[Brices Crossroads]

"I don't think the Texas race is seriously in play."

I hope Zogby's polls will energize the Republican turnout. I do think Zogby vastly overestimates minority turnout, especially when you consider that Yahoo's weather forecasts rain for all of Texas' major metropolitan areas (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin) except El Paso on Tuesday. Having said that, I hope that this Zogby poll is circulated on all email lists to get out every Republican vote in Texas.

[Diddle E. Squat]

IMHO people are putting way to much weight on rain affecting turnout. Ice and heavy snow might do that, but rain is more of just an inconvenience.

[Nataku X]

I do think Zogby vastly overestimates minority turnout,

Yes, it does. In 2000 a lot of my black friends were ENRAGED over the dragging death in Texas & blamed Bush for it. No, it doesn't make sense, but the point is that the blacks were all railed up over it and turned out in massive numbers (fortunately, in Florida, the Cuban turnout was abnormally high enough from Elian to tip the scale).

There isn't a similar issue this year. If the sniper had been white, we'd have been in pretty serious trouble, but the sniper being black seems to have taken a lot of enthusiasm out of them.

[Nataku X]

Also look for very high minority turnout in the immediate areas where Bill Clinton has stumped. The RNC would be wise to come up to Clinton and say "Hello, Bill, here's a million dollars and an all-expenses-paid vacation in the Bahamas for the entire month of October and the first week of November". Hate to admit it, but it's true.