would know that he hired a contractor who had illegals working for him. (the contractor) Unless you are a moron, purposely dense or just prejudiced you would realize that Tancredo had no reason to know that illegals had worked on his house. It is not his responsibility to ask his contractor nor is it reasonable to expect him to have time to even wonder about such things.
Did you read the thread or are you just dense?
It's not the person, it's the message. And Bush is out of step with with more than 75% of the American people on immigration. At what point this effects his popularity is anybody's guess. IMO, Bush runs a significant risk to his re-election prospects if he does nothing about illegal immigration.
Well, first, you didn't read my post. I don't think Bush is looking for the Hispanic vote, not in an real sense. It seems he is looking for the Arab vote.
As for the Republican winning - please - like that is important. So we can say we won and then be kicked in the face by the people we helped put there. That makes no sense - absolutely none.
But you need to look at the map of Texas during the last election and see how the border areas went solidly Democrat. Now we are going to absolutely sell our country for 10% of the Mexican vote? Seems like you and others don't value our country much.
Now I personally believe if the President would close our borders, enforce the laws, clean out and clean up our country - he would have much more than 40% of the white vote and from what I have heard from the black people, he would get a lot of their votes. The black people are not happy about immigration - no matter that Jesse and LaRaza have formed an unholy alliance.
But all that aside - right is right and wrong is wrong. Either we have laws or not. If we have laws they are to be obeyed by everyone, fromt he President to his wealthy campaign contributors to foreign national. It seems today our laws are only made for the working Americans - no one else need pay attention.
Tom's time has run out.
You. I just want to know where the other 1 percent is hiding.
Before a law can be enforced the law in question has to be identified. An assertion that a "law may very well be broken" is not much to go on is it?
To preserve and protect my country against all enemies foreign and domestic.
I guess some forget those parts, huh?
------------------------
He knew he wasn't. He enlisted in a flying country club for the well-connected.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.