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The MSNBC/Zogby International Final Results Tracking Poll tracked key elections in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Dakota and Texas. A final results poll will be released Election night. For the final results poll, leaners are factored in and Undecideds are eliminated in key races. *Please correctly attribute any information from the following polls to their proper survey source. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arkansas - MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby Poll - Governor. Survey conducted of 507 likely voters statewide Nov. 2 - 4 Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
Mike Huckabee (Republican) 49 50 51 54
Jimmie Lou Fisher (Democrat) 37 40 40 44
Not Sure 12 10 7 -
Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored in, the race stands at: (Huckabee 50%, Fisher 41%, Undecided 8%). Huckabee leads Fisher in Little Rock (54% - 44%) and in Northwest Arkansas (62% - 37%). The two remained tied in the rest of the state (Huckabee 50%, Fisher 49%). Fisher leads among Democrats (76% - 23%) while Huckabee leads among Republicans (93% - 6%) and Independents (63% - 34%). Huckabee leads among men (58% - 41%) and among women (51% -47%).
Arkansas - MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby Poll - Senate Survey conducted of 507 likely voters statewide Nov. 2-4, 2002 Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
Tim Hutchinson (Republican) 43 45 44 43
Mark Pryor (Democrat) 45 45 55 56
Not Sure 12 9 - -
Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners not factored in, the race stands at: (Pryor 53%, Hutchinson 41%, Undecided 5%). Pryor leads in Little Rock (56% - 43%), in the Northwest portion of the state (52% - 48%) and in the rest of the state (60% - 40%). Pryor leads among Democrats (85% - 15%) while Hutchinson leads among Republicans (93% - 7%). Pryor leads among Independents (58% - 40%) when last month Hutchinson led (49% - 39%). Pryor leads among men (55% - 45%) and women (59% - 41%). Less than a majority (40%) say that Hutchinson deserves re-election and 51% say it is time for someone new.
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks like Pryor triumphs by trouncing Hutchinson among Indpendents. Here's another case where 401k holders voted against the incumbent."
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Colorado - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 2-4 of 507 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
Wayne Allard (Republican) 42 40 44 46
Tom Strickland (Democrat) 42 41 53 51
Rick Stanley (Libertarian) - 5 3 2
Not sure 12 13 - -
Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored in the race stands: (Strickland 49%, Allard 44%, Stanley 2% Undecided 5%). Strickland leads Allard among Denver area voters (55% - 43%) and Southeast voters (52% - 48%). Allard continues to lead Strickland among Northwest voters (52% - 46%). Strickland leads among Democrats (77% - 22%) and Independents (67% - 31%), while Allard leads among Republicans (82% - 15%). Allard leads among men (51% - 47%) while Strickland leads among women (56% - 42%). Less than half (44%) continue to say Allard deserves re-election compared to 49% who say it is time for someone new.
Pollster John Zogby: "Looks to me like Strickland will win this, though it has tightened again. Allard's re-elect numbers where never good and interestingly, while 401K-holders voted solidly Republican in 2000, the two candidates tied among this group - advantage Strickland."
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Georgia - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted of 600 likely voters statewide Nov. 3-4. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%
Nov. 2 Final Results
Max Cleland (Democrat) 49 50
Saxby Chambliss(Republican) 49 48
Sandy Thomas (Libertarian) 2 1
Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored in, the race stands (Cleland 46% - Chamblinss 44%, Undecided 9%.) Cleland takes a short lead over Chambliss in Atlanta (51% - 47%) when just days ago the two were deadlocked (Cleland 49%, Chambliss 49%). The two are virtually tied among voters in the Northern part of the state (Cleland 49%, Chambliss 51%), and in the Southern part of the state (Cleland 50% - Chambliss 48%). Cleland leads among Democrats (92% - 7%), while Chambliss leads among Republicans (95% - 6%). Cleland now leads among Independents (58% - 39%) when just days ago, Chambliss led (62% - 33%). The two are tied among men (Chambliss 50%, Cleland 49%) while Cleland leads among women (52% - 47%). Less than half (45%) say Cleland deserves re-election while 48% say it is time for someone new.
Pollster John Zogby: "A big surprise because this race was on the watch list, then off, then on again. This one is truly too close to call, but more voters think it is time for someone new than feel that Cleland deserves re-election. Here's another race where 401K-holders vote against the incumbent."
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Minnesota - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted of 601 likely voters statewide Nov. 3-4. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
Walter Mondale (Democrat) (Wellstone) 41 (Wellstone) 46 50 51
Norm Coleman (Republican) 47 37 45 45
Jim Moore (Independence) 2 6 3 2
Ray Tricomo (Green) 1 1 - 2
Not sure 8 10 - -
Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners are not factored in, the race stands: (Mondale 49%, Coleman 44%, Moore 2%, Tricomo 2%, Undecided 3%). Mondale and Coleman are tied among voters in Minneapolis/St. Paul (Mondale 48%, Coleman 47%) when just days ago,Mondale led Coleman (52% - 46%). Mondale leads among voters in the North (65% - 32%). Coleman leads among voters in the South (51% - 46%). The two are now tied among voters in the Central region (Mondale 45%, Coleman 45%). Mondale leads among Democrats (95% - 4%) while Coleman leads among Republicans (95% - 4%). Mondale has a slight lead among Independents (46% - 43%). Mondale now leads among men (50% - 46%) when just a few days ago Coleman led (53% - 42%). Mondale leads among women (52% - 44%).
Pollster John Zogby: "Despite the President's best efforts, looks like Mondale holds on."
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Missouri - MSNBC/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 3-4 of 600 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
Jean Carnahan (Democrat) 48 41 49 45
Jim Talent (Republican) 40 47 48 53
Daniel "Digger" Romano (Green) 0 0 1 1
Tamara Millay (Libertarian) 1 1 1 1
Not Sure 10 10 - -
Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored the race stands at: (Talent 50%, Carnahan 43%, Romano 1%, Millay 1%, Undecided 5%).Carnahan and Talent are now tied among St. Louis voters (Carnahan 48%, Talent 50%) when days ago Caranhan led (56% - 43%). Talent continues to lead among voters throughout the rest of the state (54% - 44%). Carnahan leads among Democrats (89% - 10%) and Talent leads among Republicans (95% - 5%), but Talent leads among Independents (54% - 39%). Carnahan leads among women (53% - 44%) while Talent continues to hold a strong lead among men (61% - 37%).
Pollster John Zogby: "Carnahan's re-elect was poor and she loses by 21 points among 401K-holders. Looks like Talent wins this one."
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New Jersey - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 2-4 of 527 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
Frank Lautenberg (Democrat) (*Torricelli)39 48 54 55
Douglas Forrester (Republican) 34 36 38 42
John "Ted" Glick (Green) 3 1 5 2
Liz Macron (Libertarian) 2 1 1 1
Not Sure 21 12 - -
*Withdrew from the campaign.
Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners not factored in, the race stands at: (Lautenberg 49%, Forrester 38%, Glick 2%, Macron 1%, Undecided 9%). Lautenburg leads Forrester among voters in the North (59% - 37%) and in the South (53% - 42%). Lautenburg also leads Forrester in the Central part of the state (52% - 47%). Lautenburg leads among Democrats (92% - 5%) while Forrester leads among Republicans (81% - 18%). Forrester now leads among Independents (53% - 40%) when just days ago, Lautenberg led (51% - 28%).
Pollster John Zogby: "Voters simply never found Forrester."
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- North Carolina - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 2-4 of 525 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%
Sept. 21 Nov. 2 Final Results
Elizabeth Dole (Republican) 55 52 53
Erskine Bowles (Democrat) 32 46 43
Sean Haugh (Libertarian) 1 3 4
Not sure 11 - -
Behind the numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners not factored in the race stands at: (Dole 46%, Bowles 39%, Haugh 4%). Dole leads Bowles in Greensboro (59% - 36%), in Charlotte (51% - 46%), and in the Western portion of the state (69% - 30%). Bowles leads among voters in the East (46% - 44%) and among voters in the Raleigh/Durham area (54% - 45%). Dole leads amongwhites (62% - 34%) while Bowles leads among African Americans (83% - 17%). Dole leads among men (59% - 35%) while Bowles leads among women (51% - 47%).
Pollster John Zogby: "A roller-coaster ride in this campaign. At one point this became a four-point race. But it looks like Dole has run the clock out as her lead grows over the last couple days."
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- South Dakota - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 3-4 of 500 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
Tim Johnson (Democrat) 46 43 52 47
John Thune (Republican) 43 45 47 52
Kurt Evans (Libertarian) 2 3 1 1
Not Sure 10 10 -
Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners are not factored in the race stands: (Johnson 44%, Thune 48%, Evans 1%, Undecided 7%): Thune leads Johnson among voters in the West 55% - 43%) and in the Central region (54% - 45%), while the two are virtually tied in the East (Johnson 49%, Thune 50%). Johnson leads among Democrats (86% - 12%) while Thune leads among Republicans (79% - 21%). Thune leads among Independents (52% - 48%). Thune leads among men (58% - 41%), while Johnson leads among women (53% - 46%).
Pollster John Zogby: "Thune has pulled ahead by virtue of the President's last minute visit. President Bush has a 79% favorability rating in South Dakota while Tom Daschle has a 62% rating. Bottom line is more voters believe Johnson does not deserve to be re-elected. Among 401K- owners, Thune has a 52% -41% advantage."
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Texas - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Governor Poll conducted Nov. 3 - 4 of 602 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
Rick Perry (Republican) 44 52 50 58
Tony Sanchez (Democrat) 32 30 36 38
Rahul Mahajan (Green) 1 1 1 1
Jeff Daiell (Libertarian) 4 2 1 2
Not sure 18 13 10 -
Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners are not factored in the race stands at: Perry 52%, Sanchez 34%, Mahajan 1%, Daiell 1%, Undecided 10%). Perry maintains his leads over voters in Dallas (50% - 47%), in the East (59% - 37%), among voters in the West (65% - 34%) and in the Central region (61% - 32%). Perry also leads among voters Houston voters (62% - 35%). Sanchez leads in the South (60% - 34%). Sanchez leads among Democrats (80% - 17%) while Perry leads among Republicans (93% - 6%). Perry now leads among Independents (56% - 36%) when days ago, the two were virtually tied (Perry 41%, Sanchez 39%). Perry continues to lead Sanchez among whites (74% - 22%) while Sanchez leads among Hispanics (59% - 35%) and African Americans (81% - 19%).
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Texas - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 3 - 4 of 602 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%
Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results
John Cornyn (Republican) 42 45 49 50
Ron Kirk (Democrat) 30 37 48 46
Roy Williams (Green) 1 3 1 1
Scott Jameson (Libertarian) 3 2 2 2
Wright 1 5 1 1
Not sure 22 13 - -
Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners are not factored in the race stands at: (Cornyn 46%, Kirk 42%, Williams 1%, Jameson 1%, Wright 1%, Undecided 9%). Kirk now leads Cornyn among Dallas voters (62% - 38%) when days ago Cornyn led (48% - 45%). Cornyn leads among voters in Houston (53% - 43%), in the West (65% - 33%), and in the Central region (57% - 39%). Kirk leads among voters in the South (60% - 19%). Kirk leads among Democrats (86% - 13%) while Cornyn leads among Republicans (87% - 12%). Kirk leads among Independents (45% - 41%) when last month Cornyn led (40% - 36%). Cornyn leads among whites (68% - 30%) while Kirk leads among Hispanics (58% - 27%) and African Americans (91% - 9%).
Pollster John Zogby: "Turnout is everything here. Cornyn is also helped by President Bush's 78% favorable rating in Texas and the President's last-minute campaigning. But Kirk is a hot candidate and a big push by Hispanics and African Americans could make this even tighter."
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Colorado- He(Zogby) calls it for dem 51% - 46% translation:LIKELY-cheating by dems, they have a cheat plan in place and are reasonably sure they won't be caught.
Georgia He calls it almost a dead heat Translation:MEDIUM-possibility of 'RAT fraud. Dems have cheating plan , but are having trouble enacting it. i.e.-they are being monitored by Repubs &/or the feds.
South Dakota- Medium. Texas-Medium.
Missouri & NC(Both of these he called for repubs)-Low probability of 'RAT cheating, they would like to cheat , but aren't able to buy any judges & are being watched VERY closely.
New Jersy: Very High chance of cheating 'RATS at the polls-This one called for dems despite bizzare circumstances. Dems have a plan to cheat in place, and are sure they won't get caught. Translation: system is so corrupt in this state, dems have nothing to worry about
Minnesota-RED ALERT-EXTREMELY HIGH probability of 'RAT cheating. This comes from what Zogby said about this state i.e."Despite President's best efforts Mondale holds on"-Translation-Cheat plan in place, judges and union thugs ready, all systems go for dem fraudulent victory here. (Keep your eyes and ears open Minnesota Repubs.)
Arkansas-RED ALERT- The numbers say 93% of Repubs support Hutchinson, yet Zogby, and other 'RAT supporters are saying the "family values" people don't support him. Family values=Repub, & 93% support Hutchinson? So why is he not behind in the Repub poll? Something is fishy here. It seems a little too obvious and it gives the 'Rats an easy cover up for whatever scheme or dirty trick they have up there sleeves in this state. They think they have it in the bag.
Anyway, I hope all the radio and tv people who are on our side don't talk too much about the exit polls and focus more on people getting to the polls. I mean, if somebody in NJ comes home from work tired, and hears on the radio/tv that Forrester is 8 points behind, he/she is not going to bother to go vote. The Rats count on this , they use the polls to discourage republicans from voting, You'd think we would have learned from the 2000 election.
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That's just plain pathetic.
According to Barone, these now financially-aware voters will boost Republican numbers (as will the growing numbers of Generation X-er's [who are turning into conservative parents and voters] versus the declining number of Greatest Generation WWII people [who saw the Depression, WWII, paid into the programs and want their share]).
"Wall Street"-smarts is the secret sauce which will make the Republicans victorious tonight and save Zogby's reputation (except for Colorado, Georgia, and Minnesota!).
Throughout the campaign all the media claimed that Hutchinson had been hurt within his own party by his divorce and remarriage--- the idea being that Arkansas Republicans are a bunch of straightlaced Christian conservatives.
Zogby's poll numbers indicate quite the opposite. Hutchinson maintains outstanding support within his own party but has lost the independents.
Apparently Christian conservatives are political independents this time around, just like they were in 2000, and 1998. The media hates Christian conservatives and being Democrats they Can't handle the idea that this group really are swing voters.
With Gov Bill Owens set to collect over 60% of the vote, that means a big Republican turnout and that should get SenAllard over the top. Allard has done a very good job for the people of Colorado in the last six years and deserves re-election.