RCP Predictions: Republicans will take the Senate +2

RCP ^

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

Current RCP Predictions on Key 2002 Senate Races

Arkansas	Pryor (D) 53% - Hutchinson (R) 47%.	DEM +1
Colorado	Allard (R) 49% - Strickland (R) 48%	GOP Hold
Georgia	Chambliss (R) 49% - Cleland (D) 49%	GOP +1
Iowa	Harkin (D) 54% - Ganske (R) 46%	DEM Hold
Louisiana	Landrieu (D) 46%	Runoff
Minnesota	Coleman (R) 51% - Mondale (D) 47%	GOP +1
Missouri	Talent (R) 51% - Carnahan (D) 48%	GOP +1
New Hampshire	Shaheen (D) 49% - Sununu (R) 48%	DEM +1
New Jersey	Lautenberg (D) 51% - Forrester (R) 47%	DEM Hold
North Carolina	Dole (R) 51% - Bowles(D) 47%	GOP Hold
South Carolina	Graham (R) 56% - Sanders 43%	GOP Hold
South Dakota	Thune (R) 50% - Johnson (D) 50%	GOP +1
Texas	Cornyn (R) 50% - Kirk (D) 48%	GOP Hold
	Total Net Gain (Not Counting Louisiana Runoff)	GOP +2

[ffrancone]

Allard will be a squeaker. But Colorado is the beneficiary of a big chunk of money from the RNC for a pilot program called the 96 hour team.

I'm quite involved in this effort and can tell you the level of involvement and commitment is quite astonishing. Our kickoff meeting was Friday night. We expected about 1000 volunteers in the Denver Metro area. We had twice that many.

Well over half the volunteers were in suits and had just come from work. They are taking vacation monday and tuesday to work the election. They have been walking precincts all weekend. My team includes VP's at Fortune 500 companies, attorneys and many other professionals who are walking precincts.

Oral Roberts U. Has bussed in 160 truly great young college students to work with us.

Some of us are walking precincts in 18 degree weather and my wife, who runs a team of about 40 precinct walkers has to make them come in an hour after dark. It's so dark by 5:15 pm that you can't read the addresses on half the houses; but people just keep working.

Others are working phones. We have 150 phone lines installed at HQ. Undecideds have already been targeted. On election day, we have poll watchers at every precinct with a cell phone. Every Rep and targeted unaffiliated voter who has not voted will get a call before the polls close.

This is going on all over the state. Colorado has never had a Republican effort anything like this. If it works, expect to see it all over the country in future years.

We have a grownup president, who knows how important party is. We have a governor who is an organizational genius and has put the fortunes of Sen Allard, Bobby Beauprez (7th congressional) and the state house and senate candidates ahead of his own.

That said, it will be a squeaker. But we won't lose because the RATS outhustled us this year.

[SShultz460]

My Predictions (Doing Good in Football Pool So I will Try this)

SD- Thune (R) Takes it, Be a Close on but it Eeks out
MN- Coleman (R) Wins it by 3+ points
MO- Talent (R) Wins by 5+ Points
CO- Allard (R) Wins by a Fingernail
NH- Shaheen (D) Wins by 1-2 Points (maybe a Fingernail, Don't think we will take this one)
AK- Pryor (D) Will eek it out even with the Illy help
NJ- Lautenberg (D) +5 Judicial Activism at work here
TX- Cornyn(R) Will win 5+ or more
GA- Cleland (D) Will eek it out on a real close margin
NC- Dole (R) Be Real Close, this race will be withen a point
LA- Landrau (D) Will win in a Run Off


That's My take on it...

[SShultz460]

and...
IA-The Dim will win...7+ Points...

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I am borrowing your link!

Thanks!

[I still care]

So will we all. But don't hold your breath. I have a bad feeling that democrat lawsuits are going to drag this one out until December. The days of knowing who won an election the next day are gone, thank you Al Gore. I stayed up all night election 2000 to find out that no winner was being declared that night - bummer.

When Gore said a few days ago, "Does anyone remember where they were when the court stopped the count" what I really remember is waiting for his concession speech and finding out I was robbed of hearing it about 2 in the am. That louse.

[justlurking]

I have never been polled. I sure would like too, though.

I've had a few attempts. I hung up on them.

Telephone polling is getting really hard, because the only people that answer the phones are the ones sitting at home with nothing to do. And, I'm sure you know how they vote.

[TatieBug]

Praying for these results...perhaps Bob Smith could wise up and help...what a shameless sore looser.

[rwfromkansas]

If I did not have a college test on Tuesday, I would have loved to work such an effort if they had something like that going on here in Kansas.

[taildragger]

Tator, It is because in there hearts they are DemoRats and they are trying to look impartial. They know this is big. They know Bush has coat tails and is dragging people into vote for these folks cause they like him and Laura. They can't bring themselves to say that they GOP is going to take the senate and they know it, the "MO' is with us.

I say we pick up three seats net total. for a senate of 53 R 1 Ind and 46 Rats, This is with NH a toss up and LA still a run off, If the wind is in our sails on these 2 we pick up 2 more. Remember you heard it here 1st!

[rwfromkansas]

With that kind of effort (thank goodness that is going on), Allard may pull it off. In WV, the GOP is calling all the Republicans to get out the vote. Who knows, Jay Wolfe could squeak out due to that.....it would truly be the shocker of the election......but I am hopeful.

[StopThePress]

I agree with the other Coloradoan (Nephi). As another Coloradoan resident I have seen how we can get out the vote in a much better way than the GOP can in other states. I worked my precinct both Saturday and Today and have seen some amazing things. First I agree that we cannot be fooled by polls. Regardless of the media or anything else - you cannot control that. You can only control what YOU are responsible for - and that is 1) VOTE and 2) WORK YOUR PRECINCT HARD (if you can). The second thing to be aware of is that when Gore lost Colorado - he lost it big. The polls showed a much smaller gap than what it ultimately was - which should be another good sign for Allard. The Allard volunteers have hit the largest Republican County in America VERY HARD - I'm pretty sure we will pull this one out but it won't be until early morning hours. The other thing I noticed was that the RATS seem very deflated here. I've talked to blue dog RATS and Californian RATS and almost all of them seemed to think that they were in trouble because of money and DNC scandals. GOOD LUCK TO ALL OF YOU IN EACH OF YOUR RESPECTIVE STATES!!!!

[L`enn]

My own take is that an undecided this late in the game ain't showing up Tuesday.

[EternalVigilance]

The entire political and media establishment decided this race--Jay Wolfe vs Jay Rockefeller--could not be won before it ever started.

That conventional wisdom has prevailed throughout the election cycle. I have heard pundit after pundit pontificate (when they remember the race actually is going on) that this is a cakewalk for Rockefeller. However, they are making a BASELESS assumption. They have NO ONE on the ground in WV. They have NO sources to tell them the facts of what is actually occurring. Scores of West Virginians have tried to tell the GOP leadership that it was a race...to no avail. Heck, County Dem leaders have reportedly tried to tell THEIR leadership that they were getting whipped in the precincts, but THEY aren't listening to THEM either...LOL.

Frankly, the only one who has gotten it, at least to some extent, is the President of the United States. He leaned over to Jay the other night exhorted Jay to, "GO FOR THE UPSET!" I was there...I saw it and heard it.

We have had control of the initiative in this race for weeks...it has become a referendum on guns, partial-birth abortions, taxes, spending and national defense...exactly as we set out to make it. We are fighting on our ground, and are whipping them soundly.

There have been over a half million pieces of VERY effective literature distributed now. We won the sign war, convincingly. The Jay vs Jay Poll has been printed in half to full-page ads in most all of the newspapers in the state. Our grassroots have called virtually ALL of the Republicans in the state to turn them out to vote. In the last 72 hours we have gone up with over 1500 very powerful radio ads that are blanketing the state...including one 60 second spot from the WV president of the NRA that decimates Rockefeller's entire ad campaign that was pandering to veterans. All of this advertising will run heavy heavy heavy right up until 6 pm on Tuesday.

I had someone search one County today---Taylor County---and they could not find a SINGLE Rockefeller sign. Not one. (And it's not because we stole them---we're not Democrats ;-).

In Harrison County, which runs about 3 to 1 Dem in registrations, local prominent Dems are admitting privately that Rockefeller is going to lose the County badly.

There is more, alot more, but everyone here on this thread, and on FR, has fair warning. Believe me, or don't believe me---but we are in a dead heat at least here in the Mountain State.

EV

[montag813]

Can somebody explain to Sen. Smith that this election is bigger than him? Sheesh, how pathetic.

I understand how you feel, however, I believe it is very important to stop insulting Bob Smith.

Many of us who support John Sununu respect greatly Bob's views, and particular his support for the unborn.

To those who supported Bob Smith and are feel hurt and insulted, please bury the hatchet...in Jeanne Shaheen!

Shaheen represents views which are diametically opposed to those of both Bob Smith and John Sununu. I know you want to express your respect for Bob by writing in his name. However, I feel you can best respect his service in the Senate by keeping a pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, pro-defense man in his seat.

Let us support Conservatism on Nov 5th...please support Sununu!

[montag813]

voters don't usually vote for the loser the second time around

Tell that to Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush. A silly comment from Fred Barnes.

[EternalVigilance]

Let us support Conservatism on Nov 5th...please support Sununu!

I totally agree. It is unthinkable to think of Jeanne Shaheen sitting in Daniel Webster's seat.

I urge every conservative in NH to swallow their bitterness and vote for John Sununu.

[calenel]

The Republicans are motivated. I think Sununu can pull it out. A last minute endorsement from Smith would help - he already disavowed the write in campaign. We're walking the precincts, lots of people working the phones. The only problem we face is the massive fraud from the Rats.

Everyone should take a camera to the polls. Photograph buses and vans and get their plate numbers, and cars with out of state plates. They are evidence of voter fraud.

[Alberta's Child]

I read somewhere that Karl Rove would not let Bush campaign for any Republican Senate candidate that wasn't a good bet to win -- he didn't want the President to be seen as "rejected" by the voters at all.

I don't know if this is true or not, but in light of the fact that Bush hasn't shown his face in some places (New Jersey, for example) there might be some truth to it.

[calenel]

"Shaheen represents views which are diametically opposed to those of both Bob Smith and John Sununu. I know you want to express your respect for Bob by writing in his name. However, I feel you can best respect his service in the Senate by keeping a pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, pro-defense man in his seat.

Let us support Conservatism on Nov 5th...please support Sununu!"

And for anyone who really is concerned about appropriate conservative representation, Bob Smith has a lifetime ACU (American Conservative Union) rating of 92. John Sununu has a rating of 94.

Daschle's rating is 13. Shaheen has no rating, but she is going to be just a Daschle echo.

Think about it.

[HighWheeler]

Looks like there are going to be 8 GOP wins that will be challenged by the Dim lawyers in frivolous lawsuits.

The Dim lawyers will challenge the Talent and Coleman wins, the Dims will be filing lawsuits by noon Tuesday. Either of these two will turn the Senate to GOP on Wednesday, so they have to stop these at ALL costs.
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