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California Puzzle -- Poll Shows Simon Beating Davis
Creators Syndicate ^ | 10-21-02 | Bob Novak

Posted on 10/21/2002 2:48:11 AM PDT by navigator

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To: Gophack
I am rolling on the floor laughing my buttocks off. Because Davis was in Eureka today the Simon campaign ran the dioxin ad on the 5 PM local news because everyone will be watching for local coverage. BRILLIANT...
61 posted on 10/21/2002 5:16:25 PM PDT by tubebender
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To: Tony in Hawaii
1966
See also, from www.TomMcclintock.com:
Let's Go and Get it Back

September 29, 2002 • Speech by Senator Tom McClintock



The pundits say that we Republicans have an uphill fight. After all,

• We have a Democratic Governor with an Invincible Campaign machine behind him.

• The only constitutional office we still hold is the Secretary of State.

• Our most recent presidential nominee lost California by over a million votes.

• We're down to only 14 Republicans in the entire State Senate.

• We have only 31 Republicans in the State Assembly.

Folks, what I had just described, word for word, is exactly where we stood on this day in 1966

Think about that.

• Gov. Pat Brown was invincible. Four years before he had humiliated our candidate for governor, former vice president Richard Nixon.

• The only Republican in constitutional office was Secretary of State Frank Jordan.

• Barry Goldwater had lost the last presidential election in California by over a million votes.

• We had exactly the same number of State Senators as we have today and within one of the same number of Assembly members.

• Our new nominee, Ronald Reagan, had never held political office before. He had been under vicious personal attack throughout that summer for his alleged ties to the John Birch Society "and other extremists groups."

But something very strange happened in the weeks after Labor Day. People stopped thinking about the issues that were important to the media and began thinking about the issues that were important to them.

And on Election Day, The entire political landscape of California had changed fundamentally and permanently.

• We elected Ronald Reagan governor.

• Republicans swept every constitutional office except one.

• In a cause near and dear to my heart, a college professor named Hugh Flournoy beat incumbent state controller Alan Cranston.

• We made dramatic gains in both houses of the legislature and two years later took back majority control.

• We delivered majorities for the presidential ticket in the next six presidential elections in a row.

And the point I want to make is that our party is in an infinitely stronger position today than it was 36 years ago- because the case we can make for fundamental political change against this administration is far stronger and more compelling than the case that Ronald Reagan could make against Pat Brown...

-- snip --

...Ladies and gentlemen, we are the loyal opposition to a corrupt and incompetent administration that has utterly squandered our resources, overburdened our families, over-regulated our businesses and done enormous harm to the freedom and the prosperity that we once knew. And we, my fellow Republicans, are all that stands between that regime and the future of California.

In April of 1775, a column of British soldiers moved up the road from Boston. They mowed down the colonial militia at Lexington and Marched unhindered to Concord.

But something happened that day. Without phones or faxes or email, word spread to every village and hamlet, every farm and home - and spontaneously, American farmers and merchants left their families and gathered along that road to confront the most powerful army in the world. Not because they wanted to. But because they had to. Because the situation had become intolerable and could no longer be ignored.

I believe we are seeing the civic equivalent of that begin today in California. Men and women who have never cared much for politics are today turning their attention to the ravages of this regime. They are becoming politically active not because they want to - but because they have to - because they are tired of seeing their government sold to the highest bidder - because they are tired of watching this governor spend a larger share of their incomes than ever before and seeing all of it squandered.

Folks, let this election be our generation's road from Concord. Let every one of us do everything we can to rise to the occasion that this election presents. Let us carry this message with whatever time and money we can spare. Let us look back on these 37 days as the most productive political involvement we have ever invested.

We can make this state over again. And we can restore to our children what has been taken from us. Growing up here forty years ago, I remember a California where electricity was clean and cheap and abundant, where the schools were the finest in the country, where the highway system was the envy of the world, where people had the freedom to pursue their dreams. We had that state once. It has been taken from us.

Now Ladies and Gentlemen, if you are ready, let's go and get it back.


62 posted on 10/21/2002 5:35:25 PM PDT by RonDog
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To: Gophack
I just watched ABC23 out of Redding Ca. they covered Davis' visit to Chico. The R's got good coverage but the coverage of the Eureka visit showed many R's on the street and got more coverage than Davis Also the enviros got some coverage against Davis. More than fair to our guy.
63 posted on 10/21/2002 5:40:17 PM PDT by tubebender
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To: RonDog
Hey, I just have happy memories of being 5 years old, that's all. :)

64 posted on 10/21/2002 6:14:20 PM PDT by Tony in Hawaii
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To: Grampa Dave
I am neither conservative nor liberal, but a center right republican. I just feel Simon and our team can win. It may be easy to surrender, but we have to give a fight.

I want to win. I want Simon to win. We have to bring California back to life.

65 posted on 10/21/2002 6:40:04 PM PDT by Munson
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To: litany_of_lies
Rove was behind Richard Riordan's campaign. He felt the way to beat Davis was with the "Friend of Bill" RINO Los Angeles mayor. Although it is true Riordan would have put a whoopaS$$ on Davis, what good would it have done?
66 posted on 10/21/2002 11:50:57 PM PDT by capitan_refugio
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To: Gophack
Inspiring words in your post. And I had not heard about this:

Still, Simon raised more money during the last reporting period! ($11 million to $10 million). The press doesn't report THAT, do they?

That's a good sign indeed!

67 posted on 10/22/2002 4:55:10 AM PDT by Coop
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To: daviddennis
I read one earlier poll that said Davis was at 48% and Simon at 33. So the new Simon ads have pushed Davis down to 33 and Simon up to 34.

You're giving way too much credit to those ads... and to the various polls. :-)

68 posted on 10/22/2002 4:56:37 AM PDT by Coop
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To: navigator
Excellent...
69 posted on 10/22/2002 4:57:17 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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To: Munson
I want to win. I want Simon to win. We have to bring California back to life.

You sound like the type that's doing something about it. Good on ya!

70 posted on 10/22/2002 5:00:24 AM PDT by Coop
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To: tubebender
Great to hear ... I was watching the news last night and they had a 30 second blurb on Simon getting the Farm Bureau endorsement, and nothing about Davis. This was KOVR out of Sacramento.
71 posted on 10/22/2002 9:21:17 AM PDT by Gophack
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To: Coop; daviddennis
You need to compare the same polls. The CTA tracking has Simon up or down one and was done last week, during the week. I have never thought that polls on the weekend were as effective because whole demographic groups aren't home -- people with kids, for example, will be doing soccer games, gymnastics, etc., etc. People with kids tend to be more conservative. People go out more on the weekends, go out of town, etc., etc.

The PPIC poll should be compared with the last PPIC poll which shows that Simon went up three, Davis down one, for a net Simon gain of four points. If we gain four points a week for the next two weeks, we're at a statistical deadheat.

Don't be discouraged. The CTA tracking is definitely more accurate, the SurveyUSA/PPIC poll "says" it's likely voters, but it's self-identified likely voters as opposed to those taken from the voter rolls.

Go Simon!

72 posted on 10/22/2002 9:25:41 AM PDT by Gophack
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To: Gophack
How is Simon doing with his TV/radio advertising?
73 posted on 10/22/2002 9:28:06 AM PDT by Coop
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Whether Davis tries for the Democratic nomination in 2004 will be determined by his re-election effort this year.

Gay "Red" Davis, running for President of the U.S.? ...LOL. Presidents sometimes have no character - evidence B. Clinton and J. Carter - but they always have some sort of personality. Gay Davis has nothing. He's as bland as humanly possible.

74 posted on 10/22/2002 9:33:41 AM PDT by Mr. Mojo
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To: Coop
I don't know, but I can say that I have seen as many Simon commercials as Davis commercials in the last week, which is a positive. For the first time I saw the Dioxin hit on Davis, and I'll say that it was a devastating ad. The visuals are incredible. I heard that the ad ran during the World Series, smart move ... double California teams, north and south, great penetration.

I've seen the headline ad hits on Davis, which a friend of mine said were effective because they had no (or little) sound, and he turned to see what was happening on the t.v. and saw the ads. I hope they put up more Bill Simon himself ads, because I think that he's effective in selling himself -- people want to see him.

I don't know anything about radio, I don't listen much.

75 posted on 10/22/2002 9:58:05 AM PDT by Gophack
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To: Gophack
I appreciate the report. I've read about the ads via his website, but it's nice to get some feedback. It's especially encouraging to hear that Simon is at least approximating Davis' coverage now.
76 posted on 10/22/2002 10:01:01 AM PDT by Coop
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To: Gophack
I haven't seen ONE Davis sign on anyone's lawn, but every day I see Simon signs popping up in my neighborhood ... in places I least expect them. In every parking lot I drive into -- the gym, the store, and even a furniture store over the weekend with less than 25 cars parked -- I see a Simon bumper sticker.

Come to think of it, I think you're right. The Davis signs are in the medians, where he does't belong.

77 posted on 10/22/2002 1:36:48 PM PDT by let freedom sing
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To: navigator; ElkGroveDan
The Devil's in the details, and in the California State Capitol-- Dump Davis. Go Simon!!
78 posted on 10/22/2002 1:42:23 PM PDT by let freedom sing
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To: Gophack
I don't know anything about radio, I don't listen much.

It's a whole new world!! We have three conservative talk radio stations in the Sakatomato area and that's my kind of choice. Michael Medved is discussing the murder of the bay area transvestite and "hate"crime on KCET 1350 AM-- RIGHT NOW.

79 posted on 10/22/2002 1:52:46 PM PDT by let freedom sing
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To: let freedom sing; Gophack
What do I know--1380 KTKZ.
80 posted on 10/22/2002 1:57:59 PM PDT by let freedom sing
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