11/3 Zogby Poll Final Numbers (Some Shockers)

Meet The Press | 11/03/02 | Zogby

[Ed_in_LA]

Minn: Mondale 50% Coleman 45%

TX: Kirk 48% Cornyn 49%

NJ: Lautenberg 54% Forrester 38%

Ark: Pryor 51% 40%

SD: Johnson 52% Thune 47%

GA: Cleland 49% Chambliss 49%

CO: Strickland 53% Allard 44%

NC: Bowles 46% Dole 52%

FL Gov: McBride 42% Bush 57%

[Dave S]

As far as McBride and Gore flubbing it, that is not the result of anything Russert did but, rather, their own shortcomings. Face it, when a Democrat blows a question on education, which is a demo issue, it says a lot about his inadequacy as a candidate, not Russert's fairness as a questioner.

If you dont feel Russert is fair I say Katie Curic.

[VOA]

They would like for Republicans to get frustrated and stay home.
NO WAY!
I'm VOTING no matter what the POLLS say! If I am the ONLY one voting Republican so be it!!!
They will NOT discourage me from getting out and FIGHTING this fight!!! It didn't work!!!

You said it well and it bears repeating.
Even if the impending imbroglio in the Louisiana Senate race will probably
leave us breathless until sometime in December.

[BoomerBob]

I just saw a new SurveyUSA poll (yeah, I don't put much stock in them either) posted at realclearpolitics.com that had Allard up 50/46. My gut still tells me that Allard wins but I don't have any more insight than anybody else. I just don't see the Dem turnout being large enough in an off-year election to overcome their registration disadvantage.

I haven't seen the breakdown of Zogby's CO poll regarding party affiliation but I suspect its higher than the Ciruli poll which has been using a 35/dem 40/gop split.

[lonestar]

I think Zogby & freinds are in fantasy land here. In fact, I guess that Zogby will next announce that he has moved into a gingerbread house on gumdrop lane!

Hope you're right.

[rwfromkansas]

These are disturbing numbers...Yes, it is Zogby. But very disturbing......we have GOT TO GET OUT THE VOTE! IF YOU CAN, WALK YOUR PRECINCTS AND CALL YOUR NEIGHBORS AND FRIENDS.

[rwfromkansas]

More depressing news.....we may just lose most of these races by a hair.

[rwfromkansas]

All of today's polls show Allard losing.....definitely I am concerend about that. We stand a good chance of losing that one.

[Pikachu_Dad]

Where is Louisiana? IN THE SOUTH !!!

Nobody is bothering with us, because we are having a primary. Most likely, we will have a runoff a month later.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

CNN/Galup out tonight has Allard ahead (that's not a great poll, I know, but there's more flux to that race than the Zogby poll shows, I think). I think turnout in Colorado could help swing it to Allard. Don't know why, just think he's going to win.

Hope I'm right.

[Tribune7]

I'm listening to Drudge and Ann Coulter as I type. They both seem very, very upbeat about this election.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

There's a sense of momentum to the Republicans -- it could just be ephemeral, but there is definitely a sense that the RATS look bad with all of their shenanigans, no issues, attacks on the President and turning back to the last century for their ancient replacement candidates.

It sure "feels" a lot different than 1996.

Let's hope the feeling is right.

[Wolfstar]

Regarding the divided government thing, the last few days I've seen several print stories and TV commentators say something along the lines of "it might acutally be to George Bush's benefit to lose the senate," yada, yada, yada.

[Wolfstar]

Zogby is not infallible. It is worth restating that Zogby could not have been more wrong in 2000 regarding the California results. The night before the election he had Bush up by 1 over Gore in California. Gore won the state by around 13 percentage points.

[Bombard]

I agree. The man has had his run but all things come to an end. I think his models are good for the national level but on a state by state basis it is hard to fine tune enough to get a real picture when the races are all this close. I see the GOP gaining 3 Senate seats and 5 house seats. I think this president has bonded with a large segment of voters and they will vote for GOP candidates in numbers that will put the GOP in the win collum on a majority of the close races. Then our friend Saddam had better be ready for a wake up call in mid December. ON YO BAGHDAD!!!!!!

[Doctor Stochastic]

FR gets a lot of happy-thing around election time. Zogby predicted the GOP doing well in 1994. He also called most other national races correctly since then. I find it troubling that Conservatives accept or reject polls on the basis of their feelings about the pollster. Only the results count.

[Doctor Stochastic]

That should be happy-think not happy-thing. Of course there isn't too much difference.

[BoomerBob]

I think the point that many of us are trying to make is that Zogby has been very inaccurate in several of his state polls. Look at his his polling for the IL governor's race--it's completely out of line with everything else out there (and his poll favors the GOP).

I agree with you that we should view the races critically but Zogby's polling doesn't seem to fit with what is actually happening in several of these close races.

[pbranham]

Where do you get the double digits?

1. At least half of the polls I have seen in the last month.

2. Texas voting history.

3. My gut feeling.

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

[NY Catholic]

These numbers tell me that fraud is in the air.