[Coop]

I read one earlier poll that said Davis was at 48% and Simon at 33. So the new Simon ads have pushed Davis down to 33 and Simon up to 34.

You're giving way too much credit to those ads... and to the various polls. :-)

[Gophack]

You need to compare the same polls. The CTA tracking has Simon up or down one and was done last week, during the week. I have never thought that polls on the weekend were as effective because whole demographic groups aren't home -- people with kids, for example, will be doing soccer games, gymnastics, etc., etc. People with kids tend to be more conservative. People go out more on the weekends, go out of town, etc., etc.

The PPIC poll should be compared with the last PPIC poll which shows that Simon went up three, Davis down one, for a net Simon gain of four points. If we gain four points a week for the next two weeks, we're at a statistical deadheat.

Don't be discouraged. The CTA tracking is definitely more accurate, the SurveyUSA/PPIC poll "says" it's likely voters, but it's self-identified likely voters as opposed to those taken from the voter rolls.

Go Simon!