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11/3 Zogby Poll Final Numbers (Some Shockers)
Meet The Press | 11/03/02 | Zogby

Posted on 11/03/2002 9:01:54 AM PST by Ed_in_LA

Minn: Mondale 50% Coleman 45%

TX: Kirk 48% Cornyn 49%

NJ: Lautenberg 54% Forrester 38%

Ark: Pryor 51% 40%

SD: Johnson 52% Thune 47%

GA: Cleland 49% Chambliss 49%

CO: Strickland 53% Allard 44%

NC: Bowles 46% Dole 52%

FL Gov: McBride 42% Bush 57%


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas; US: Colorado; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Minnesota; US: Missouri; US: New Jersey; US: North Carolina; US: South Dakota; US: Texas
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To: deport
Does it skew the poll or just take them out of the sample?

When you take a group out of a sample it definitely skews a poll.

241 posted on 11/03/2002 1:19:56 PM PST by PJ-Comix
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To: ambrose
Zogby TX senate poll is to PISS OFF W, because he is PRO-Isreal...simple as that......

I bet he comes on TV on Tuesday morning and says Cornyn has reversed the momentum,,,since W showed up in TX Monday night.

Cornyn will get atleast 60-65% of the white vote, approx30% of the hispanic vote and approx 9% of the African American
vote, so any one explain to me where he gets his figures?

242 posted on 11/03/2002 1:23:17 PM PST by KQQL
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To: ambrose
Zogby TX senate poll is to PISS OFF W, because he is PRO-Isreal...simple as that......

I bet he comes on TV on Tuesday morning and says Cornyn has reversed the momentum,,,since W showed up in TX Monday night.

Cornyn will get atleast 60-65% of the white vote, approx30% of the hispanic vote and approx 9% of the African American
vote, so any one explain to me where he gets his figures?

243 posted on 11/03/2002 1:23:17 PM PST by KQQL
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To: PJ-Comix
But how do you know they are out of the sample? Of a 1000 sample how many do you think will not answere just because they have ID? The sample taken still is representative of the populace surveyed. The real question is is that populace representative of the whole populace? Just because you don't answer doesn't mean you have a different opinion than someone who took you place on the call list..... or does it?
244 posted on 11/03/2002 1:25:18 PM PST by deport
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To: Dave S
Check out MSNBC website (near the bottom, it maybe part they share with Washington Post online). They had two articles on turnout today. One discussed the major effort the Dems were putting out. The other was on minority turnout and quoted some dems that were concerned that minority turnout might not be that great because the campaigns were targeted towards issues that were more important to suburban elites such as abortion, the environment, and judges than on jobs and safety net programs.

Thanks. I just read both, and feel a lot better about Tuesday now. When Donna Brazile says the RATS have completely fumbled the ball on getting out the black vote, then you can take that to the bank. I especially loved the fact that one RAT admitted their only game plan for enouraging black turnout is to have Bill Clinton hold as many rallies in heavily-black areas as possible.

I don't think we're going to have a 1994 here, but I think the GOP's going to end up doing a lot better on Tuesday than most people are expecting.

245 posted on 11/03/2002 1:25:55 PM PST by Timesink
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To: ForGod'sSake
Lotsa polls there deport. I couldn't find Rasmussen/POA; did I miss 'em???

You can't miss what doesn't exist. They're dead.

246 posted on 11/03/2002 1:27:18 PM PST by Timesink
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To: All
ZOGBY is wrong about FL too...
JEB WILL get MAX of 53-55% of the vote. and not 57%+.
SOUTH FL IS RAT COUNRTY!
247 posted on 11/03/2002 1:27:27 PM PST by KQQL
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To: montag813; All
Will be closer than you think. There is MASSIVE voter fraud in Johannesburg, er I mean Houston

Even in places with "bulletproof" voting machines, with paper ballots as backups, there seems to be a HUGE effort to tamper with the Early and Absentee ballots, even in States where Clean Elections are the rule.

Used to be only where there were DemocRAT City Political Machines...now, we are finding single family houses listed for 100 voters. I guess you can't check them all in time???

248 posted on 11/03/2002 1:28:49 PM PST by Lael
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To: deport
The real question is is that populace representative of the whole populace? Just because you don't answer doesn't mean you have a different opinion than someone who took you place on the call list..... or does it?

I think folks who screen their calls might be somewhat more conservative than the population as a whole. Why? Because they tend to be BUSIER and don't want to answer their calls if they are going to be time wasting phone spam. The vast growth of phone spam in the last few years has made more of us screen our calls.

249 posted on 11/03/2002 1:29:22 PM PST by PJ-Comix
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To: ForGod'sSake
Apparently they were never carried by Pollingreport.com

250 posted on 11/03/2002 1:33:33 PM PST by deport
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To: Timesink
You can't miss what doesn't exist. They're dead.

Those were 2000 polls; POA was alive and well...

FGS

251 posted on 11/03/2002 1:34:39 PM PST by ForGod'sSake
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To: deport
Really because ppl screen their calls?... Just takes more calls to get the representative sample, correct?

No. It does require more calls - a LOT more calls - but the end result is still less accurate than it used to be. There's all sorts of reasons for this: Richer people are more likely to be paying for Caller ID and unidentified call block, thus skewing things RAT; it insures that the sample ends up being a much higher percentage of true policial junkies and shut-ins who are just happy to have someone to talk to for a few minutes; etc. You can try to correct for it statistically, but every time you have to "factor out" stuff, your poll ends up being no better than your statistical special sauce.

It's getting harder and harder every year for pollsters to get accurate samples. They're going to have to come up with some new ways of interviewing people.

252 posted on 11/03/2002 1:34:52 PM PST by Timesink
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To: PJ-Comix
So how much does it skew the results when they miss me because I'm out in the garage working or have gone to the store for a few minutes. All groups have some that are missed for some reason or the other. True ID is a new item they have to learn to adjust for.
253 posted on 11/03/2002 1:35:43 PM PST by deport
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To: Ed_in_LA
Wishfull thinking by the democrat-Arab (and sympathizer) Zeebee. Has anyone ever seen his 'surveys' and techniques? Get out the vote and don't let one soul go by you on Tuesday without encouraging them to vote, vote for smaller government and a safer America.
254 posted on 11/03/2002 1:37:16 PM PST by ApesForEvolution
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To: Pokey78
I thought I was going to toss my dinner last night when I saw Margaret Carlson call McBride a "terrific candidate!).

Actually, I would have tossed in surprise if she had NOT called him terrific.

255 posted on 11/03/2002 1:37:44 PM PST by cinFLA
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To: BlackRazor
Zogby is doing his best to hold onto the Senate single handedly for the democr@ps by dissuading the GOP base from voting. VOTE YOU LOVERS OF FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!! This is but one step - but an IMPORTANT STEP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
256 posted on 11/03/2002 1:39:24 PM PST by ApesForEvolution
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To: lstanle
RE your post #134 - I think you are partly right there. McMumble is not going to win over FL's conservative voters with the Dem Party leadership crew he has down here now.
257 posted on 11/03/2002 2:05:32 PM PST by summer
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To: Timesink

Out of a sample nationwide what is "a lot more calls"? 5, 10, 100, 1000,? So the "rats" are more likely not to have the ID, blocker, etc. or to answer even if they have it... Interesting

258 posted on 11/03/2002 2:21:00 PM PST by deport
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To: Grampa Dave
Very good Grampa Dave. You just might be on to something. He announced on Hannity last week that in case no one knows it, he is democrat. I have a feeling you may be right about him knowing where massive fraud will be taking place. We also know.
259 posted on 11/03/2002 2:26:52 PM PST by ladyinred
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To: Dave S
"Don't be so hard on Russert"

Russert has a style that is basically rude to everyone, but he is definitely harder on Republicans. Most of his sharper queries are right out of the DNC/PC playbook. He is a thinly disguised flak for the Democrats. As for Tony Snow, he is a commentator and I don't think he even pretends to be objective, but in practice I think he actually comes off as more objective than Russert.

As far as McBride and Gore flubbing it, that is not the result of anything Russert did but, rather, their own shortcomings. Face it, when a Democrat blows a question on education, which is a demo issue, it says a lot about his inadequacy as a candidate, not Russert's fairness as a questioner. It is the equivalent of asking a Republican about the Communist threat during the height of the Cold War and having him blow it. Bad candidate, not impartial cross examiner.

260 posted on 11/03/2002 2:31:58 PM PST by Brices Crossroads
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