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Why the GOP Won the Close Calls [Interesting Analysis]
BusinessWeek ^ | 11/06/2002 | Richard S. Dunham

Posted on 11/06/2002 7:23:20 AM PST by Grover_Cleveland

Edited on 04/13/2004 2:16:34 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

Election 2002 boils down to this: It was a terrible night for the Democrats. Heck, it was a terrible year. It was a terrific night for the Republicans. And President Bush is the undisputed heavyweight champ of American politics -- for now.


(Excerpt) Read more at businessweek.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: senate
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1 posted on 11/06/2002 7:23:20 AM PST by Grover_Cleveland
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To: Grover_Cleveland
Money matters. Democrats had argued that they had enough money to counterattack the barrage of TV ads from the GOP and its business allies. Well, you can never have enough money in politics. With a few exceptions, the candidate spending more money in the 2002 election ended up victorious. In close races, that was almost always the Republican.

Lie. For instance, Shaheen outspent Sununu 2 to 1. And Simon gave Davis a run for the money despite being outspent 7 to 1.

2 posted on 11/06/2002 7:31:40 AM PST by ikka
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To: Grover_Cleveland
With a few exceptions, the candidate spending more money in the 2002 election ended up victorious. In close races, that was almost always the Republican.

Good article. But I think, like most observers, it overplays the importance of money at least a bit, and should at least note some of the exceptions. In the Governor's races in Texas and Florida, the Dem challengers (Sanchez and McBride) spent huge money (like $30 million of Sanchez' own money!), and Dems put a lot of people into those races as well (for their symbolism re George W Bush), yet lost by huge margins (58/40 in Texas, 56/43 in Florida).

If the Dems had put all that effort into the toss-up Senate races, which came in close even in final numbers, they'd probably still control the Senate. Terry McAulliffe (sp?) screwed up bad.

3 posted on 11/06/2002 7:35:26 AM PST by DWPittelli
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To: ikka
great minds think alike!
4 posted on 11/06/2002 7:37:05 AM PST by DWPittelli
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To: Grover_Cleveland
If the Dems got any good news, it's that a swing of a couple of hundred thousand votes would have given them complete control of Congress. So with some new leaders and a return to the fundamentals of politics, they could be back in the ballgame in 2004.

Or, with a little more attention to vote fraud, registering illegal aliens and dead people, convincing corrupt judges to keep the polls open longer in heavily Dem precints (because of "running out of ballots"), having some more airplanes fall out of the sky, sending 10,000 more lawyers to court, citing voter intimidation where none exists, sending more "helpers" into the voting booths to make sure that voters look for the right "union label", and "fixing" some more voting machines to record Dem votes even if they have been cast for Republicans, they could be back in the ballgame in 2004.

5 posted on 11/06/2002 7:39:02 AM PST by The Electrician
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To: Grover_Cleveland
I also think we need to consider demographics. I am interest to know just what the effect of the loss of long term Roosevelt democrats from the party base is doing. The new democrats seem to be far left leaners. Are the demoRATS losing the middle to the Republicans? Klintoon won because he betrayed the far left and slid like the greased pig he was into the center. The wacko left of the Rat party is getting more and more strident. Can anyone opine as to the effect of the rising left will have on the RATS.
6 posted on 11/06/2002 7:42:44 AM PST by Dogrobber
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To: Grover_Cleveland
And Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe made some strategic blunders. Imagine if the party had spent less on hopeless but symbolic races in Florida and Texas and had instead funneled more money to New Hampshire, Colorado, Georgia, and all those close House races won by the GOP.

Not that I have much use for McAwful, but surely those decisions were the Clintons'. The ghoulfest in Minneapolis too.

7 posted on 11/06/2002 7:44:06 AM PST by aristeides
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To: Grover_Cleveland; Brandonmark
Would like to take this opportunity to give kudo's to Karl Rove who took a lot of hits about our candidates. He was right -- we had good candidates and it showed up yesterday!

And our President was fantastic on the campaign trail along with the Vice President! We have very fortunate as Republicans to have such a duo in office.

Had four things I really wanted to happen yesterday --

1. Tom Cole to win OK 4th District (J.C.'s Seat) After spending many hours volunteering it all paid off with the win of Tom Cole last night! He is now Congressman-elect Tom Cole!

2. Jeb Bush to win big in Florida and validate the 2000 election! Well Jeb did win big!

3. Take Back the Senate -- we sure did that! Thanks to everyone on here for putting up with my ping list and getting out to support and volunteer for our candidates nationwide.

4. Keep the House -- we did that too! Ditto what I said for the Senate!

And I will throw in a number 5. for my State Representative Thad Balkman, the absolute best State Representative you could ever ask for!

Thanks to all! We did it!

PKM
8 posted on 11/06/2002 7:45:08 AM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: Dogrobber
The RATs are going into the political wilderness, like the Republicans in the 30's and 40's and like British Labour under Thatcher. Right now they're going to the loony left, but three or four cycles in the wilderness will sober them up.
9 posted on 11/06/2002 7:46:47 AM PST by aristeides
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To: Grover_Cleveland
This is perhaps the biggest and most meaningful GOP victory since Reagan....

1) The Supreme Court, need I say more.

2) Bush's federal judgeships will now proceed!

3) The Dems were repudiated in ssuch a sweet way: McCauliffe should resign which lessons the Clintoon influence on the National Dem Party and hopefully sinks Hitlery's future aspirations.

4) One of the best things: Mondale loses proving that dancing on the grave of a dead fellow Deomcrat and having Klintoon smiling and laughing during the memorial is simply too much for the electorate to stomach. Congrats to Minnesota!

5) The best job in the world? I'd say that goes to the person who gets to throw Dashole out of his office and move him and Jeffords into the broom cloest in the basement.

6) Lousenberg?? Sheesh, this geezer is too old to even take Dem orders. He'll spend his time drooling ath the D.C. steakhouses.

7) Saxby Chambliss over Cleland, that's a big one right up there with Sununu winning in N.H.

NOW, Bush and Congress have two years to prove that they deserve this. Someone should tell the future Senate Majority leader that we are not sharing power, we're moving forward with the many things the Dems have stalled.

10 posted on 11/06/2002 7:49:33 AM PST by 1Old Pro
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To: ikka
Sununu was outspent twice-- in the primary and general.
11 posted on 11/06/2002 7:53:40 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative
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To: DWPittelli
If the Dems had put all that effort into the toss-up Senate races, which came in close even in final numbers, they'd probably still control the Senate. Terry McAulliffe (sp?) screwed up bad.

His head is in the gutter. He forgot that sometimes integrity counts. He screamed about the republicans going after the Wellstone's at the memorial (the really did not) but when the polls turned against the dems, HE QUICKLY blamed the Wellstone family. Last night and again today, he has blamed the Wellstone family for all of the democrats' woes. How quickly he turns on his own!

12 posted on 11/06/2002 7:54:05 AM PST by cinFLA
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To: Grover_Cleveland
Just can't let this slide by without comment:

. . . In Colorado, Religious Right voters favored Republican Wayne Allard over Democrat Tom Strickland, 85% to 12%, according to Fox News election day polls.

After just finishing Ann Coulter's book, "Slander," I'd like to know, and perhaps Business Week's Richard S. Dunham or maybe Fox News can answer this for me: Is there a membership list of the "Religious Right?" Who are these people and how does one select them in order to poll them?

Perhaps when they mention the "Religious Right," they mean Americans who occasionally attend church services? Or perhaps the "Religious Right" consists of the entire Republican party? I'd really like to know who these people are and how one becomes a member.

13 posted on 11/06/2002 7:59:46 AM PST by Auntie Mame
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To: Grover_Cleveland
And Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe made some strategic blunders. Imagine if the party had spent less on hopeless but symbolic races in Florida and Texas and had instead funneled more money to New Hampshire, Colorado, Georgia, and all those close House races won by the GOP.

It seemed like McAuliffe so bitter about the Florida loss that he lost the big picture. After 9/11 his mantra that Bush lost the Presidency didn't go over with the voters. 9/11 cemented Bush being OUR president.

14 posted on 11/06/2002 8:04:32 AM PST by AUsome Joy
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To: Dogrobber
It's awfully hard to predict long trends in wartime, but I think the left will continue to fall apart before it recovers.

The bottom line is that the hard left base is fundamentally anti-American by any objective standard: Anti-defense, anti-capitalism, anti-Constitution.

Clinton gave the Dems a reprieve on their reckoning with reality. He managed to appease the marxist base while winning elections in the center. No one else in the Democratic fold has the ability to pull that off. There are deep conflicts between the vision of leftists and that of mainstream Americans.

The Dems will either find a way to conduct fraud at greater scales, or they will have to find someone who can mask the socialist agenda as well as Clinton. I don't think changing their spots is an option for the Dems.

15 posted on 11/06/2002 8:07:35 AM PST by Monti Cello
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To: ikka
And Simon gave Davis a run for the money despite being outspent 7 to 1.

You bet, actually this is a huge victory for California, as Davis out spent Simon by a huge margin, yet barely won the election. This is very revealing in itself.

16 posted on 11/06/2002 8:11:30 AM PST by Joe Hadenuf
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To: Monti Cello
bookmark bump
17 posted on 11/06/2002 8:15:15 AM PST by lepton
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To: Joe Hadenuf
You bet, actually this is a huge victory for California, as Davis out spent Simon by a huge margin, yet barely won the election. This is very revealing in itself.

If Davis still has aspirations for national office perhaps after this election he'll realize he needs to move waaay rightward during the next four years. I can hope.

18 posted on 11/06/2002 8:16:23 AM PST by skeeter
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To: Grover_Cleveland
Morality matters.

Prayer matters.

19 posted on 11/06/2002 8:17:02 AM PST by The Truth Will Make You Free
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To: Grover_Cleveland
Democrats didn't spend enough in Colorado? I couldn't eat, sleep, or go to the bathroom without hearing about how Independent and Freedom minded the Communist Tom Strickland was. Strickland lost not because the Democrats didn't commit enough, but because he is Evil, and we saw it.
20 posted on 11/06/2002 8:19:19 AM PST by CyberSpartacus
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