Posted on 11/02/2002 5:53:50 AM PST by The Raven
Experts say governments across Europe need to plan for a virulent flu outbreak that could claim hundreds of thousands of lives.
Although the last two winters have brought only mild strains of flu to the UK, the viruses are constantly mutating and scientists say it is only a matter of time before a powerful strain emerges.
Whatever knowledge, technology and skills we develop, eventually it's the policy makers and the politicians that decide what is going to happen
Professor Albert Osterhaus, Erasmus University While it may not be as damaging as the 1918 "Spanish flu" that killed tens of millions in Europe alone, they say that the continent is not ready to cope with another pandemic.
This "superflu" is caused by an influenza virus, but its fatality rate is more reminiscent of lethal haemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola.
Previous versions, including the Spanish flu, had mutated into a form which the human immune system could not tackle.
It is possible that, at any time, the virus could mutate again and produce a strain that could share many of these lethal genetic characteristics.
Strategies
Virologists from throughout Europe are meeting in Malta this week to discuss the best strategy for first predicting, and then handling a major outbreak.
Albert Osterhaus, a professor of virology at Erasmus Univeristy in Rotterdam, said: "Whatever knowledge, technology and skills we develop, eventually it's the policy makers and the politicians that decide what is going to happen."
European citizens will expect everything possible to have been done at every level of public authority
Robert Coleman, European Commission Some experts have been looking at the genetic structure of the virus which caused the 1918 pandemic, as well as a serious outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997 for clues which may help doctors combat such an outbreak.
There were three flu pandemics in the last century, in 1918, 1957 and 1968.
Even though the 1957 and 1968 outbreaks were less severe than the Spanish flu, they still accounted for 40m deaths between them.
Overdue attack
Researchers suggest that an approximate 30 year cycle between pandemics means we are well overdue for another one.
Robert Coleman, the director general of health and consumer protection at the European Commission, said: "The action we take now will determine how well we combat the next major influenza threat we will face.
"European citizens will expect everything possible to have been done at every level of public authority.
"It will be several months at least after the start of the pandemic before a vaccine is available.
"Antiviral drugs could help during this period, but stockpiles would need to be in place well in advance. This is not yet the case."
Precisely why I take the necessary steps to help prevent the occurance of flu in the first place; strengthening the immune system, minimizing contact with sick people, maintaining an environment as hostile to germs as possible, and so forth. Don't want the flu; don't want the shot.
It isn't. In fact, because I work in a skilled nursing facility, they keep hounding me every year to get the flu shot. Every year I refuse. The employees who get the shot almost all end up sick with something, but (knock on wood) so far I've escaped.
I'm a great believer in Vitamin C and immune system enhancement. Also they say if you drink two or three beers a day, you won't catch a cold. :^)
Carolyn
working-vacation
Also, (I am sure as you and others are aware) there is no guarantee the shots will work, but they do save lives, especially for the elderly. Our whole family is getting them this week. I have no spleen and and can catch the flu very easy, so it is very important for me to get it.
One can be an expert in medicine without being an expert in medical history.
I'm an expert in neither, but have read at least two books on the 1918 flu and certainly can recall absolutely no claim that recent flus are worse than 1918.
I do agree that a renewed 1918-type flu would be less fatal today due to generally better medical care. Also, the 1918 flu, bad as it was, was not nearly as deadly as epidemics from earlier centuries. For example, my own Philadelphia area is famous for being hard-hit in 1918, but the 1793 yellow fever epidemic here was much worse in the proportion of population killed.
My husband gets flu shots every year. It started when he was in the Navy, and since he'd never gotten sick, he figured he ought to stick with it. One year there was a long line so he didn't get the shot, both of us got terribly ill. It was miserable! For the first time ever, he had to stay home from work because I was too sick to take care of our two year old.
http://www.rdi.gpo.or.th/NetZine/V3N46/flu.htm
Haven't taken the time to read it (just scanned over it quickly), but I'm certain it's the classic Scientific American article from a couple of years back about influenza. Don't know why it's posted where it is (that doesn't look like the SA site). I just searched on a couple of key words from the article and found it there.
Contrary to some opinions expressed here, the threat of a flu pandemic is very, very real, and it could kill millions. Informed and thoughtful people would take it seriously.
Incidentally, the flu strains that cause pandemics don't develop because of too many people being too close together, but because of too many people living in close proximity with animals such as poultry and swine that can have the flu.
Haven't read the article since it first came out, so my memory's a little hazy, but I think the theory is that such a flu virus is created when a host critter is infected with a human flu strain and a swine or bird flu strain simultaneously.
When a an individual flu virus invades a host cell, I believe it comes apart and releases its genetic material (8 strands of RNA, as I recall) into the cell. The RNA strands float about separately in the nucleus of the cell, using amino acids available there to create copies of themselves. Then they recombine into daughter viruses and cleave the cell wall, causing it to rupture, so they can invade other cells.
I think the theory is that if a host cell is simultaneously invaded by human flu virus and a porcine or avian virus, it's possible for strands of RNA from both viral types to recombine to create a daughter virus that's close enough to a normal human flu virus to be well-adapted to our bodies, but exotic enough that we have no antibodies that "recognize" it.<It is a truly outstanding article; I recommend it to all.
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