Posted on 10/31/2002 1:12:44 PM PST by TLBSHOW
Released: October 31, 2002 Congressional Generic: Democrat 51% - GOP 49%; Most Influential Voter Issue: The Economy; Bush Job Performance Still Strong at 64%; Democrats Now Best Suited to Handle Economy, Latest Zogby America Poll Reveals
The race for control of Congress is neck and neck and too close to call, latest Zogby America Poll results show.
In the final Zogby America Poll before the November 5th elections, 51% of likely voters nationwide say they will vote Democratic in the upcoming Congressional elections, and 49% say they will vote for a Republican candidate. The poll, conducted of 1,006 likely voters nationwide between Oct. 26-29 has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.2%.
President George W. Bush continues to receive a strong job performance endorsement from likely voters, with a 64% positive, 35% negative job performance rating. In September, Bush received a 63% positive, 36% negative job performance rating, compared to the 64% positive, 36% negative rating he received in August.
Results also show that 49% say Bush deserves re-election, compared to 35% who say it is time for someone new.
Other Zogby America Poll results show that economy/jobs is again the clear number one issue that will be most influential in the way voters vote November 5th. Economy/jobs is the most influential issue by 20% of likely voters, followed by education at 12%, taxes at 10%, terrorism/safety and healthcare (both at 7%), and Social Security and the war, both at 5%. In September, economy/jobs was the number one issue most influential for 22% of those polled, followed by terrorism/safety (10%), taxes (10%) and the war (10%).
Latest Zogby America Poll results also show that Democrats are now judged the party best suited to handle the economy (43% - 41%). In June, Republicans were judged best suited to handle the economy (44%-38%).
Pollster John Zogby: "Barring a late calamity or anything else unforeseen, neither party goes into this election with the upper hand. The economy is the issue, as we have been saying for months, but the Democrats do not seem to be poised to take advantage. The last few Congressional elections have been virtually tied. Add another tie."
Zogby, wether you like him or hate him is without dobut the best in the business.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and again!
Is the RNC really going to let the rats get away with their failure to pass a security bill?
If the situation was reversed, do you really think the rats wouldn't be continuously crucifying the GOP as soft on defense?.
The GOP's inability to exploit major propagada opportunities is going to cost it in the long run.
I only hope that the younger generation of Republicans gain control soon and annihilate the rats once and for all.
It's not like it would be hard to do.
But I do know that the parties are doing lots of tracking polls. They tend to be very accurate.
There is no way the Repubicans can lose the House. You don't need polls to tell you that. The house is more gerrymandered than it was in 2000. If we did not lose the house in 2000 we are not going to lose it in 2002. The Democrats will have to do better than they did with Gore. There is far more Republican effort his year than their was in 2000. There is far less democratic effort. That can't be good for Democrats.
I can not imagine the economy being the big issue this year. The people who took baths in the stock market are mostly Republicans. The typical Democratic voter doesn't even have a checking account much less a broker. If the rich stock holders lost big bucks, the typical rank and file Democrat is happy not sad.
The high tech bubble burst on the left and right coasts... that is in Democrat territory. But that bubble has little effect in other areas of the US. The typical republican voter has not seen any bad economy that really effects him. In my own family my sons business has never been better. He is adding 7,000 square feet of space to his store. One of my step sons is a doctor. Business is great. My other step son is a chemist with a major manufacturing firm. He just got promoted to management. His company is expanding. He and my daughter just bought a new house. No one in the 'tator family is hurting.
Danger trumps overtime and job layoffs. I can tell you females were frightened by the sniper.They still are. I think the Walter Cronkite veiw of Saddam has zero traction. After the Gulf war no one over 25 believes that we would lose if go after Saddam alone. And trying to sell Americans that we are too weak or that we should subvert our national goals to the UN is just crazy. That is not where Americans go. Americans think we are in danger. When there is danger Americans want the danger removed. Living with danger because it is dangerous to remove it is not the way go get American support.
Lately I have been hearing lots of too close to call. We are not getting a lot of Demoratic party tracking polls released. But if they were good it would be much to the Democrats advantage to release them. The Media would really use them to help Democrats. Republicans have little reason to release good polls. The media will not play them well for Republicans. For republicans the generic too close to call is superior to releasing good news only to have the media spin it into bad.
I am also encouraged by Bush's efforts. No president can put his prestige on the line if he is apt or certain to lose. For 2 straight years all we would hear is bush is popular but that doesn't translate in to votes. That is why the Bush schedule is fluid. Presidents put their prestige on the line to increase the victory not to try to lessen a disaster.
There are also calls for McAuliffe to be replaced. Coaches about to win national championships do not have to face press rumors that they are going to be replaced.
Democrats have been trying to to change the agenda to domestic issues with not much luck. There were calls to fight bush on Iraq. Then there were calls to support him on Iraq but hedge. There have been strategy change after strategy change in this race. And all the changing had been Democratic changing.
People who are winning a race rarely change strategy. No one says...what we are doing is working so lets do something else. People do say what we are doing is not working lets try something else.
It is the Democrats who keep trying to change the topic ... to try to do something different. That usually means they are losing.
I think there is no way to lose the house. There is a good shot to take the senate. This is going to be a good Republican year.
This is not an issue that resonates. If bush says democrats won't pass. They say bush won't accept a good bill unless it removes workers rights.
The public does not know what is going on so the issue would likely benefit the Democrats. The media would surely spin it into a pro democrat issue.
Republicans have to always fight to enemies... the media and the Demorats. If the only thing the Republicans consider is Demorats, they will always be defeated by the media.
Republicans have to fight on issues they can win. Homeland defense is not a winning issue with the media and the Democrats against them on the issue.
Mr. Zogby has always had a good track record, but this year he is faced with a conflict that affects him deeply. He may not want to have it look like he was selling out his people. Almost no one in the Moslem community has had the nerve to face up to what is happening in the world today. Atleast they won't condemn it publicly.
The GOP will retain the House but the Senate will likely remain exactly the way it is, or even two Dem seats up.
Sink,
I've disagreed with just about everything you have ever posted, but you are correct on this one. I think the Pubbies will be the ones lined up to drink Kool-Aid on 11/6.
The Republican ramp-up on Wall Street will have done little to erase the pain of the economy at large. It's not their fault, but they will be the ones holding the bag for the economy.
Just try to find a painter, plumber, or mason who isn't booked for the next three months.
Just because this isn't a perfect job market for liberal guys in the northeast or on the west coast who decided to be computer jocks doesn't mean other people aren't working. Especially...the anti-smoking, anti-obesity trial lawyers.
I agree that the if the GOP doesn't have anybody as good at propaganda and PR as the DNC, they ought to lay low until they get something thay can handle.
Given the number of vote fraud posts today, it will be a miracle if we win ANYTHING, but I think we may have nipped some of the massive vote fraud in the bud. (Check out the sites regarding MD and SD absentee fraud alone--just amazing!)
Stocks up 4th week in a row!
Why, yes they are! How observant.
The Pubbies have done an exceptional job at manipulating the market for election gains. Clinton did it and now GWB got his playbook in order.
My guess is next week will see at least a 1000 point gain, as the obvious takes place. Pubbies will sweep the election and Sir Prints-a-lot will cut rates at least 50.
Shorts will buy, mutual funds will buy, Jose Six Pack will buy, Granny will buy (because fixed income is zero), and we are back to shoe-shine boys giving stock tips - ala 1999.
The worst econ news in quite some time passed in the last month, and the stocks have rallied. Earnings suck, valuations are stratospheric, unemployment is up, and the dollar is tanking - all conditions which make buying stocks at any price a real wonderment.
When this rally burns out, it is going to be fugly. Guess who will not be in any position of power when it does? The same party that was not in power from back in the 20s. Guess who gets to take the blame again?
Be careful what you wish for. The S&P has a P/E of 49, and no bull market has ever, EVER, started in any place on earth, at any time with a P/E of that level. Most bull markets have topped below that level.
Have fun.
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