Posted on 11/18/2002 6:23:24 PM PST by Mark Felton
November 18, 2002
Target: Tom Tancredo
Some Say GOPPrimary Challenge Likely
By Josh Kurtz He represents one of the most conservative districts in the nation. He just trounced his Democratic challenger by 37 points. Yet Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) may be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2004 election cycle.
Tancredo, a controversial, outspoken voice for the Republican right who is entering his third term, has angered leading Republicans back home and in the White House.
The House Member's criticisms of President Bush's immigration policy bought him a 40-minute rebuke earlier this year from Bush adviser Karl Rove, who, in the Congressman's own words, warned him "never to darken the door of the White House again." And his decision to renounce his pledge to serve only three terms has infuriated powerful Colorado Republicans, including his political patron, former Sen. Bill Armstrong (R).
"I'll be surprised if he doesn't have a primary [in 2004]," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster.
Several Republicans, including popular state Treasurer Mike Coffman, who just won a landslide re-election of his own, are considering taking on Tancredo in the '04 primary.
Other potential candidates include state Sen. Jim Dyer (R) and former Arapahoe County Commissioner Steve Ward. "It's a given" that someone will run against the 56-year-old lawmaker, Coffman said. "There are questions about his term-limit pledge. When you have someone like Senator Armstrong, who was his mentor, backing away from him - I think that resonates."
Armstrong was instrumental in getting Tancredo elected in the first place, endorsing him over four strong opponents in a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Dan Schaefer (R) in 1998. By Tancredo's reckoning, Armstrong's blessing was worth 3 points at the polls - which just happened to be his margin of victory in the primary.
Even though he may not seek re-election in 2004 - and would consider running for Senate if Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R) retires - he has chucked the term-limit promise nevertheless.
"The term-limit pledge in and of itself is not the deciding factor if he will run again," said Tancredo spokeswoman Lara Kennedy.
Like all Members who change their minds on term limits, Tancredo has cast his decision as being in the best interests of his district and pet causes. Tancredo wants to preserve his seniority for his suburban district south of Denver and angle for better committee assignments. Plus, he does not want to lose the momentum he has built fighting the government's open immigration policies, Kennedy said. Tancredo is the founder of the House Immigration Reform Caucus.
While plenty of politicians have broken their term-limit pledges before, including Rep. Scott McInnis (R-Colo.), Tancredo's decision is more noteworthy because he once headed Colorado's term-limit organization.
"All too often you have terrific candidates who come to Washington with the best of intentions, but they get too comfortable, and when the time comes, they don't want to go home," lamented Stacie Rumenap, a spokeswoman for U.S.Term Limits.
Whether Tancredo suffers any political damage remains to be seen. So far, the handful of Members who have broken their pledges, including McInnis, have not suffered any consequences at the polls, Rumenap conceded. And U.S.Term Limits is not in the business of recruiting challengers to incumbents who have broken the pledge.
Tancredo has promised to return campaign contributions to donors who are dismayed at his decision to ignore the term-limits pledge. But Armstrong - who did not respond to several messages left at his Denver law office - called the refund offer "hollow," according to The Rocky Mountain News.
Armstrong, meanwhile, has offered some kind words about Coffman.
"Mike Coffman is someone the Republican Party and the people of Colorado will rally around,"he told the News. "There is no doubt in my mind that he will be on the short list for whatever comes along - it could be governor, it could be Senator, it could be Congress."
Coffman, in fact, began running for Congress last year - in the new 7th district, which adjoins Tancredo's. But when the final district lines were drawn, Coffman found himself in Tancredo's 6th district, just a few blocks from the 7th, and chose not to move or run.
Coffman said that while he has not given much thought to the 2004 election yet, he believes that Tancredo will be vulnerable. The three Republicans most frequently mentioned as challengers are all military veterans, while Tancredo is not, and that could make a difference in a district that values military service, political insiders said.
Coffman, a 47-year-old Marine Corps vet who served in Operation Desert Storm, said Tancredo's military deferments during the Vietnam War would hurt him as America prepares to attack Iraq, and could be linked to his decision to ignore the term-limit pledge.
"Here's a guy ordering young men off to war and he himself didn't serve," he said. "I think in this conservative district, something like that could resonate."
Certainly, Tancredo's record would contrast with Coffman's, or Dyer's, who is an Air Force veteran, or Ward's, who is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves and is on active duty in Florida.
Dyer called it "highly unlikely" that he would challenge Tancredo, but said somebody else might, and predicted that the term-limit issue would sting the incumbent.
"I think a number of people that support Tom are not going to support him if he breaks the term-limit pledge,"said Dyer, who was a surrogate for Tancredo at a candidate forum this fall. "We can't say that situational ethics is bad for party A but not for party B."
Ward, a former mayor of suburban Glendale, could not be reached for comment, but is expected to return to Colorado next year. In an interview with the News after completing his one term on the Arapahoe County Commission, Ward made his opinion of politicians who stay in office too long perfectly clear.
"Any politician who can't find the bathrooms in the first week doesn't deserve to be in public office," he said.
It is unclear whether the White House would try to get involved in a primary challenge to Tancredo.
But it is fair to say that Tancredo is not one of the president's favorite people. Earlier this year, the Congressman accused Bush of pandering to Hispanic voters and trying to prop up Mexican President Vicente Fox by offering amnesty to certain undocumented immigrants. That declaration brought an angry 40-minute phone call from Rove, and Bush pointedly failed to introduce Tancredo to the crowd during a political rally in Colorado in September.
With his hard-line views on immigration, Tancredo is no stranger to controversy. In 1999, he gained publicity for reaffirming his support for gun owners' rights just days after the massacre at Columbine High School, which is six blocks from his house.
The Southern Poverty Law Center released a report last summer linking Tancredo to extremist groups, which the Congressman dismissed as "McCarthyism."
And he was embarrassed earlier this year when it was revealed that undocumented workers had been hired to do some construction work on his Littleton home.
But pollster Ciruli said Tancredo's views on immigration are in line with his constituents'.
"Nobody who's going to argue the soft side of immigration is going to beat him in the Republican primary, or even in the general," he said.
After seeing two fairly viable opponents get wiped out by Tancredo in 1998 and 2000, Democrats appear to have abandoned the 6th district - leaving Republicans there to decide whether they want him to remain in office.
Where are those 1.2 million right now? Some were stopped more than a few times but most are here now. The border is very open but it takes an illegal a few tries before they catch on how not to get caught.
The agents are trying and you're right---they are risking their lives out there. They can catch an illegal, send him back, and he's just going to come right back over. Until Mexico begins to offer it's citizens something more, we're going to have this problem. We also need to revamp our immigration laws entirely ---quit allowing the scam that allows people to bring in relatives who they get right onto SSI and Medicaid. Family "reunification" is unfair bacause some of the worthier immigrants who'll work are finding it impossible to come in legally while those who won't/can't work can very easily come in. If we need agricultural workers, then we should let those in legally and bar some of the others instead. Maybe sponsors should be employers and not relatives who at the present only need to be 125% over the federal poverty level.
I knew what the morons were saying and I was calling attention to their silliness. Looks like I hooked you too.
An unwanted swell of illegals coming over the border, is not the armed invasion mentioned in the Constitution and you know it.
Accusing the President of not fulfilling his oath is stupid and dishonest.
Luis accuses me of advocating the murder of Mexican children on the Texas border. He can't prove his lie with a link, but he has the nerve to keep calling Tom Tancredo a liar.
I say Luis is the liar here. Janet says Luis is a "bloviator". Reagan Man says Luis is a "bullfighting, shitkicker".
I'd say Luis is a little bit of all four.
How does lying, bloviating, bullshitter sound?
LOL!
I firmly agree with your assessment of Rove: he's just happens to be there when Republicans sometimes win elections, and he takes credit accordingly. I did not read of any particular race, other than CA, where he had supposedly taken an "active interest." I imagine Bill Simon could tell us who is the "true" Rove.
Well, as for corruption, I never ventured too far inland into Mexico and when I lived on the border, tourists were pretty safe as they realized tourism is what kept them going. Of course, we always paid the man standing on that block to watch our cars - but I think that was more customary than necessary - don't know.
As for most Mexican perferring to stay home in the past - yes, I think so - but many lived in poverty and as I said, they came here and worked, but went home. When they were here, they obeyed the laws, and were no problem. I do think many more would have immigrated had there been no 'official' or 'unofficial' limit. I think most Mexicans of today are no different from most people in the world, there are a huge number of Americans who would leave if they could better themselves. People don't have the same loyalty to their country. They have more loyalty to their ancestry or ethnicity than to their country. AT least that has been my experience, mostly with the younger people anyway. They do seem to think America is corrupt and many I talk with think freedom is a funny word. They believe we have freedom and private ownership as long as it doesn't get in the way of the government or some large corporation. Many say that our freedom is just an illusion. Sad.
Oh, Luis!!
The part that points out my claim of an open border is: schools overcrowded with the children of illegal aliens, hospitals broke from caring for non paying illlegal aliens, ER's so crowded with illegal aliens a sick child cannot be seen for 4 hours (in a very small community), cities are broke from caring for these people, states are broke from caring for these people, parts of Dallas look like Via Acuna, standing in line in the checkout while they get half a basket of food free with WIC, and pay for the other half with food stamps - now I could fill the page with the reasons we do have an open border.
If, in fact, 1.2 were caught - that would mean several million made it across and of that 1.2 million - probably 3/4 of them came back and were successful.
Now you can argue you want them, you can try to argue they are contributing more than they are taking - but don't try to argue we don't have an open border. Now I know you are actually trying to convince some who might believe you as they haven't, as yet, felt the sting - but I live in Texas, remember, - so I know you are not really talking to me. My answer to you is for the benefit of those same people - because you also know the truth.
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