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The Winning Strategy to Defeat Mary Landrieu (Election still runs hot in Louisiana)
The Washington Times ^ | November 10, 2002 | Hugh Aynesworth

Posted on 11/10/2002 12:45:54 AM PST by elenchus

Edited on 07/12/2004 3:58:40 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

NEW ORLEANS

(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...


TOPICS: Activism/Chapters; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: bush; election; landrieu; senate; terrell
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To: alligator; elenchus
Based upon the following Parish results it looks like a win is doable if the vote can be countered
in a few Parishes that seem to be strong for Landrieu... It will be interesting to see the strategy
as it developes...

Parish Results

Parish Raymond Brown John Cooksey Mary Landrieu Patrick E. "Live Wire" Landry James Lemann "Tony" Perkins Gary D. Robbins Ernest Edward Skillman, Jr. Suzanne Haik Terrell
Acadia, 65 of 65 358 2,516 6,991 67 19 2,001 26 29 4,619
Allen, 34 of 34 216 880 2,637 120 49 813 40 11 1,133
Ascension, 59 of 59 347 1,627 10,547 104 44 3,930 24 53 6,973
Assumption, 23 of 23 185 423 4,097 155 45 704 27 14 1,704
Avoyelles, 51 of 51 277 3,158 4,721 202 110 611 48 22 1,512
Beauregard, 47 of 47 198 1,258 2,692 118 32 1,958 17 13 1,919
Bienville, 29 of 29 131 838 2,573 101 40 283 17 8 1,086
Bossier, 55 of 55 384 4,580 10,871 227 61 2,307 41 18 8,504
Caddo, 152 of 152 1,900 8,830 36,767 253 83 4,255 79 82 18,045
Calcasieu, 110 of 110 1,665 4,635 24,073 251 82 8,917 107 70 13,126
Caldwell, 20 of 20 60 1,922 1,206 46 34 206 5 2 595
Cameron, 15 of 15 146 368 1,417 50 21 367 11 9 792
Catahoula, 34 of 34 144 1,772 1,898 87 54 220 34 10 505
Claiborne, 37 of 37 71 863 1,945 81 21 262 13 3 968
Concordia, 23 of 23 231 2,624 2,795 99 44 332 17 14 688
DeSoto, 46 of 46 154 971 3,642 105 16 415 17 13 1,747
East Baton Rouge, 298 of 298 1,863 8,606 55,609 298 105 21,186 117 86 34,421
East Carroll, 19 of 19 115 659 1,250 53 30 109 19 9 281
East Feliciana, 22 of 22 165 517 3,605 36 9 1,333 11 12 1,552
Evangeline, 61 of 61 264 2,242 3,971 185 97 728 43 19 2,144
Franklin, 33 of 33 120 2,211 2,134 69 59 427 22 6 1,246
Grant, 23 of 23 117 1,901 1,537 82 35 488 19 5 774
Iberia, 55 of 55 413 2,412 6,528 297 86 2,269 66 23 5,750
Iberville, 44 of 44 379 675 6,676 248 67 1,103 71 32 2,462
Jackson, 27 of 27 126 1,823 2,275 93 50 357 24 7 1,095
Jefferson, 261 of 261 1,092 11,647 48,207 396 118 7,199 129 120 47,291
Jefferson Davis, 45 of 45 228 1,070 3,397 105 45 1,174 21 10 2,118
Lafayette, 111 of 111 814 8,525 19,945 397 218 7,596 109 65 17,297
Lafourche, 66 of 66 405 1,957 11,621 283 126 1,992 57 29 7,400
LaSalle, 29 of 29 63 2,906 993 57 49 164 24 2 459
Lincoln, 45 of 45 173 3,569 4,786 121 42 986 21 10 2,373
Livingston, 53 of 53 467 2,564 8,801 237 78 6,775 44 24 8,591
Madison, 25 of 25 132 969 1,511 72 31 188 9 5 547
Morehouse, 32 of 32 150 3,040 3,251 106 74 543 37 8 1,369
Natchitoches, 54 of 54 222 1,784 4,945 146 55 931 21 10 2,145
Orleans, 442 of 442 2,468 4,469 94,811 480 218 2,455 166 138 21,170
Ouachita, 79 of 79 396 15,745 14,139 334 174 3,236 57 23 7,784
Plaquemines, 25 of 25 224 581 4,711 79 21 423 18 38 3,466
Pointe Coupee, 24 of 24 138 625 4,099 222 33 912 29 7 1,660
Rapides, 106 of 106 641 12,295 14,667 515 205 3,105 112 37 5,997
Red River, 20 of 20 114 387 1,926 105 28 231 21 14 749
Richland, 23 of 23 114 2,081 2,315 90 34 385 18 5 1,380
Sabine, 42 of 42 201 1,641 1,983 83 42 526 19 15 1,061
St. Bernard, 41 of 41 210 1,285 7,792 105 33 913 22 16 7,430
St. Charles, 46 of 46 208 1,505 6,034 168 42 823 31 19 5,187
St. Helena, 15 of 15 118 384 2,228 141 23 423 25 13 683
St. James, 28 of 28 227 461 5,035 174 27 563 31 12 1,799
St. John the Baptist, 36 of 36 213 607 5,892 324 57 1,095 34 12 3,063
St. Landry, 85 of 85 735 2,600 12,622 123 67 1,525 49 49 6,392
St. Martin, 47 of 47 340 1,764 6,075 270 79 1,560 36 27 3,405
St. Mary, 62 of 62 372 1,906 6,430 227 60 1,407 46 27 3,813
St. Tammany, 131 of 131 423 7,196 17,444 155 58 5,648 65 62 26,955
Tangipahoa, 80 of 80 448 2,533 10,448 138 50 2,354 43 90 8,284
Tensas, 27 of 27 43 568 913 40 19 127 3 2 351
Terrebonne, 103 of 103 506 2,239 10,833 283 83 2,176 56 44 8,157
Union, 46 of 46 122 2,810 2,263 67 44 414 11 5 1,290
Vermilion, 62 of 62 298 2,356 6,461 116 58 1,478 19 12 3,969
Vernon, 54 of 54 322 2,177 4,118 197 60 1,222 28 29 1,625
Washington, 54 of 54 281 1,316 5,391 242 84 890 42 25 3,047
Webster, 43 of 43 230 1,778 6,425 171 41 885 20 69 3,372
West Baton Rouge, 19 of 19 149 405 3,541 29 2 829 8 3 1,892
West Carroll, 18 of 18 51 1,441 889 49 46 180 7 6 656
West Feliciana, 22 of 22 88 469 2,061 116 17 594 8 7 1,003
Winn, 29 of 29 95 1,786 1,887 54 32 268 12 9 636

21 posted on 11/10/2002 9:40:45 AM PST by deport
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To: deport
Has anyone compiled cumulative numbers for all Republican/conservative candidates, and what can be reasonably expected? From your table, I cannot tell which will be backing Terrell.

I'd appreciate whatever link anyone can provide.
22 posted on 11/10/2002 9:47:23 AM PST by elenchus
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To: elenchus
There were two Democrats... Landrieu and Brown,
three independents... Landry, Lemman, Robbins
Four Republicans... Terrell, Cooksey, Perkins, Skillman


U. S. Senator
3,912 of 3,912 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
23,550 2% Raymond Brown -
171,752 14% John Cooksey -
573,347 46% Mary Landrieu -
10,444 1% Patrick E. "Live Wire" Landry -
3,866 0% James Lemann -
119,776 10% "Tony" Perkins -
2,423 0% Gary D. Robbins -
1,668 0% Ernest Edward Skillman, Jr. -
339,507 27% Suzanne Haik Terrell -



23 posted on 11/10/2002 9:55:25 AM PST by deport
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To: deport
Another take on the race from this article.........

[excerpt]

BATON ROUGE - Louisiana Democrats have a longstanding formula for winning a statewide race: get 95 percent of the black vote and 30 percent of the white vote, and you're in.

But the only way that formula works is if Democrats can get high-profile black leaders to use their organizations to get black voters to the polls on behalf of their candidates.

That did not happen in Tuesday's U.S. Senate primary election and will be a key issue for U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu to address if she hopes to retain her seat in the Dec. 7 runoff.

"If Mary had gotten the African-American vote that (U.S. Rep.) Chris John got, she would have won," said U.S. Sen. John Breaux, also a Democrat, in a post-election analysis.

To win in the runoff, Landrieu must meet with those black leaders who were lukewarm to her in the primary, Breaux said, specifically mentioning state Sens. Cleo Fields,

D-Baton Rouge, Greg Tarver, D-Shreveport, and Don Cravins, D-Lafayette.

Fields, who ran against Landrieu and beat her early in the 1993 governor's race, did nothing in the primary, and at this point says he's not sure what he will do with his organization in the runoff. "I don't know if I will be up and running on election day," Fields said.

His beef is that Landrieu and white Democrats in general "take the black vote for granted," Fields said. He also was turned off by Landrieu's running commercials talking about her support for Republican President George Bush.


24 posted on 11/10/2002 10:01:07 AM PST by deport
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To: deport
This is AMAZING!

According to the vote totals you provided above for Republicans:

14% John Cooksey
10% "Tony" Perkins
27% Suzanne Haik Terrell

the Republican votes total over 50% !!!!!

Every Republican and Conservative needs to get the information that this race is eminently winnable. I hope someone will make sure that this information gets to the press services and the Terrell campaign--and out to the public. I suspect that very few people know about these numbers.

Everyone send your contributions...the most you can! Time is short, so act now!
25 posted on 11/10/2002 10:11:08 AM PST by elenchus
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To: elenchus
How can you play political hardball with a man who has no desire to be in office in just over a year. He's done with public life as far as he's concerned. He doesn't care what threats are made.
26 posted on 11/10/2002 10:22:42 AM PST by Bogey78O
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To: deport
Having checked it LAndrieu really only took 18 parishes. The rest were Republican
27 posted on 11/10/2002 10:24:42 AM PST by Bogey78O
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To: elenchus
Coksey's throwing a temper tantrum and he's no longer for Terrell because someone launched an attack on him just before the election and for some reason with no proof he thinks Terrell was behind it.
28 posted on 11/10/2002 10:26:10 AM PST by Bogey78O
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To: elenchus

LOL... you can bet the campaigns in LA know what these numbers are. They aren't stupid or unaware of the situation. The major factor/key will be turnout and from what groups the turnout derives.

29 posted on 11/10/2002 10:29:16 AM PST by deport
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To: Bogey78O
That's not an unreasonable assumption on Cooksey's part. She was the one who stood to benefit.
30 posted on 11/10/2002 10:30:47 AM PST by kms61
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To: Bogey78O
I haven't checked it that way but I don't think she won 18 parishes when you combine all the Republican vote versus hers, did she?
31 posted on 11/10/2002 10:34:44 AM PST by deport
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To: deport
Landrieu only took the majority in about 18 parishes. The rest went Republican. Check it.
32 posted on 11/10/2002 10:38:28 AM PST by Bogey78O
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To: deport
"the key...will be turnout"

You are right. The thing that bothers me is that Terrell has no turnout operation that I am aware of. She did not even have an office in New Orleans in the primary. In 1996, when he narrowly missed defeating Landrieu, Woody Jenkins had a huge phone bank in New Orleans which turned out a great vote both in the primary and in the general election. As far as I know, none of the veterans of this GOTV effort have been approached by the Terrell campaign to replicate the effort for her. I think it is absolutely essential to offset the shenanigans by Foster and Cooksey. I wish they would make this move and quit worrying about these endorsements.

33 posted on 11/10/2002 10:38:52 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
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To: kms61
Not really. The flyers were saying he was a closet Dem. An excellent strategy if you simply want to suppress turnout in areas he's strong in.
34 posted on 11/10/2002 10:39:50 AM PST by Bogey78O
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To: Brices Crossroads
Maybe Terrell will allow the NRC or some others to bring in support even if it is below the radar screen to help in this effort. I suspect turnout may not have been the big thing during the Nov. 5 race but rather just trying to hold on and get better name recognition. I suspect they knew that they couldn't win outright and were hoping for enough supporters of the other candidates to come out and force it to a runoff.

I'm not sure how national help/efforts will play this time. I'm sure some will help but then too much may turn off the voters. I suspect the voters don't want to feel like they are being exploited by either side.

35 posted on 11/10/2002 10:44:56 AM PST by deport
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To: deport
There is so little time for a national group to try to set up a phone bank operation. They do not really know Louisiana that well. If I were her, I would try to resurrect the old operation that almost did it for Jenkins and count on lower turnout and the presence of the President to make her invincible. I just don't think the national party can put together a ground operation in Louisiana, especially on short notice. Anyway, whatever Terrell decides, good luck to her!
36 posted on 11/10/2002 11:26:21 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
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To: elenchus
Another article, which appeared in Sunday's New Orlean's paper.

http://www.nola.com/news/ataglance/t-p/nov10.ssf?/nov10/lasenate10.html
37 posted on 11/10/2002 12:00:56 PM PST by Gunder
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To: Gunder
Republican Gov. Mike Foster on Thursday refused to support the Republican challenger in her bid to unseat Mrs. Landrieu. Also, Republican Rep. John Cooksey, who finished third with 14 percent in Tuesday's election, has said he will not provide assistance to Mrs. Terrell's campaign.

What a bunch of babies. I swear, politicians are such pigs.

38 posted on 11/10/2002 12:10:11 PM PST by Wphile
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To: Wphile
Yeah, we've got some real pricks in our party, no doubt about it.
39 posted on 11/10/2002 2:40:38 PM PST by Gunder
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To: alligator
One fact that favors us in this runoff is the fact that the election, being held on Saturday December 7

Most of the Democrat base will be too hungover on a sat. to get out and vote.

40 posted on 11/10/2002 2:46:30 PM PST by TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig
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