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Smith Table for Matches for Air India Flight 182, Pan Am Flight 103, United Airlines Flight 811, Trans World Airlines Flight 800, and China Airlines Flight 611 |
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| Evidence |
AI 182 (Forward Cargo Door) |
PA103 (Forward Cargo Door) |
UAL 811 (Forward Cargo Door) |
TWA 800 (Forward Cargo Door) |
China Airlines Flight 611 (Aft Cargo Door) |
| Boeing 747 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Early model -100 or -200 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Overpressure relief door(s) in forward cargo door open/jammed | Maybe | Yes | Yes | Yes | Missing in Aft Cargo Door |
| Sudden airframe breakup in flight (partial or total) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Breakup occurs amidships | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No, aft of wing. |
| High flight time (over 55,000 flight hours) | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Aged airframe (over 18 years of service) | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Previous maintenance problems with forward cargo door | Yes | Maybe | Yes | Maybe | Unknown |
| Initial event within an hour after takeoff | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Initial event at about 300 knots while proceeding normally in all parameters | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Initial event has unusual radar contacts | Maybe | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Initial event involves hull rupture in or near forward cargo door area | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | In or near aft cargo door |
| Initial event starts with sudden sound | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Initial event sound is loud | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
| Initial event sound is audible to humans | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Initial event followed immediately by abrupt power cut to data recorder | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No, FDR cut first, then CVR power |
| Initial event sound matched to explosion of bomb sound | No | No | No | No | No |
| AI 182 | PA103 | UAL 811 | TWA 800 | China Airlines Flight 611 | |
| Initial event sound matched to explosive decompression sound in wide body airliner | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes, Rapid Decompression |
| Torn off skin on fuselage above forward cargo door area | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes for aft door |
| Unusual paint smears on and above forward cargo door | Maybe | Maybe | Yes | Yes | Unknown |
| Evidence of explosion in forward cargo compartment | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Unknown in aft |
| Foreign object damage to engine or cowling of engine number three | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Unknown |
| Fire/soot in engine number three |
Maybe |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Unknown |
| Foreign object damage to engine or cowling of engine number four |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Unknown |
| Right wing leading edge damaged in flight | Yes | Maybe | Yes | Maybe | Unknown |
| Vertical stabilizer damaged in flight | Yes | Yes | Yes | Maybe | Yes |
| AI 182 | PA103 | UAL 811 | TWA 800 | China Airlines Flight 611 | |
| Right horizontal stabilizer damaged in flight |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Unknown |
| More severe inflight damage on starboard side than port side |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Unknown |
| Port side relatively undamaged by inflight debris |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Unknown |
| Vertical fuselage tear lines just aft or forward of the forward cargo door |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes for aft cargo door |
| Fracture/tear/rupture at a midspan latch of forward cargo door |
Maybe |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Unknown |
| Midspan latching status of forward cargo door reported as latched |
No |
No |
No |
No |
Unknown |
| Airworthiness Directive 88-12-04 implemented (stronger lock sectors) |
No |
No |
No |
Yes |
Unknown |
| Outwardly peeled skin on upper forward fuselage |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Unknown |
| Rectangular shape of shattered area around forward cargo door |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Unknown |
| Forward cargo door fractured in two longitudinally |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Maybe |
Yes for aft cargo door |
| Status of aft cargo door as intact and latched | Yes | Yes | Yes | Maybe | No |
| AI 182 | PA103 | UAL 811 | TWA 800 | China Airlines Flight 611 | |
| Passengers suffered decompression type injuries | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Unknown |
| At least nine missing and never recovered passenger bodies | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Wreckage debris field in two main areas, forward and aft sections of aircraft |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
| Initial official opinion of probable cause as bomb explosion. |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No and considered |
| Initial official determination modified from bomb explosion |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
| AI 182 | PA103 | UAL 811 | TWA 800 | China Airlines Flight 611 | |
| Structural failure considered for probable cause |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
| Inadvertently opened forward cargo door considered for probable cause |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes for aft cargo door |
| Official probable cause as bomb explosion |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
Unknown |
| Official probable cause as 'improvised explosive device' |
No |
Yes |
No |
No |
Unknown |
| Official probable cause as explosion by unstated cause |
Yes |
No |
No |
No |
Unknown |
| Official probable cause as explosion in center fuel tank with unknown ignition source | No | No | No | Yes | Unknown |
| Official probable cause as improper latching of forward cargo door | No | No | Yes | No | Unknown |
| Official probable cause as switch /wiring inadvertently opening forward cargo door |
No |
No |
Yes |
No |
Unknown |
| Significant Direct and Tangible Evidence Obtained for Four B747 Breakups in Flight |
AI 182 |
PA103 |
UAL 811 |
TWA 800 |
China Airlines Flight 611 |