Senate Outlook, 2004 Elections

[William McKinley]

While the dust has yet to settle on the 2002 elections, with a few races still not finalized and the Louisiana Senate seat held by Mary Landrieu being decided by a December runoff, it is not too early to look at the landscape for the 2004 Senate elections. Several characteristics of the landscape will favor the Republicans.

• In 2002, there were 20 Republican seats up compared to 14 Democrat seats. In 2004, these numbers will be almost completely reversed, with Democrats having to defend 19 seats to the Republicans' 15.

• Of the 34 races, 22 of them will be in states where George W. Bush captured the electoral votes, compared to 12 where Al Gore scored an electoral victory.

• The seats up for contest in 2004 were last voted on in 1998, a year where Democrats bucked the trend of losing House seats in a midterm election while controlling the White House, a feat that George W. Bush repeated this year. Despite that positive showing for the Democrats in 1998, only three of the Republican Senators up for reelection in 2004 were elected with less than 55% of the vote. In comparison, seven Democrats seats were won in 1998 with less than that percentage.

The Races

Alaska

Republican Frank Murkowski won this seat in 1998 handily-- handily being quite the understatement, as he beat Democrat Joseph Sonneman by a margin over 58%. Murkowski will not be running in 2004, however, having traded in his Senate seat for the Governor's mansion. He will be appointing someone to fill his seat, and it is likely whoever gets the nod will face a stiff challenge from outgoing Alaska Governor Tony Knowles (who had won the Governorship with a similarly impressive 49% margin in 1998). Bush carried Alaska by 31%, however, and Republican Ted Stevens just won again by nearly 70%. Knowles would face an uphill battle, but he is the only hope the Democrats have. Leaning Republican if Knowles runs, otherwise Safe Republican.

Alabama

Republican Richard Shelby won this seat in 1998 by a 26% margin. Fellow Republican Jeff Sessions just won the 2002 race for the other Alabama seat by nearly 19%. George Bush carried Alabama by 15%. Shelby will be 70 years old in 2004. This seat is likely to be maintained by the Republicans with little effort. Safe Republican.

Arkansas

This is a battle that will bear watching. Incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln won a solid, yet not overly so, victory in 1998, scoring 59% of the vote for a 14% margin. The other seat in Arkansas was just won by Democrat Mark Pryor, who benefitted from some personal problems for Tim Hutchinson, by a 8% margin. Arkansas went for George Bush in 2000, by just over 5%. Lincoln has to be considered the favorite in this race, although it is bound to be hotly contested. Leaning Democrat.

Arizona

Senator McCain remains popular in his homestate, and will win again if he runs. Rumors abound that McCain will change parties, although with the Republican takeover of the Senate this appears to be quite unlikely. The dynamics of this race will change markedly if McCain, who will be 68 in 2004 and has been battling skin cancer for quite some time, is not a candidate. George W. Bush won Arizona by 7 points, but Arizona just elected a Democrat Governor, Janet Napolitano by a slim margin. Safe Republican with McCain, Leaning Republican without.

California

Barbara Boxer, bane of Conservatives, scored 55% of the vote in 1998, good enough for an 11 point victory. Her chances are bolstered by the current misfortunes of the California Republican party, which was unable to defeat rabidly unpopular Governor Gray Davis and which was unable to get George Bush within spitting distance of Al Gore; Gore won California by nearly 12 points. Strongly Leaning Democrat.

Colorado

Ben Nighthorse Campbell, the popular Republican incumbent, will be 71 in 2004, and there is much speculation that he will retire. Democrats have been working hard to make Colorado more competitive; if Campbell does retire then the race will surely be closer than the 28% margin Campbell enjoyed. Fellow Republican Wayne Allard won reelection by over 5 points this past election cycle, and Bill Owens held the Governor's seat by over 20%. These margins, plus Bush's 8 point win in 2000, suggest that the Democrats still have some work to do. Safe Republican with Campbell, Strongly Leaning Republican without.

Connecticut

Democrat Chris Dodd handily won in 1998 with two thirds of the vote. While a Republican (John Rowland) just maintained his position as Governor of Connecticut, the state has been solidly Democrat in most regards over the past several election cycles. Safe Democrat.

Florida

Another election cycle, another opportunity for a Florida circus. Bob Graham, who will be 68 in 2004, was pretty popular when he ran in 1998. He won by a 25 point margin with 63% of the vote. However, Republicans believe that Graham is vulnerable, bolstered by the strong showing by Jeb Bush in his reelection campaign. Leaning Democrat.

Georgia

Although Democrat Zell Miller won election in 2000, this seat will be up again in 2004 since that was a special election following the appointment of Miller in the aftermath of Paul Coverdell's death. Zell is very popular (58% of the vote, for a 20 point margin) but will be 72 in 2004, and if he gets frustrated with the Democrats coming leftward turn he may not run. If he does, he will win but continue to be a vote the Republicans can occasionally sway. If he doesn't run, then the seat has to be considered a strong pickup possibility for the Republicans, given the statewide triumphs they scored in 2000. Safe Democrat with Miller, Leaning Republican without.

Hawaii

When an incumbent can get over 80% of the vote, it is pretty safe to say that he has a lock on the seat if he runs. Democrat Daniel Inouye is a Hawaii institution, but will be 80 in 2004 and may decide to call it a career. Hawaii just elected a Republican Governor but is still a markedly Democrat state (Gore won by 18 points). Safe Democrat with Inouye, Strongly Leaning Democrat without.

Iowa

Charles Grassley will be targetted by the Democrats considering that in the other Senate seat's race, the supposedly vulnerable Democrat Tom Harkin won by 10 points. However, Grassley didn't even sweat last time around, with well over two thirds of the vote and over 37 points of margin over his challenger. Considering that Gore barely carried Iowa, the Democrats are unlikely to topple the 71 year old Grassley, although it should be noted that both Harkin and Democrat Governor Vilsack carried healthy majorities in 2002. Strongly Leaning Republican.

Idaho

Incumbent Mike Crapo should have little difficulty securing another term for the Republicans. He received over 70% of the vote in 1998 in this Republican stronghold. Safe Republican.

Illinois

Probably the most vulnerable Republican Senator, Peter Fitzgerald won by under 3% of the vote in 1998 in a state which has been moving consistently towards the Democrats; in a night of Republican triumphs nationwide, Illinois went overwhelmingly towards the Democrats. Leaning Democrat.

Indiana

Evan Bayh's name was thrown about as a potential 2000 running mate for Al Gore, and he had won comfortably in this Republican state (65% of the vote). The Republicans are likely to be more aggressive going after this seat in 2004, sensing that some of his votes while the Democrats were in the majority will give them ammunition. Given that Bush trounced Gore by 15% in 2000, it is likely this race will be considerably closer than in 1998, although Bayh still must be considered the favorite. Leaning Democrat.

Kansas

Republican Sam Brownback drew over two thirds of the vote in 1998 in this strong Republican state. The Democrats did not even field a candidate for the other seat here against Pat Roberts, who had received less support in 1996 than Brownback did in 1998. Safe Republican.

Kentucky

One of the closest races in 1998 was the battle for this seat, which Republican Jim Bunning won by less than a percent. However, this time he will be running as an incumbent, and President Bush is very popular in Kentucky, which has been trending Republican in recent elections. Strongly Leaning Republican.

Louisiana

Democrat John Breaux is much more popular in the bayou than the endangered Mary Landrieu. While the Republicans will challenge, he will be less vulnerable to Bush's popularity due to the fact that he was strongly considered for a cabinet seat in the administration. This is Republican turf, but Breaux has found safe haven in the landscape anyway. Strongly Leaning Democrat.

Maryland

Democrat Barbara Mikulski faced token opposition in 1998, and received over 70% of the vote in this strong Democrat state. Mikulski, 68 in 2004, will face more of a challenge this time in the wake of Kennedy-Townsend's defeat for Maryland Governor, but that would still be a longshot. Safe Democrat.

Missouri

Missouri has been a battleground state for several elections, and the Democrats will make a run at knocking off Republican incumbent Kit Bond, who received less than 55% when he captured this seat in 1998 (a 9 point margin). However, Bond is considered to be a popular incumbent, and is likely to hold his position. Leaning Republican.

North Carolina

In the strange world of politics there can be some brain twisting paradoxes. Democrat John Edwards may be both one of the favorites to be the Democrat Presidential candidate in 2004, and one of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents. North Carolina is a battleground state with a Republican tint; the Democrats felt they could pick off Jesse Helms' seat but lost to Dole by double digits, and Gore fell to Bush by 13 points here. Edwards is not overly popular for an incumbent, and won by only 4 points in 1998 with barely 52% of the vote. If the Republicans can find a strong candidate here, this is a winnable seat for them. Leaning Democrat.

North Dakota

Democrat Byron Dorgan was not seriously challenged in 1998, and gathered nearly two thirds of the vote. Considering that Bush carried North Dakota by 28 points, the Republicans will be searching high and low for a worthy candidate to run. They may be able to make it a race, but it would definitely be an uphill battle. Strongly Leaning Democrat (and would be considered safe if not for how handily Bush won ND).

New Hampshire

While for a long time it appeared that the Republicans might lose one of their two New Hampshire Senate seats in 2002, John Sununu beat a very popular Democrat. As popular in New Hampshire as Sununu is, he is not as popular as the man who holds the other Senate seat, Judd Gregg. Gregg won over 70% of the vote in 1998, and should be able to beat whatever Democrat challenger comes his way. Strongly Leaning Republican.

Nevada

If Fitzgerald is the most endangered Republican, meet Harry Reid, the Democrat with the largest bullseye on his chest. Reid won in 1998 by only 459 votes, barely over a tenth of a percent. Bush won the state by 4%, and the Republicans held the Governor's slot with a strong showing in 2002. Leaning Republican.

New York

Republicans have faced uphill climbs in New York in recent years. Despite this, Democrat Chuck Schumer may be vulnerable. He did not break 55% in 1998, winning the seat by less than 10%. He still is a strong favorite. That is, unless the Republicans convince Rudy Guiliani to run. At this point in time, Guiliani would have to be favored in any election against any other candidate except George Bush. Strongly Leaning Democrat without Guiliani, Strongly Leaning Republican with.

Ohio

Former Governor George Voinovich may be less conservative than many Republicans, but he also has sufficient popularity to be considered a strong favorite to win in Ohio, a competitive state with Republican tendencies, much like North Carolina. He should be able to duplicate or improve on his 1998 showing of 56% of the vote. Strongly Leaning Republican.

Oklahoma

Incumbent Republican Don Nickles garnered over two thirds of the vote in 1998, and after losing the Governor's race in 2002 the Oklahoma Republican party is unlikely to be complacent. Safe Republican.

Oregon

Democrat Ron Wyden won relatively easily in 1998, and in this liberal state he appears positioned to repeat his victory. If the Republicans can convince Kevin Mannix to run, however, this could be an interesting race. Safe Democrat without Mannix, Leaning Democrat with.

Pennsylvania

Will Arlen Specter, who will be 74 in 2004, run again? If so, the inexplicably popular Scottish Law expert will hold the seat for the Republicans, who cannot be pleased with how well Democrats have been doing in recent elections. However, Governor-elect Ed Rendell won by a much smaller margin than had been predicted, despite his opponent running a horrible campaign. The Republicans have some talented (albeit moderate) candidates to run if Specter retires. Safe Republican with Specter, Leaning Republican without.

South Carolina

Rumor has it that the 80 year old Democrat incumbent Fritz Hollings will retire at the end of his term. Even if he doesn't, he will have a difficult time holding his seat in South Carolina, a state which has been trending more and more Republican each election. Hollings only secured 53% of the vote in 1998. Lindsey Graham just won an open seat in South Carolina for the Republicans by over 10 points, and George Bush carried South Carolina by 16 points. If Larry Sanders runs for the Democrats, he may start with some name recognition advantages, but this state appears ready to have two Republican Senators. Leaning Republican, regardless of what Hollings does.

South Dakota

Out of state Republicans find it difficult to believe, but Tom Daschle is popular in his home state. He won comfortably in 1998 with 63% of the vote, and his popularity (and the magic of mining for Indian Reservation votes) was enough to overcome the popularity of George Bush in this very Republican state. If Daschle runs, he will almost certainly win, even over the popular John Thune. However, it is quite possible that Daschle will decide to do something else, in which case this would be a surefire Republican pickup. Strongly Leaning Democrat with Daschle, Strongly Leaning Republican without.

Utah

With nearly two thirds of the vote in 1998, Republican Robert Bennett cruised to an easy victory in a state that the Democrats have shown no signs of life in for some time. Safe Republican.

Vermont

Democrat Incumbent Patrick Leahy is despised by Republicans nationwide, but there aren't enough Republicans in Vermont to do much about it. Despite Douglass pulling an upset and giving the GOP the Governorship in Vermont, this state is clearly a Democrat stronghold, and Leahy might not even face stiff competition. Safe Democrat.

Washington

While Republicans generally face long odds on the left(wing) coast, Washington has been fairly competitive lately. Maria Cantwell won by under 2,300 votes in 2000, and Gore won Washington by only 5 points. This seat is held by Democrat Patty Murray, who took 58% of the vote for a comfortable 17 point win. If the Republicans can find a decent candidate, they can make this race a lot closer than that. Even so, Murray is the favorite. Strongly Leaning Democrat.

Wisconsin

Russ Feingold acheived much fame with the Campaign Finance Reform bill which he co-sponsored with John McCain, and as such many consider him to be safer than he actually is. He won his seat in 1998 with only 51% of the vote (a 2 point margin) and Wisconsin is a state which has been very competitive between the parties in the last few elections. As the incumbent, he is the favorite, but given the strains that have been developing between the Democrats' Jewish and black factions, and given his soft numbers from 1998, he will face a strong challenge. Leaning Democrat.

Summary

I predict, depending upon who runs, there to be between 5-9 seats Safely Repubican, and between 3-6 seats Safely Democrat. Both parties will have between 4-7 seats Strongly Leaning their direction. The Republicans will have between 3-7 races Leaning their way, while the Democrats will have either 6 or 7 races Leaning their way. Those numbers by themselves would portend some gains by the Republicans, although a race-by-race analysis indicates that may be overstating the Republican chances.

Excluding the nine races where I suggested who runs will impact the categorization of the race to change, I have it as 5 Safe Republican seats to 3 Safe Democrat seats, 4 Strongly Leaning Republican Seats to 4 Strongly Leaning Democrat seats, and 3 Leaning Republican Seats to 6 Leaning Democrat seats. Of the nine excluded races, I have four that I have in the Republican column regardless (one of which at a minimum remains Strongly Leaning) and two that remain in the Democrat column (one of which also is a minimum of Strongly Leaning). Categorizing those six races in their most competitive position yields 5 Safe Republican seats to 3 Safe Democrat seats, 5 Strongly Leaning Republican seats to 5 Strongly Leaning Democrat seats, and 6 Leaning Republican seats to 7 Leaning Democrat seats.

The remaining three races include two that I do not see as being all that close, but which party will win depends on the decisions of two high-profile candidates; both of these races are in seats currently held by Democrats. Rudy Guiliani can win a seat away from the Democrats if he decides to run, and Tom Daschle can prevent a Republican gain by deciding to stay in the Senate. I consider both of these to be likely scenerios. Assuming both of these men to be running, then the races that I predict will not be overly competitive fall as 11 for the Republicans, 9 for the Democrats.

That leaves the remaining 14 races. Zell Miller in Georgia will likely decide one of those races. The remaining 13 will determine the fate of the Senate. The battlegrounds for 2004 have been set, and most of the swinging will likely take place in Alaska, Arizona, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. As the Democrats need to pretty much sweep all these races in order to make any Senate gains, it looks at this juncture like the Republicans are set to gain between 3 to 7 seats; unless, of course, circumstances unforeseen markedly change the political landscape by 2004-- and in politics, the unforeseen is almost likely to occur.

[mwl1]

Excellent post, and good suggestion. Unload Mineta, and put Zell Miller in there, Sonny Purdue installs a GOP senator.

Other than Nevada and one or two other races, I think we are benefited in 2004 only if there are a number of long overdue retirements - FL, SC, SD, GA, in particular.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Good work. However, even though you might think its not too early to start thinking about this, your own analysis indicates that it probably is. Much depends on who's running against who. We will know far more a year from now, but this is good information about the backdrop of the '04 elections.

Somehow, given what just happened and how things are trending now, I would think that the GOP stands to gain a little bit more than you might think. With so many seats to defend and outgunned in the campaign finances dept, right now I'm not putting any bets that the Rats can hold on to that many seats despite which states may appear to be safe or heavily leaning their way.

[AmishDude]

Pretty nice. You missed one piece of analysis which is essential for the 2004 elections that wasn't present for the 2002 elections. Any guess?

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

True, Bush running will also get out more voters, the vast majority of whom like him. This will also be a good thing. I think Nevada, ND, NC, Florida, and Indiana have to be big targets for '04. Think big, after all who had Cleland losing, 2 years ago?

[AmishDude]

Well, you answered my question: The top of the ticket. Assuming the Iraq war goes quickly and smoothly and the economy is humming by 2004 (nothing is for certain, but both are highly likely). Then, Bush will be so popular that he is sure to sweep in a few close Senate candidates.

The question is: Who will head up the Democrats' ticket? Anyone inspiring on the horizon? Gore? Edwards? Kerry? Hillary??? With the recent losses in 2002, Edwards is an increasingly strong possibility -- he's from the South (the Dems have to stop the bleeding there and relatively unknown. Gore already has high negatives (not to mention Hillary) and Kerry has too long a track record to be portrayed as anything but an über-liberal.

The last time we were in a situation like this was for the 1992 election. The Democrat rising stars didn't want to go against the (then) popular President GHW Bush, so they got the relatively unknown but long-serving Gov. Clinton to run. With Perot added to the mix, the fix was in and the 2-against-1 campaign damaged 41 irreparably.

So, is there a long-serving Democrat governor out there who might run in 2004? Or a (perceived) right-leaning spoiler? Otherwise, it'll be a rout, up and down the ticket.

[For the Unborn]

Mike Crapp=Mike Crapo (in Idaho)

[agincourt1415]

JEB BUSH could be the next Senator from Florida!

[AmishDude]

It's hard to say with Condi, because she doesn't have a typical politician's aspirations. I'm sure she'd be happy to be NSA for the rest of her life, but it may be stressful and she'd want to move on after one term. If she gets tired of public life, she'll be a University president anywhere she wants to go. Count on it, she's already been provost at Stanford.

The thing is, she'll have to quit NSA to run against Boxer, who she could beat. (Boxer has the disadvantage of being a complete moron.) But Feinstein is much tougher, even though the timing there would be better. I think the higher-ups in the Republican party are whispering "VPOTUS" or "POTUS" in her ear and it depends if she wants to listen or not.

[AmishDude]

The timing's off for Jeb. He was just elected governor for the second time. (That's it, he's term-limited.) Look for him to run against Bill Nelson in 2006.

[waterstraat]

If the economy, and the situation of jobs for native born american citizens, does not get better, it doesnt matter how things look on paper.

[varon]

BUMP

[AlguyA]

'What happens if Condi Rice runs for Senate in CA as a Rep? Bush is keeping Cheney as Veep. What if that is because Condi (who is from CA) prefers being Senator to Veep?"

Man, from your lips to God's (or,at least, Karl Rove's) ear.

[Constitution Day]

Interesting analyses... I will ping the lists.

[Constitution Day]

NC ping!

[Constitution Day]

Indexing to Edwards Watch...

[wimpycat]

I was meaning to mention on Election Night that Edwards is up for re-election during a presidential election year, in a state that is decisively pro-Republican as far as presidents are concerned. He'll be on the ticket along with President Bush.

Edwards won election in 1998, against a one-term incumbent who ran a weak campaign (Lauch Faircloth), during a time when the voters were pro-Democrat in defense of Clinton during the impeachment hearings.

I think if we can find a viable candidate, we can knock Edwards out of his seat, assuming President Bush is as popular in 2004 as he is in 2002.

[conservative_2001]

Overall, you're placing too much emphasis on the partisan nature of the state and not enough on the individual candidates. These last elections, with Republican wins in Massachusetts, Hawaii, Maryland, and Vermont, and Democratic wins in Tennessee, Wyoming, and Oklahoma, should indicate that the right candidates from either party can win in most states. I'll go through my main disagreements state by state.

Alaska - Murkowski ought to just appoint Congressman Young, which keeps this a Safe R seat.

Arizona - Safe Republican with McCain, Leaning Republican without.

There is no way that we could assume one party or the other would have an automatic advantage using only unnamed candidates. It's Safe R if McCain runs again, Tossup otherwise until we see who runs.

California - Strongly Leaning Democrat.

Boxer isn't very popular. It just Leans D for now. If Republicans can recruit a good candidate, it could go either way.

Colorado - Safe Republican with Campbell, Strongly Leaning Republican without.

Again, if this seat is open there is no way to say that this seat strongly leans in either direction using only unnamed candidates. It's a tossup if Campbell retires. If the Democrats run Congressman Udall, we have a race on our hands.

Florida - Leaning Democrat

Graham is very popular here. If he runs again he's a shoe-in. If not, it's a tossup.

Illinois - Leaning Democrat

Last time I saw favorable ratings taken, Fitzgerald's were as high as Durbin's. He's done a very good job politically while in the Senate. The seat Leans R for now.

Indiana - Leaning Democrat.

Again, way too much emphasis on the presidential votes. Bayh is a very popular incumbent. He won his election with over 60% of the vote his first time out. Safe D if he runs again.

North Dakota - Strongly Leaning Democrat

If former Governor Schafer runs it's a tossup. Otherwise it's Safe D. We need to recruit him.

Nevada - Leaning Republican

Reid is the incumbent, he's survived quality opponents before. He hasn't hurt his standing since his last election. If Congressman Gibbons runs, it's either a Tossup or Slight Lean D; otherwise it's Lean D.

New York - Strongly Leaning Democrat without Guiliani, Strongly Leaning Republican with

Schumer is a very popular Democrat in a Democratic state. Safe D if Guiliani doesn't run. Likely D if Guiliani does run. He won't run, he's too smart to bother trying to beta Schumer. If he does run for Senate it's 2006 against Hitlery.

[William McKinley]

and not enough on the individual candidates

Agreed. This is for the very valid (IMO) reason that in most cases we do not know who the individual candidates will be. This is a view of the landscape; nothing more, nothing less.

[William McKinley]

That said, I simply don't agree with your premise that you can't make a call as to which way a state leans if you don't know even one of the candidates. Clearly Colorado is a Republican leaning state. Can a Democrat win? Sure. Is it likely? More times than not, a Republican is going to win there.

Just like if Maryland's seat was suddenly an open seat election because Babs decided not to run, I would not call that a tossup. That seat would lean Democrat. When names change or are announced, the leanings can and will change, but for now, that is where they stand IMO

[Green Knight]

Gotta log off, so bumping for a later read.

Also, let's pray that Thune uncovers fraud and that Terrell wins. Those 2 in the Senate will put us closer to winning a 60 seat filibuster-proof majority in 2004.