11/3 Zogby Poll Final Numbers (Some Shockers)

Meet The Press | 11/03/02 | Zogby

[Ed_in_LA]

Minn: Mondale 50% Coleman 45%

TX: Kirk 48% Cornyn 49%

NJ: Lautenberg 54% Forrester 38%

Ark: Pryor 51% 40%

SD: Johnson 52% Thune 47%

GA: Cleland 49% Chambliss 49%

CO: Strickland 53% Allard 44%

NC: Bowles 46% Dole 52%

FL Gov: McBride 42% Bush 57%

[ForGod'sSake]

Your theory doesn't hold water.

How about Jeb and the Pubbies have gotten the Dims number in Fla??? They'll be watching the Dims like hawks, eh?

FGS

[Holden Magroin]

There's no way Bush is getting 57% of the vote!

[Brices Crossroads]

The weather makes a significant difference. It can depress Democrat turnout by 10-15%. When you are canvassing a public housing project trying to get people to go to the polls, try convincing them when there is a driving rain storm going on. Republicans on the other hand tend to vote regardless. This is just a fact. If it costs the Democrats only 2-3% in some of the close races (Georgia, North Carolina, even Arkansas, if it's close enough) you could see a real earthquake. In Louisiana, I will flatly predict that the rainy weather on Tuesday will make it IMPOSSIBLE for Mary Landrieu to avoid a runoff.

[Sal]

I thought Zogby was the pollster for the third party candidate (Golisano?) for NY governor. He had everybody believing that Golisano was going to come in second, then all of a sudden it turned out Golisano was way behind even McCall. I think he polls as he's told to do and that gives the Rats SOME cover for their vote fraud. That cover is becoming less believable IMO.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

LOL! I have never heard a Freeper who didn't think his state Republican party wasn't a bunch of bungling fools! (and the corollary that the Democrats in the state are savants of organization)

We really don't even have a Republican Party in Washington (western part), so it's hard to know if they're good at organization or not.

[pabianice]

Zogby is as reliable as any other Arafat supporter...

[Nataku X]

False. The average Democrat will not stand in line for 30 minutes in 40-degree rain and chills. 80% of democrats in general are a dumb-as-rocks base--they get all their political knowledge and enthusiasm from Oprah.

So, yes, weather will be a major factor. Most people have to get to a polling place during unreasonable hours in order to vote before work, and going out into the dark only to be assaulted by cold winds and rains will cause most Democrats to shrug their shoulders and go back inside for their coffee. (In other words, they care this much: . )

2000 was unusually warm fall if I remember correctly. This year has seemed to be much colder than normal.

[Holden Magroin]

The weather makes a significant difference. It can depress Democrat turnout by 10-15%. When you are canvassing a public housing project trying to get people to go to the polls, try convincing them when there is a driving rain storm going on. Republicans on the other hand tend to vote regardless.

You must think it doesn't rain on Republican heads. Bush lost New Mexico because of heavy snow in the Republican areas. However, I'll drink to your theory.

[longtermmemmory]

I find it interesting that rep are self motivated. There was a comment on meet the depresed that the Reps. have a voting machine this year but it does not compare to the get out the vote machine of the dems because they have the unions to provide for paid workers to do the task.

[concerned about politics]

If the sniper had been white, we'd have been in pretty serious trouble, but the sniper being black seems to have taken a lot of enthusiasm out of them.

And according to recient grocery store tabloids, a homosexual pedophile as well. These are Democrat voting bases. Black, homosexual, and pedophilia (NAMBLA) supporters.

[Nataku X]

Also look for very high minority turnout in the immediate areas where Bill Clinton has stumped. The RNC would be wise to come up to Clinton and say "Hello, Bill, here's a million dollars and an all-expenses-paid vacation in the Bahamas for the entire month of October and the first week of November". Hate to admit it, but it's true.

[Axenolith]

How about putting a (D) or (R) next to candidates names when polls are posted, makes it a little more appreciable for us who aren't up on the other races not in our own states...

[Brices Crossroads]

"I'll drink to your theory"

As I recall, he also lost New Mexico because of a fair amount of vote fraud. Also, New Mexico tends to vote demo in Presidential elections, doesn't it? Anyway, this Republican head will be wearing a hat on Tuesday and voting. Bottoms up!

[Nataku X]

Gays never commit crimes. Get on with the ball. ;-)

[ambrose]

As I understand it, these are Zogby's "push poll" numbers where he forces undecideds to make a choice. The fallacy with this sort of polling is that many of the undecideds may ultimately not vote at all.

[DaGman]

I respect Zogby's polling because he was the only pollster to nail Al Gore winning the popular vote in 2000. But I think he's very wrong on this one. This is the only poll that shows Bush up by 15%.

I'm not sure the polls are factoring correctly the heavy minority turnout that consistently votes Dem. I think the Zog is in left field on this one. I can see Bush by 5% but not 15%

And BTW, all the Zogby bashers that claim he's a shill for the Dems ought to take note of this and reconsider.

[TLBSHOW]

"let's roll" because IMHO - it creates a huge mental picture of personal responsibility and patriotism that appeals to the Reagan voters.

LET'S ROLL

REPUBLICAN LANDSLIDE ON TUESDAY!

[concerned about politics]

As I understand it, these are Zogby's "push poll" numbers where he forces undecideds to make a choice. The fallacy with this sort of polling is that many of the undecideds may ultimately not vote at all.

Undecided voters often follow who ever seems to be ahead in the polls. They figure most people will vote for the highest, so they do too. A bad poll could win an election.

[Brices Crossroads]

Republicans do not rely on knocking on doors on election day to get out the vote. My experience is they use phone banks to identify and get out their vote. But the Repulican GOTV effort is no less effective, because more Republicans tend to vote and are not as likely to be dissuaded by inclement weather. "Meet the DE- Press-ED" is really little more than a DNC commercial orchestrated by ex-Mario Cuomo staffer Timmy Russert.

[Alamo-Girl]

Let's Roll!